The Aleph Blog » Blog Archive » Personal Finance, Part 12 — Longevity Risk

Personal Finance, Part 12 — Longevity Risk

When I started this irregular series on personal finance, I didn’t think it would live this long. Maybe it’s appropriate then that this piece deals with longevity risk. After all, my prior piece dealt the the concept of the PRIER [Personal Required Investment Earnings Rate].


One of the main ideas there is that you have to take enough risk so that you earn enough money to meet all of your goals. One of those goals would likely be having enough to live off of if you live to a ripe old age, like 100. 100 sounds old; after all, it serves our fascination with watching the odometer roll over. Old age mortality has been improving, though and the number of centenarians is growing rapidly. The same is true of those living into their 90s. Yet many people plan retirement as if they were only going to live to 85.


The destitute elderly definitely have it worse than those with resources. What if you could eliminate some of the risk of outliving your income? I have a product that could help you — the life-contingent immediate annuity. Life-contingent immediate annuities pay a stream of income for the life of the annuitant (or joint lives of two annuitants). They give an income that cannot be outlived. Today, a number of insurance companies do that one better, and offer inflation adjustments on the payments, with the trade-off being accepting a lower initial payment than the unadjusted annuity. The only remaining risk is insurance company solvency, but only buy from reputable firms. That said, remember that the state guarantee funds stand behind the companies, and the benefit payments they are least likely to cut off in an insolvency are death benefits, disability payments, and immediate annuity payments.


Immediate annuities are bought, not sold, unlike other life insurance products. Why? Because once they are bought, there are usually no ways to surrender the policy. You can only take payments over time. Agents don’t like selling immediate annuities, because they will never derive another commission from that money. They would rather sell a variable annuity with a living benefit rider, because it will be possible to roll the policy at a later date to a “better” policy (surrender charges are low), and earn another commission.


Though I am not crazy about variable annuities with living benefit riders, if you own one, be careful before you surrender it. You may have a valuable option to have the company pay a fixed amount for a long time that is worth more than your surrender value rolling into a new policy. In general, be careful in buying any deferred annuities, because the fees are stiff. Be most careful if the agent comes to you when the surrender charge is gone, and encourages you to “roll” to a new product. His interests are different than your interests. You are likely better off staying in your existing deferred annuity.


Are there any other solutions to longevity risk? There are a few. First, cultivate younger friends and family who will be advocates for you in your dotage. They are necessary for kind treatment on the part of the staff of any old age home that you might enter. Those that have no advocates don’t fare well. (For those who are really young, marry, and have more than two kids! Love them, and they will love you.) Second, have an investment policy that reflects the longer-term, realizing you might live longer than average for those that have attained your age. This means more risk assets (stocks) on average than what is commonly recommended, but I would temper this with two caveats:


1) Remember that the Baby Boomers are graying, and will need to liquidate assets to support their old age.


2) Sometimes the markets are overvalued, and it is time to preserve capital, not go for capital gains. Tweak you asset allocation to reflect asset valuations.


A long life is a blessing, and even more so when you have friends, family, good health, and peace with God. Plan now to live longer than you expect. Save more, invest wisely, and buy some longevity insurance.


PS — Don’t go “hog wild” with any single pecuniary strategy for your old age. This is another area where diversification pays, so don’t put all of your eggs in one basket.


PPS — Some of the larger insurers (Pru, Met, Hartford) allow you to buy future income streams should you be alive to receive them. They are an inexpensive way for younger people to put money away for retirement, though there are risks of early death, company insolvency and inflation.


Full disclosure: long HIG






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3 Responses to Personal Finance, Part 12 — Longevity Risk

  1. Bill Wright Jr says:

    Thank you David I did not know about this type of insurance.

  2. [...] The second article went over the value of immediate annuities as risk reducers to retirees, something I commented on recently. The tweak here is buying annuities that start paying later in retirement, for example at 80 or 85, [...]

  3. [...] has a chilling effect on retirement planning.  Recall my recent article on longevity risk.  In that article, I tried to point out the similarities for retirement investment planning [...]

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David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures.


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