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> <channel><title>Comments on: What Credit Deterioration Looks Like Prior to Defaults</title> <atom:link href="http://alephblog.com/2007/06/09/what-credit-deterioration-looks-like-prior-to-defaults/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" /><link>http://alephblog.com/2007/06/09/what-credit-deterioration-looks-like-prior-to-defaults/</link> <description>Helping Institutions and Ordinary People Invest Better by Focusing on Risk Control</description> <lastBuildDate>Fri, 25 May 2012 03:46:25 +0000</lastBuildDate> <sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod> <sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency> <generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1</generator> <item><title>By: Estragon</title><link>http://alephblog.com/2007/06/09/what-credit-deterioration-looks-like-prior-to-defaults/comment-page-1/#comment-1269</link> <dc:creator>Estragon</dc:creator> <pubDate>Wed, 13 Jun 2007 16:49:38 +0000</pubDate> <guid
isPermaLink="false">http://alephblog.com/?p=137#comment-1269</guid> <description>Thanks, that&#039;s helpful.</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks, that&#8217;s helpful.</p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item><title>By: David Merkel</title><link>http://alephblog.com/2007/06/09/what-credit-deterioration-looks-like-prior-to-defaults/comment-page-1/#comment-1247</link> <dc:creator>David Merkel</dc:creator> <pubDate>Mon, 11 Jun 2007 21:08:19 +0000</pubDate> <guid
isPermaLink="false">http://alephblog.com/?p=137#comment-1247</guid> <description>The private equity controls the company until it goes into default, and a reorganization plan approved by the bankruptcy judge reapportions the ownership of the firm to the debtholders.
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The class of debtholders that would gain control would vary.  It is usually the class that would receive partial payment if there was a liquidation (with the more junior class getting zero, and the more senior class getting full payment).
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The tightest debt covenants belong to the senior bank financing.  They will look at a firm in crisis and ask the following: if we let this run, how likely and how big would any impairment of capital be?  If we waive the covenants for now, what payment or additional security can we receive?  Let the junior debt suffer, we are in the driver&#039;s seat.
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Those that offer junior debt financing are often at the mercy of the banks on the one side, and the private equity on the other.  They rarely get control unless the company goes through the bankruptcy process.</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The private equity controls the company until it goes into default, and a reorganization plan approved by the bankruptcy judge reapportions the ownership of the firm to the debtholders.</p><p
/> The class of debtholders that would gain control would vary.  It is usually the class that would receive partial payment if there was a liquidation (with the more junior class getting zero, and the more senior class getting full payment).</p><p
/> The tightest debt covenants belong to the senior bank financing.  They will look at a firm in crisis and ask the following: if we let this run, how likely and how big would any impairment of capital be?  If we waive the covenants for now, what payment or additional security can we receive?  Let the junior debt suffer, we are in the driver&#8217;s seat.</p><p
/> Those that offer junior debt financing are often at the mercy of the banks on the one side, and the private equity on the other.  They rarely get control unless the company goes through the bankruptcy process.</p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item><title>By: Estragon</title><link>http://alephblog.com/2007/06/09/what-credit-deterioration-looks-like-prior-to-defaults/comment-page-1/#comment-1245</link> <dc:creator>Estragon</dc:creator> <pubDate>Mon, 11 Jun 2007 20:25:31 +0000</pubDate> <guid
isPermaLink="false">http://alephblog.com/?p=137#comment-1245</guid> <description>Do you know how the relationship between classes of LBO funders works?  In particular, I&#039;m wondering who exercises functional control if things start looking spooky.  The senior rated tranches obviously have first call on proceeds, but how are they treated in terms of pre-default functional and operational control?
If it turns out that the senior holders have control, presumably they&#039;d be inclined to call a deteriorating play early.  Junior holders would be 100% at risk early in the process, so would presumably try to push default into the future, even if it prejudices the position of senior holders.</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Do you know how the relationship between classes of LBO funders works?  In particular, I&#8217;m wondering who exercises functional control if things start looking spooky.  The senior rated tranches obviously have first call on proceeds, but how are they treated in terms of pre-default functional and operational control?</p><p>If it turns out that the senior holders have control, presumably they&#8217;d be inclined to call a deteriorating play early.  Junior holders would be 100% at risk early in the process, so would presumably try to push default into the future, even if it prejudices the position of senior holders.</p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item><title>By: David Merkel</title><link>http://alephblog.com/2007/06/09/what-credit-deterioration-looks-like-prior-to-defaults/comment-page-1/#comment-1244</link> <dc:creator>David Merkel</dc:creator> <pubDate>Mon, 11 Jun 2007 15:30:15 +0000</pubDate> <guid
isPermaLink="false">http://alephblog.com/?p=137#comment-1244</guid> <description>Yes, I would expect them to widen, but not linearly.  The banks and hedge funds are still very willing to fund LBO debt at these levels, and perhaps tighter.  Spread widening should be gradual until we get an big event that changes the perceived riskiness of lending to LBOs.</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes, I would expect them to widen, but not linearly.  The banks and hedge funds are still very willing to fund LBO debt at these levels, and perhaps tighter.  Spread widening should be gradual until we get an big event that changes the perceived riskiness of lending to LBOs.</p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item><title>By: Ed Rombach</title><link>http://alephblog.com/2007/06/09/what-credit-deterioration-looks-like-prior-to-defaults/comment-page-1/#comment-1243</link> <dc:creator>Ed Rombach</dc:creator> <pubDate>Mon, 11 Jun 2007 14:37:59 +0000</pubDate> <guid
isPermaLink="false">http://alephblog.com/?p=137#comment-1243</guid> <description>A serious rise in defaults may be 3 years away as you suggest, but would you expect to see credit spreads widen substantially between now and then?</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A serious rise in defaults may be 3 years away as you suggest, but would you expect to see credit spreads widen substantially between now and then?</p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> </channel> </rss>
