Buy Agency Bonds. Buy Agency Passthroughs.

This will not be a long post.  Ask yourself this: in this environment, would the US government step away from the mortgage agencies?  I think not.  If anything, they might invest in its subordinated debt, particularly if there were a conversion into common stock feature.

Spreads are wide, very wide, and I don’t think the government will let the GSEs fail, particularly after raising their lending limits.  The agencies will need more capital for lending , so I would expect more preferred stock issues, and perhaps an equity issuance, if to a key investor, like the US Government.

I don’t see the US Government guaranteeing all of the debt of the Agencies, but I could see it doing it for a period of years on new issues, particularly if the Government received equity warrants.

In this wide spread environment, I would be a buyer, particularly versus Treasuries.