Comments on: Negative Real Interest Rates and Asset Deflation http://alephblog.com/2008/03/08/negative-real-interest-rates-and-asset-deflation/ Helping Institutions and Ordinary People Invest Better by Focusing on Risk Control Mon, 13 Feb 2012 14:34:49 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Vermont Trader..http://alephblog.com/2008/03/08/negative-real-interest-rates-and-asset-deflation/comment-page-1/#comment-17207 Vermont Trader.. Tue, 11 Mar 2008 03:42:09 +0000 http://alephblog.com/2008/03/08/negative-real-interest-rates-and-asset-deflation/#comment-17207 What the FOMC needs to do is get President Bush to announce a release from the strategic petroleum reserve. This would pop the oil bubble (for now) and give the market a slap in the face. Of course, it won't happen. What the FOMC needs to do is get President Bush to announce a release from the strategic petroleum reserve. This would pop the oil bubble (for now) and give the market a slap in the face.

Of course, it won’t happen.

]]> By: Josh Sternhttp://alephblog.com/2008/03/08/negative-real-interest-rates-and-asset-deflation/comment-page-1/#comment-17183 Josh Stern Sun, 09 Mar 2008 17:19:14 +0000 http://alephblog.com/2008/03/08/negative-real-interest-rates-and-asset-deflation/#comment-17183 I'd be interested to hear your thoughts about how you gauge the effect of asset deflation on DB and RBS. You mentioned a few weeks ago that you thought DB had avoided losses in the current crisis. I've followed RBS more closely (have a recent position there) and I'd point out that their interest income over the last 6 months increased by a lot more than their loan loss provisions. The bear case for RBS would seem to be that either they don't know about/can't estimate their real losses or they are lying about them (general pattern of insider buying supports the former idea). So how would an outsider get a better estimate for such a diversified financial conglomerate? I’d be interested to hear your thoughts about how you gauge the effect of asset deflation on DB and RBS. You mentioned a few weeks ago that you thought DB had avoided losses in the current crisis. I’ve followed RBS more closely (have a recent position there) and I’d point out that their interest income over the last 6 months increased by a lot more than their loan loss provisions. The bear case for RBS would seem to be that either they don’t know about/can’t estimate their real losses or they are lying about them (general pattern of insider buying supports the former idea). So how would an outsider get a better estimate for such a diversified financial conglomerate?

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