Insurance Earnings So Far 2Q07 — Part I

I’ll give this one more quarter to see how well my readers like this, but here are the earnings in insurance so far this quarter.  As you can tell, I am doing it a little different this time, in providing a file, and less qualitative commentary.  It’s the same data that I provided last time, but now you can do your own slicing and dicing.

What affects insurance equity prices when earnings are released?  Three things: guidance changes (most powerful), earnings surprises (powerful), and revenue growth. (When the market can’t decide otherwise, they like to see top line growth.  I think that’s dumb, but give the market what it wants, then it will change what it wants on you…)

Trends so far:

  • Exposure to UK property with the floods is a negative.
  • Personal lines are doing badly, both bottom and top lines, aside from specialty areas.
  • Commercial lines are still winning.  When do premiums finally get below technical pricing levels?
  • I like Brown and Brown.  Wish I owned some.  Hope no one buys it tomorrow. 🙂
  • Mortgage insurers are weak, but how much can they really get whacked when they are so near book value?


Full disclosure: long ALL