Comments on: The FOMC as a Social Institution, Part 2 http://alephblog.com/2007/08/17/the-fomc-as-a-social-institution-part-2/ Helping Institutions and Ordinary People Invest Better by Focusing on Risk Control Fri, 25 May 2012 03:46:25 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: alephblog » Blog Archive » Looking Beyond the Three Percent Horizonhttp://alephblog.com/2007/08/17/the-fomc-as-a-social-institution-part-2/comment-page-1/#comment-26992 alephblog » Blog Archive » Looking Beyond the Three Percent Horizon Tue, 29 Jun 2010 00:35:28 +0000 http://alephblog.com/2007/08/17/the-fomc-as-a-social-institution-part-2/#comment-26992 [...] Fed policy in a while, so I thought it was time to do an update. Five months have passed since my 3% sometime in 2008 call was made, and now it is becoming the received orthodoxy. That’s why I have to ask what [...] [...] Fed policy in a while, so I thought it was time to do an update. Five months have passed since my 3% sometime in 2008 call was made, and now it is becoming the received orthodoxy. That’s why I have to ask what [...]

]]> By: AllanFhttp://alephblog.com/2007/08/17/the-fomc-as-a-social-institution-part-2/comment-page-1/#comment-3284 AllanF Mon, 20 Aug 2007 20:08:36 +0000 http://alephblog.com/2007/08/17/the-fomc-as-a-social-institution-part-2/#comment-3284 I too found this post very useful and spent the weekend thinking about 1) will we have another asset bubble 2) if so which asset? 1) Maybe not. I keep getting hung-up on the housing/mortgage problem at the root. Today Doug Kass at Real Money very persuasively spelled the differences between 1998, 1990, 2001, and today. My bias is to stay very defensive and keep broad market exposure (which is the only kind I can have in my 401k) to a minimum so long as cash is paying over 4%. 2) But if we do, I think it is going to be in commodities. They seem to be the strong horses and if you posit that rate cuts help the strongest the most, I think that means commodities. Additionally, I think increasing global affluence, particularly in China, is going to keep the wind at the commodity producer's backs. So, fwiw, my investment thesis for the next 6 months is stay toward a fixed-income bias, while watch for the possibility of a developing bear market. Pick at commodity producers on significant stock-market dips. A reckon strategically, I am not far from David's view (which I reckon is why I am here :-), tactically, I am more actively trading in the accounts I can control, while staying in cash in the accounts which I can only choose among limited mutual fund offerings. I too found this post very useful and spent the weekend thinking about 1) will we have another asset bubble 2) if so which asset?

1) Maybe not. I keep getting hung-up on the housing/mortgage problem at the root. Today Doug Kass at Real Money very persuasively spelled the differences between 1998, 1990, 2001, and today. My bias is to stay very defensive and keep broad market exposure (which is the only kind I can have in my 401k) to a minimum so long as cash is paying over 4%.

2) But if we do, I think it is going to be in commodities. They seem to be the strong horses and if you posit that rate cuts help the strongest the most, I think that means commodities. Additionally, I think increasing global affluence, particularly in China, is going to keep the wind at the commodity producer’s backs.

So, fwiw, my investment thesis for the next 6 months is stay toward a fixed-income bias, while watch for the possibility of a developing bear market. Pick at commodity producers on significant stock-market dips.

A reckon strategically, I am not far from David’s view (which I reckon is why I am here :-) , tactically, I am more actively trading in the accounts I can control, while staying in cash in the accounts which I can only choose among limited mutual fund offerings.

]]> By: PaulinKansasCityhttp://alephblog.com/2007/08/17/the-fomc-as-a-social-institution-part-2/comment-page-1/#comment-3142 PaulinKansasCity Sat, 18 Aug 2007 18:07:54 +0000 http://alephblog.com/2007/08/17/the-fomc-as-a-social-institution-part-2/#comment-3142 These are great comments and helpful. I have been looking at taking advantage of the discounts in high quality fixed income/bank loan type closed end fund portfolios (your spreadsheet agreat aid here) plus making sure everyone has exposure to non- US dollar debt for client portfolios. Have a great weekend These are great comments and helpful. I have been looking at taking advantage of the discounts in high quality fixed income/bank loan type closed end fund portfolios (your spreadsheet agreat aid here) plus making sure everyone has exposure to non- US dollar debt for client portfolios. Have a great weekend

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