Changes in My Insurance Longs

I have updated my insurance longs over at Stockpickr.com. (At present, I have no shorts, but if I did, I would not reveal them. Check my disclosure policy for details.) Here are the major changes:

I have sold Reinsurance Group of America, Allstate, Scottish Re (there was only a stub left), Endurance, Allied World, and Employers Holdings. I have bought Safety, Aspen, Argonaut, and PXRE. These changes have take place over the past few months. I have not mentioned them until now, because my employer was still building positions in the names; we are done now.
Why the changes? Here goes: with the exception of Scottish Re, I still like all of the companies and their management teams. By name:

  • Allied World and Endurance — nice runs. Not sure I want to hold them through storm season.
  • Aspen is a cheap substitute for AWH and ENH, maintaining some of my property exposure cheaper.
  • Argonaut and PXRE — merging. Argonaut got PXRE cheaply, and the deal makes good long term sense. Argonaut re-domiciles in Bermuda, and slow lowers its tax rate. It also further diversifies by writing property reinsurance, but not too much.
  • Allstate — I still own this in the broad market portfolio, but that has different objectives than the hedge fund that I work for. It has a longer time horizon. In the short run, Allstate will be pressured by increasing competition in the personal lines space. On the other hand, what a cheap valuation. I like it!
  • Scottish Re — can’t write new business. Very opaque earnings model. It is a pig in a poke, and I don’t think one can trust the book value.
  • Employers Holdings — I have to beg a mea culpa here, and say that my initial article on RealMoney was wrong. My goof? The prospectus was complex, badly worded, and I mis-estimated the true share count. After figuring out the true share count, I realized that the stock was fairly valued, not cheap. Apologies to all who went in with me on this; at least if I have to make an error, better to make it when no big losses are made.
  • Reinsurance Group of America — a real class act, but past my valuation parameters for now.
  • Safety Insurance — Very well run pure play personal lines insurer in Massachusetts, and cheap! Insulated from the general competition in personal lines in the USA.

Anyway, that’s what I am up to in insurance now, and how my portfolio differs from where I was in the first quarter.

Full disclosure: long AHL, AGII, ALL, PXT, and SAFT






bloggerbuzzdeliciousdiggfacebookgooglelinkedinmyspacenetvibesnewsvineredditslashdotstumbleupontechnoratitwitteryahoo
Insurance, Value Investing | RSS 2.0 |

Comments are closed.

Disclaimer


David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures.


Also, though David runs Aleph Investments, LLC, this blog is not a part of that business. This blog exists to educate investors, and give something back. It is not intended as advertisement for Aleph Investments; David is not soliciting business through it. When David, or a client of David's has an interest in a security mentioned, full disclosure will be given, as has been past practice for all that David does on the web. Disclosure is the breakfast of champions.


Additionally, David may occasionally write about accounting, actuarial, insurance, and tax topics, but nothing written here, at RealMoney, or anywhere else is meant to be formal "advice" in those areas. Consult a reputable professional in those areas to get personal, tailored advice that meets the specialized needs that David can have no knowledge of.

 Subscribe in a reader

 Subscribe in a reader (comments)

Subscribe to RSS Feed

Enter your Email


Preview | Powered by FeedBlitz

Seeking Alpha Certified

Top markets blogs award

The Aleph Blog

Top markets blogs

InstantBull.com: Bull, Boards & Blogs

Blog Directory - Blogged

IStockAnalyst

Benzinga.com supporter

All Economists Contributor

Business Finance Blogs
OnToplist is optimized by SEO
Add blog to our blog directory.

Page optimized by WP Minify WordPress Plugin