Comments on: Time for the Next Portfolio Reshaping http://alephblog.com/2008/01/11/time-for-the-next-portfolio-reshaping/ Helping Institutions and Ordinary People Invest Better by Focusing on Risk Control Wed, 17 Mar 2010 19:51:52 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Bill aka NO DooDahs! http://alephblog.com/2008/01/11/time-for-the-next-portfolio-reshaping/comment-page-1/#comment-16542 Bill aka NO DooDahs! Fri, 18 Jan 2008 02:23:41 +0000 http://alephblog.com/2008/01/11/time-for-the-next-portfolio-reshaping/#comment-16542 Bump! For comment #4 re: backtesting. Bump! For comment #4 re: backtesting.

]]> By: Bill aka NO DooDahs! http://alephblog.com/2008/01/11/time-for-the-next-portfolio-reshaping/comment-page-1/#comment-16485 Bill aka NO DooDahs! Sun, 13 Jan 2008 11:35:12 +0000 http://alephblog.com/2008/01/11/time-for-the-next-portfolio-reshaping/#comment-16485 Have you backtested whether a purely mechanical screening + ranking algorithm would have outperformed you discretionary choices over time? ... similar vein, tracked the performance of the tickers that "almost" made it to your portfolio? Just curious, it's always a good thing to think about for traders (like yourself) who are heavily rules-based, but still apply significant amounts of discretion. Have you backtested whether a purely mechanical screening + ranking algorithm would have outperformed you discretionary choices over time? … similar vein, tracked the performance of the tickers that “almost” made it to your portfolio? Just curious, it’s always a good thing to think about for traders (like yourself) who are heavily rules-based, but still apply significant amounts of discretion.

]]> By: Brian Powers http://alephblog.com/2008/01/11/time-for-the-next-portfolio-reshaping/comment-page-1/#comment-16479 Brian Powers Sat, 12 Jan 2008 18:09:52 +0000 http://alephblog.com/2008/01/11/time-for-the-next-portfolio-reshaping/#comment-16479 Of the securities you mentioned above I have recently added to my GW and FNF positions. Both are at extremely low valuations. I do not expect an immediate turnaround, but both have strong management teams for the long term. I also have a 1/2 sized position in GS that I am not currently looking to add to (unless it got back to the $150-160 range). This is a best in breed company which I originally started buying at the end of the summer. This was one of those stocks I always kicked myself over and over again for not buying. I finally had the opportunity amidst the credit woes to buy at what I determined to be a reasonable valuation. Additionally, I started a position in VFC around $64 two weeks ago. I added a little this week to bring it to a 1/2 sized position. I was looking at JCP also, but went with VFC for retail exposure. The reason was that JCP is still spending to open stores. I feel we are already "over stored" in the retail space. Further, VFC's dividend had gotten to a very attractive level. In the short term, I made the right choice as VFC was up 11.85% this week while JCP was up 1.1% after accounting for a $0.20 dividend on the 01/08/08 ex-date. Of course, I intend all of these positions as long term holdings. Of the securities you mentioned above I have recently added to my GW and FNF positions. Both are at extremely low valuations. I do not expect an immediate turnaround, but both have strong management teams for the long term.

I also have a 1/2 sized position in GS that I am not currently looking to add to (unless it got back to the $150-160 range). This is a best in breed company which I originally started buying at the end of the summer. This was one of those stocks I always kicked myself over and over again for not buying. I finally had the opportunity amidst the credit woes to buy at what I determined to be a reasonable valuation.

Additionally, I started a position in VFC around $64 two weeks ago. I added a little this week to bring it to a 1/2 sized position. I was looking at JCP also, but went with VFC for retail exposure. The reason was that JCP is still spending to open stores. I feel we are already “over stored” in the retail space. Further, VFC’s dividend had gotten to a very attractive level. In the short term, I made the right choice as VFC was up 11.85% this week while JCP was up 1.1% after accounting for a $0.20 dividend on the 01/08/08 ex-date. Of course, I intend all of these positions as long term holdings.

]]> By: Steven Milos http://alephblog.com/2008/01/11/time-for-the-next-portfolio-reshaping/comment-page-1/#comment-16478 Steven Milos Sat, 12 Jan 2008 17:52:28 +0000 http://alephblog.com/2008/01/11/time-for-the-next-portfolio-reshaping/#comment-16478 David, One thing that strikes me is the number of the potential tickers in your list; it seems much, much larger than previous rebalancings. It's anecdotal, and everything depends on how earnings how up in a recession, but a lot of stuff is cheap, and getting cheaper. Secondly, you don't list Valero (VLO) on your list this time, but it has been coming down along with the other refiners. It's scheduled to report Q4 on Jan.31, and the numbers probably won't be very good. In the past, buying VLO in January has often been a good trade, as the gasoline market strengthens into Spring. I don't own it yet, and am also considering TSO, which is on your list. Have a great weekend, Steve David,

One thing that strikes me is the number of the potential tickers in your list; it seems much, much larger than previous rebalancings. It’s anecdotal, and everything depends on how earnings how up in a recession, but a lot of stuff is cheap, and getting cheaper.

Secondly, you don’t list Valero (VLO) on your list this time, but it has been coming down along with the other refiners. It’s scheduled to report Q4 on Jan.31, and the numbers probably won’t be very good. In the past, buying VLO in January has often been a good trade, as the gasoline market strengthens into Spring. I don’t own it yet, and am also considering TSO, which is on your list.

Have a great weekend,

Steve

]]> By: Brent http://alephblog.com/2008/01/11/time-for-the-next-portfolio-reshaping/comment-page-1/#comment-16476 Brent Sat, 12 Jan 2008 15:12:40 +0000 http://alephblog.com/2008/01/11/time-for-the-next-portfolio-reshaping/#comment-16476 David, I agree, frustrating times for Value Investors (especially small caps), but there are a lot of good companies with a lot of value in your list. The key here is to focus on the process and the results will come. I look at this time period as an opportunity to upgrade my portfolio into better companies at cheaper prices. One you may want to look given your propensity for insurance is Standard Life in the UK. They are back below their IPO price, business is growing and the Pound is down. David,

I agree, frustrating times for Value Investors (especially small caps), but there are a lot of good companies with a lot of value in your list. The key here is to focus on the process and the results will come. I look at this time period as an opportunity to upgrade my portfolio into better companies at cheaper prices.

One you may want to look given your propensity for insurance is Standard Life in the UK. They are back below their IPO price, business is growing and the Pound is down.

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