I’ll give this one more quarter to see how well my readers like this, but here are the earnings in insurance so far this quarter. As you can tell, I am doing it a little different this time, in providing a file, and less qualitative commentary. It’s the same data that I provided last time, but now you can do your own slicing and dicing.
What affects insurance equity prices when earnings are released? Three things: guidance changes (most powerful), earnings surprises (powerful), and revenue growth. (When the market can’t decide otherwise, they like to see top line growth. I think that’s dumb, but give the market what it wants, then it will change what it wants on you…)
Trends so far:
- Exposure to UK property with the floods is a negative.
- Personal lines are doing badly, both bottom and top lines, aside from specialty areas.
- Commercial lines are still winning. When do premiums finally get below technical pricing levels?
- I like Brown and Brown. Wish I owned some. Hope no one buys it tomorrow.
- Mortgage insurers are weak, but how much can they really get whacked when they are so near book value?
Full disclosure: long ALL
David,
Please continue to do this, I find it very helpful.
thanks for this david