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At my blog there are two main purposes: teaching investors about better investing through risk control, and tying all of the markets into a coherent whole.
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The Broad Market Portfolio was off 1.8% today. Three stocks were up, and 32 down. Down over 4% were Deerfield Triarc, Barclays plc, SABESP, and Lithia Automotive.
The US market is only somewhat oversold. Given the weakness in the Asian markets, I would not be surprised to see more weakness tomorrow.
Full disclosure: long DFR BCS SBS and LAD
Copyright David Merkel (c) 2007-2008
Disclaimer: David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, or in my writings at RealMoney is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Additionally, David may occasionally write about accounting, actuarial, insurance, and tax topics, but nothing written here or on RealMoney is meant to be formal "advice" in those areas. Consult a reputable professional in those areas to get personal, tailored advice that meets the specialized needs that David can have no knowledge of.The Aleph Blog is proudly powered by WordPress
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March 14th, 200710:26 pm at
You’ve said here and on RealMoney that you think the subprime meltdown will be contained to subprime lenders and not spread to the broader financial/banking system. According to Bill Fleckenstein, Citi today admitted to $50 billion in subprime exposure. If true, does that cause to reconsider? I can see an argument that it wouldn’t since even a complete wipeout would be less than half of shareholders equity, but it could still make waves.
March 15th, 200712:12 am at
Fleck (like some other financial commentators that I know) tends to be a sensationalist. I would ask him where he got that figure, because I don’t see it in my news feeds on Bloomberg.
If Citi has $50 billion worth of exposure, that is about as large as Cramer’s dirty dozen as a group. If true, would that make me change my mind? It would make me think again. Citigroup is big enough to affect the entire US banking system. Still, I think they could survive $50 billion of subprime exposure, but could they do it with other problems as well?March 15th, 20079:03 pm at
Fleck admitted today to (a) being taken in by a hoax, and (b) even if it wasn’t hoax being out by an order of magnitude.
Thanks
March 15th, 200711:25 pm at
Poor Fleck. I like the guy, but when one gets too bearish or bulllish, it gets easier to get fooled, because you only look for stuff that fits your paradigm.