Monthly Archives: March 2008

Fifteen Notes on the Credit Markets (and other markets)

1)  A number of blogs pointed to this piece by Howard Marks of Oaktree, and I thought it was very well-thought out for the most part.  There are few people who think about history in the markets; they just follow present trends.  Learning how to see unsustainable trends and avoiding them not only reduces risk, […]

FOMC: Fanning Our Monetary Conflagration

From RealMoney: David Merkel FOMC: Fanning Our Monetary Conflagration 3/18/2008 2:16 PM EDT The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee lowered the Fed funds target and discount rate by 75 basis points. The vote was 8-2, with Fisher and Plosser dissenting. The growth risk assessment is weakness. The prices risk assessment is balanced. Overall, FOMC makes […]

Post 600

As WordPress counts, every 100 articles, I take a step back, and think about blogging.  I wasn’t sure what I was getting myself into when I started the blog.  I was unsatisfied with my work and my other writing outlets when I decided to start Alephblog up.  I wanted more creative control, and an ability […]

Investment Banks Are Priced Like Bermuda Reinsuers

Late in the day, I looked at a table of valuations of the remaining major investment banks, and thought, “Huh, they’re priced like Bermuda Reinsurers.  Price-to-book near 1 or lower, and expected P/Es in the middle single digits.”  Well, that got me thinking… how are those two groups of companies alike?  When losses come they […]

Last Thoughts on the FOMC Meeting

FOMC cycles usually have some sort of underlying consistency to them. In this cycle, the underlying consistency has been: Unorthodox measures, attempting to use the asset side of the Fed’s balance sheet to solve lending problems among banks and broker-dealers. They have effectively “sterilized” their unorthodox measures by withdrawing other liquidity from the system, leading […]