Archive for May 16th, 2008

Average? I Like Average, if It’s My Average. (Part II)

Friday, May 16th, 2008

Finishing off the average 10, the slightly better 5…

Deltic Timber

Deltic Timber was an idea that I gleaned from Jim Grant.  They have a lot of timberland in the Southern US, a decent amount of which is next to Little Rock, Arkansas.  The land near Little Rock, once developed, could be quite valuable in a bull market for residential real estate.  I ended up selling because I lost confidence in the residential housing market.

Honda Motors

I still own Honda.  Does the world need cars?  Does the world need small cars?  Yes!  Is Honda cheaply valued?  Yes.  Can they beat the cost levels of Ford, GM, and Chrysler?  Yes.  I like Toyota as well, and have owned it in the past.  I have owned American auto part manufacturers, but never the automakers themselves; their credit quality is too low.

Mueller Industries

This is a case where I found a cheap industrial, bought it, and waited.  The price rose, and I concluded that I had cheaper opportunities, so I sold.  Also, their raw materials prices were going to rise…

American Power Conversion

American Power Conversion was a cheap tech stock with products that are difficult to obsolete.  Eventually I had cheaper investments to buy, and I sold.  This is another example of how the rebalancing discipline can turn a flat stock into extra profits.

Australia & New Zealand Banking

This seemed to be a cheap, well-run foreign bank so I bought some.  As with many of my average investments, I sold it to fund other more promising investments.

Summary of Part II

  • Rebalance your portfolio regularly to fixed weights.
  • Dividends matter.
  • Buy cheap.
  • Trade away for better opportunities when you find them.

It is important in investing to have something to compare investments against.  Make them compete against each other for your dollars, and be rigorous about it.  Don’t invest because “That sounds like a good idea,” rather, is it better than what you currently have?  Keep improving the quality of your portfolio, in terms of cheapness, quality, and future prospects.

Full disclosure: long HMC

Disclaimer


David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures.


Also, though David runs Aleph Investments, LLC, this blog is not a part of that business. This blog exists to educate investors, and give something back. It is not intended as advertisement for Aleph Investments; David is not soliciting business through it. When David, or a client of David's has an interest in a security mentioned, full disclosure will be given, as has been past practice for all that David does on the web. Disclosure is the breakfast of champions.


Additionally, David may occasionally write about accounting, actuarial, insurance, and tax topics, but nothing written here, at RealMoney, or anywhere else is meant to be formal "advice" in those areas. Consult a reputable professional in those areas to get personal, tailored advice that meets the specialized needs that David can have no knowledge of.

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