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> <channel><title>Comments on: Ten Things To Be Concerned About</title> <atom:link href="http://alephblog.com/2008/04/17/ten-things-to-be-concerned-about/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" /><link>http://alephblog.com/2008/04/17/ten-things-to-be-concerned-about/</link> <description>Helping Institutions and Ordinary People Invest Better by Focusing on Risk Control</description> <lastBuildDate>Fri, 25 May 2012 21:31:47 +0000</lastBuildDate> <sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod> <sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency> <generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1</generator> <item><title>By: Tom F.</title><link>http://alephblog.com/2008/04/17/ten-things-to-be-concerned-about/comment-page-1/#comment-17473</link> <dc:creator>Tom F.</dc:creator> <pubDate>Fri, 18 Apr 2008 02:50:24 +0000</pubDate> <guid
isPermaLink="false">http://alephblog.com/?p=650#comment-17473</guid> <description>A few thoughts of mine, David.
(2) It remains beyond me why anybody would want to invest in TIPs - ever. They are created by an entity that also creates the inflation that the TIPs are supposed to protect you from. On top of that, Said entity continually and deliberately understates the level of inflation. Forget about your investment beating inflation, how can one just break even with the crummy things? From my view, they&#039;re a complete joke.
(3) With respect to the spinning heads of foreign investors, I assume you&#039;re referring strictly to the private sectors because their respective central banks are all part of the G7/Tri-lateral Commission cabal that fomented the world-wide real estate mess. There are no spinning heads in that rotten little clique.</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A few thoughts of mine, David.</p><p>(2) It remains beyond me why anybody would want to invest in TIPs &#8211; ever. They are created by an entity that also creates the inflation that the TIPs are supposed to protect you from. On top of that, Said entity continually and deliberately understates the level of inflation. Forget about your investment beating inflation, how can one just break even with the crummy things? From my view, they&#8217;re a complete joke.</p><p>(3) With respect to the spinning heads of foreign investors, I assume you&#8217;re referring strictly to the private sectors because their respective central banks are all part of the G7/Tri-lateral Commission cabal that fomented the world-wide real estate mess. There are no spinning heads in that rotten little clique.</p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item><title>By: James Dailey</title><link>http://alephblog.com/2008/04/17/ten-things-to-be-concerned-about/comment-page-1/#comment-17464</link> <dc:creator>James Dailey</dc:creator> <pubDate>Thu, 17 Apr 2008 17:26:03 +0000</pubDate> <guid
isPermaLink="false">http://alephblog.com/?p=650#comment-17464</guid> <description>1. David is far more comfortable with this risk than I am. I think that the extent of the credit bubble brings into question whether the brokers&#039; historical diligence in protecting the franchise is warranted in the current cycle. LTCM clearly displayed that when greed and overconfidence are combined, the brokers will over reach. Greenspan recently argued that the CDS &quot;problem&quot; was due to a lack of processing. While I think that is a laughable statement by a tragic figure (in the Greek sense), it does highlight that the big banks were manufacturing these things so rapidly that to believe that they have any real comprehension of their total risk exposure is a giant leap in my opinion.
5. I think the food problem is huge. I know from my circles, most people bitched and complained about higher energy costs over the past couple of years. However, the sense of indignation about inflation has exploded in recent months with the dramatic increase in food prices. The initial moves to protectionism by some countries highlights the real risk I see - the political reality of food shortages is protectionism plain and simple. Is it wise to believe that politicians will stick with a politically abstract concept such as &quot;free trade&quot; when there are food shortages in their countries? Once the protectionism fuse is lit, it can get out of hand.
Jim Rogers has spoken (as usual) eloquently about the likely long term demise of the Euro. I personally believe that the risk of some countries leaving is significant over the next few years - like Italy and Spain. I think it will be a global trend in the break down of the fiat monetary system. If we are in a Kondratieff up cycle in commodity prices, this would likely result in a return to hard money in some form as the fiat system breaks down.</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>1. David is far more comfortable with this risk than I am. I think that the extent of the credit bubble brings into question whether the brokers&#8217; historical diligence in protecting the franchise is warranted in the current cycle. LTCM clearly displayed that when greed and overconfidence are combined, the brokers will over reach. Greenspan recently argued that the CDS &#8220;problem&#8221; was due to a lack of processing. While I think that is a laughable statement by a tragic figure (in the Greek sense), it does highlight that the big banks were manufacturing these things so rapidly that to believe that they have any real comprehension of their total risk exposure is a giant leap in my opinion.</p><p>5. I think the food problem is huge. I know from my circles, most people bitched and complained about higher energy costs over the past couple of years. However, the sense of indignation about inflation has exploded in recent months with the dramatic increase in food prices. The initial moves to protectionism by some countries highlights the real risk I see &#8211; the political reality of food shortages is protectionism plain and simple. Is it wise to believe that politicians will stick with a politically abstract concept such as &#8220;free trade&#8221; when there are food shortages in their countries? Once the protectionism fuse is lit, it can get out of hand.</p><p>Jim Rogers has spoken (as usual) eloquently about the likely long term demise of the Euro. I personally believe that the risk of some countries leaving is significant over the next few years &#8211; like Italy and Spain. I think it will be a global trend in the break down of the fiat monetary system. If we are in a Kondratieff up cycle in commodity prices, this would likely result in a return to hard money in some form as the fiat system breaks down.</p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item><title>By: Steve Milos</title><link>http://alephblog.com/2008/04/17/ten-things-to-be-concerned-about/comment-page-1/#comment-17463</link> <dc:creator>Steve Milos</dc:creator> <pubDate>Thu, 17 Apr 2008 15:49:12 +0000</pubDate> <guid
isPermaLink="false">http://alephblog.com/?p=650#comment-17463</guid> <description>Hi David,
Hope things are going well.
