This will be kind of stream-of-consciousness as I go through my indicators. I have a lot of them so bear with me.
Gold, Copper, Oil, Gasoline, Heating Oil, and Natural Gas were all down. The yen and Swiss franc were up big, 2% and 1% respectively. (Nice hedges for me, I added them in the last month as a hedge for systemic risk. British pound flat. Canadian dollar lower. Yuan still appreciating… controlled appreciation there.
Shift at the tails of the of the distribution of stock returns, even if the mean has only moved 3%+. More new lows than highs, but still more stocks over the 200-day MA than under it.
Investment grade credit spreads in CDS gapped out 4.5 bp on the IBOXX 7 deal. 10 year swap spreads moved out 2 basis points, which is more notable when they usually tighten when yields fall, due to mortgage hedging. Bond volatility measures gapped out, but not severely.
The Merger Fund dropped 31 basis points — a very good indicator on how the arbs are doing. My oscillator, which is a knockoff of a famous one that Cramer refers to, had the worst single day that I have ever seen, but the 10-day MA indicates that we are not oversold yet.
Anticipated inflation during the 2012-2017 period fell like a stone to a 52-week low. The inversion at the short end of the curve deepened, while the long end lost some inversion. The TED spread jumped 7 bp. The VIX jumped more than it should have, given its ordinary relationship to returns on the S&P.
Okay, now. Putting it all together, yesterday was an expression of :
- Decreased global demand from China.
- Increased perception of systemic risk.
- Increased likelihood of Fed loosening.
So what does this mean for today? Asian markets are down today, but Shanghai is holding its ground as I write. I would expect to see European markets flattish, and the US market to have a small volatile rally today. Treasury notes (excluding effects from the GDP report) should sell off.
We’ll see how it all works out by 4PM. I’ll have more for you later.