This is the last numeric post at my blog.  After I write this, I will switch over to posts using the date and title to create the URL.  I liked the numbers, because it gave me a sense of progress, but my posts will index better with words rather than numbers (hat tip to Dr. Jeff Miller).  Also, the numbers are a little artificial, in that anytime I upload a file, it uses up a number, so this isn’t exactly my 200th post (more like number 160); it is just number 200 the way WordPress counts it.

The Aleph Blog is now five months old, and in some ways the blog has exceeded my expectations.  I never expected to get as large of a readership so fast, and I did not expect to get picked up so much by other bloggers and blog aggregators. The response has been gratifying.  What can I say but I’m humbled by it all.

Now, I wish I had more time to blog.  Blogging must sit behind God, family, church, and work for me.  That said, I am trying to put out quality original content, trying to make sense of confusing markets in an era of securitization and derivatives.  Also, I’m eclectic.  I cover a wide area of issues in markets and macroeconomics, and you get to watch my portfolio moves for the three portfolios that I run.

I’m open to advice on where to go from here.  This is what I am presently planning:

• Expand the blogroll to better reflect all that I read.
• Build out my books page, complete with a little Amazon store.
• Activate Feedburner.
• Send polite notes to just a few more bloggers who might not know about this new blog.  The best articles page is a simple thing to point them to.
• Articles: I’ve got one coming soon on the VIX.  Others that will come: How markets and traffic are similar, When to be flexible versus rigid, hidden correlations in strategy, problems in academic finance, rescuing Capitalism from capitalists, and more.
• My usual coverage of current topics; maybe some book reviews.
• Add something that verifies my performance, so that I can mention it here.
• One more thing: a stock picking contest, akin to the Value Line contest done in the mid-1980s, with a prize to the winner.  This contest will test skill in picking stocks, rather than luck in trading, as so many contests do.  Sponsors are welcome to apply, otherwise the prize will come out of my pocket, which means it won’t be large.  A sponsor will receive free advertising on my site for the duration of the contest.

I view this blog as an option on a business.  That option may come into the money or it may not.  For one thing, it is my guess that I will not get a newsletter off the ground.  I have interest from maybe 25 readers, and I would need 100 to make a go of it.  It is somewhat more likely that I may gain other employment, particularly if my friend’s health insurance company gets venture funding.  That is by no means certain, though, so I am open to other job possibilities so long as I can do them largely from my home?  Need an equity or bond manager in an institutional setting?  I have done well with both.  Do you have a wealthy friend that would like to seed a new manager in exchange for preferential terms?  E-mail me, please.

Finally, I want to thank those who helped me get this blog moving.  Thanks to Charles Kirk, the guys at Abnormal Returns, James Altucher, Barry Ritholtz, the guys at Seeking Alpha, and Roger Nusbaum.  You’ve sent the traffic my way, and thanks.  Also thanks to Bill Luby, Dr. Jeff Miller, James Kingsland, Richard Todd, Value Blog Review, and the Unknown Professor.  Finally, thanks most of all to my wife, children, and Jesus.

I would be nowhere without my readers, particularly those who comment.  If you have suggestions for me, send them my way.  I write for all of you; your opinions help direct my writing.

I may or may not get to my part 2 on speculation because of the market action today.  I will get to that tomorrow.  Today I think it would be best for my readers if I just run through my market indicators.  Here goes:

1. My knockoff of a famous oscillator indicates that we are ready for a short-term bounce.  That bounce may have started at 3PM yesterday, when volume climaxed near the low of the day.  That biases me long in the short run.
2. On the other hand, the VIX under-reacted to the fall yesterday, indicating that not enough player reached for puts to hedge their positions.
3. The Merger Fund has had a bigger correction than in February-March.  It is likely due to difficulties with deal financing.  Nonetheless, it is an indicator of how the gears of the market are jamming up.
4. Bond volatility, whether measured by the MOVE or LBOX indexes, indicate a more volatile environment.  No surprise that prime mortgage securities have been hit.
5. Credit spreads have widened dramatically.  Yields are another matter.  With the fall in Treasury yields, yields on bonds single-A and above have fallen in yield, whereas bonds BBB and below have risen in yield.  High credit quality corporations have a real advantage in this market.
6. The emerging markets have gotten whacked, wholesale.
7. The Euro and Yen are strong, and looking at falling forward interest rate differentials, threaten to get stronger.
8. There is some liquidation happening in some carry trades.  The New Zealand Dollar has gotten whacked versus the yen over the past two days.  In general, the last three days have differentiated between countries with weak trade positions, and those with strong positions.
9. Closed-end floating rate bank loan funds have gotten hammered recently.  Another casualty of the LBO financing problem, but worse than the raw economics of the funds would indicate.  Prices are falling much harder than NAVs.
10. The FOMC seems tight at present, with Total Fed Credit growing slowly.  Fed funds has missed the target on the upside on average since the last meeting, and no permanent open market operations have happened.
11. Equity and mortgage REITs have both been hit, with equity REITs hit harder (but still expensive), and mortgage REITs nearer to fair value on average.

That’s all for now.  In general, we are oversold, and should get a bounce Friday or Monday.  I favor Friday. This bounce will be short-term in nature, so don’t put a lot of long exposure on for now.