Interesting comment about the Euro and various European real estate markets.  Obviously we are a long ways away from countries leaving the Euro, and I would imagine that there would be tremendous political pressure exercised to keep the Euro zone together, e.g. by France on Spain.
As a thought experiment though, what are the implications if nations like Spain and Italy leave?  I can imagine a flight to the USD, but that might also be very short-lived, as the remaining EUR nations would presumably have a higher level of commitment to fighting inflation, in the eyes of the market.
Interested in your opinion, or those of other readers.
Steve</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi David,</p><p>Hope things are going well.</p><p>Interesting comment about the Euro and various European real estate markets.  Obviously we are a long ways away from countries leaving the Euro, and I would imagine that there would be tremendous political pressure exercised to keep the Euro zone together, e.g. by France on Spain.</p><p>As a thought experiment though, what are the implications if nations like Spain and Italy leave?  I can imagine a flight to the USD, but that might also be very short-lived, as the remaining EUR nations would presumably have a higher level of commitment to fighting inflation, in the eyes of the market.</p><p>Interested in your opinion, or those of other readers.</p><p>Steve</p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item><title>By: Chris D</title><link>http://alephblog.com/2008/04/17/ten-things-to-be-concerned-about/comment-page-1/#comment-17461</link> <dc:creator>Chris D</dc:creator> <pubDate>Thu, 17 Apr 2008 14:24:54 +0000</pubDate> <guid
isPermaLink="false">http://alephblog.com/?p=650#comment-17461</guid> <description>Related to the counterparty issue, is there any way for outsiders to know how much the BSC and JPM derivative positions might offset one another (either because they were direct counterparties or because they held the opposite sides of similar positions with third parties)?  I realize that any offset may not fix the system-wide issues, but any way to tell how material it is for these two?</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Related to the counterparty issue, is there any way for outsiders to know how much the BSC and JPM derivative positions might offset one another (either because they were direct counterparties or because they held the opposite sides of similar positions with third parties)?  I realize that any offset may not fix the system-wide issues, but any way to tell how material it is for these two?</p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item><title>By: Louis Hill</title><link>http://alephblog.com/2008/04/17/ten-things-to-be-concerned-about/comment-page-1/#comment-17460</link> <dc:creator>Louis Hill</dc:creator> <pubDate>Thu, 17 Apr 2008 14:00:00 +0000</pubDate> <guid
isPermaLink="false">http://alephblog.com/?p=650#comment-17460</guid> <description>Excellent post David</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Excellent post David</p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item><title>By: matt wilbert</title><link>http://alephblog.com/2008/04/17/ten-things-to-be-concerned-about/comment-page-1/#comment-17459</link> <dc:creator>matt wilbert</dc:creator> <pubDate>Thu, 17 Apr 2008 13:26:24 +0000</pubDate> <guid
isPermaLink="false">http://alephblog.com/?p=650#comment-17459</guid> <description>I generally tend to agree with you, and our general outlook is similar, but I have to disagree with you on the TIPS.  If you have to buy bonds, a negative yield is not a reason not to buy TIPS, but in my view it is a sign you shouldn&#039;t be buying bonds at all if you can help it.
And since in the next two sentences, you suggest that resource scarcity is the reason you think inflation will not mean-revert, I would suggest that buying a basket of commodities instead would probably work better.
I do actually do own some munis right now, and I think you can make a case for them in a taxable account, at least in the short term.</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I generally tend to agree with you, and our general outlook is similar, but I have to disagree with you on the TIPS.  If you have to buy bonds, a negative yield is not a reason not to buy TIPS, but in my view it is a sign you shouldn&#8217;t be buying bonds at all if you can help it.</p><p>And since in the next two sentences, you suggest that resource scarcity is the reason you think inflation will not mean-revert, I would suggest that buying a basket of commodities instead would probably work better.</p><p>I do actually do own some munis right now, and I think you can make a case for them in a taxable account, at least in the short term.</p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item><title>By: Doug</title><link>http://alephblog.com/2008/04/17/ten-things-to-be-concerned-about/comment-page-1/#comment-17458</link> <dc:creator>Doug</dc:creator> <pubDate>Thu, 17 Apr 2008 13:16:58 +0000</pubDate> <guid
isPermaLink="false">http://alephblog.com/?p=650#comment-17458</guid> <description>Re #7:  Triad Guaranty is considering going into run-off, so this condition may pan out.</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re #7:  Triad Guaranty is considering going into run-off, so this condition may pan out.</p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> </channel> </rss>
