Aleph Blog

 Subscribe in a reader

Disclosure

This blog is produced by David Merkel CFA, a registered representative of Finacorp Securities as an outside business activity. As such, Finacorp Securities does not review or approve materials presented herein. By viewing or participating in discussion on this blog, you understand that the opinions expressed within do not reflect the opinions or recommendations of Finacorp Securities, but are the opinions of the author and individual participants. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other instrument. Before investing, consider your investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Any purchase or sale activity in any securities instrument should be based upon your own analysis and conclusions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Finacorp Securities is a member FINRA and SIPC.

David Merkel

At my blog there are two main purposes: teaching investors about better investing through risk control, and tying all of the markets into a coherent whole.

Latest



Archives


Categories


  • Recent Comments:

    • BamBam: Thanks for that mention of the AAII screening program. I’d find it interesting if you evaluated some of...
    • David Merkel: I tried. Weekly and monthly smoothing did not materially change the graph.
    • q: can you smooth out the bottom graph?
    • But What do I Know?: Great points, David–I think sometimes the importance of a margin of error, the utility of...
    • Steven Milos: Welcome back David…there’s no place like home! Steve
  • Recent Trackbacks:

    • : Mom Blogs - Blogs for Moms...
    • : Mom Blogs - Blogs for Moms...
    • : Mom Blogs - Blogs for Moms...
    • : Mom Blogs - Blogs for Moms...
    • : Mom Blogs - Blogs for Moms...
  •  Subscribe in a reader

     Subscribe in a reader (comments)

    Subscribe to RSS Feed

    Enter your Email


    Preview | Powered by FeedBlitz

    Seeking Alpha Certified

    InstantBull.com: Bull, Boards & Blogs

    Blog Directory - Blogged

    IStockAnalyst

    http://www.wikio.com

    Advertising


    blog advertising is good for you

    Books I Have Reviewed

    Book Reviews

    Other Advertising

     

    Break up AIG!

    I worked for AIG for three years of my life 1989-1992.  In general, though I learned a ton while working there, I did not like the experience.  As my boss at Provident Mutual said to me, “My greatest doubt about you was that you survived there for three years; it made me wonder about your character.”

    That’s probably a bit severe, but turnover was high among employees in the first five years; after that, there were many who would “lifers.”  Turnover would be low after five years.

    Now, my stylized history of AIG takes it through the glory days of the 1980s, where return on assets [ROAs] was high, and financial leverage low.  ROA is a much better way to measure insurance company performance than return on equity [ROE].  Earning a spread between assets and liabilities is tough.  Earning an underwriting profit is tough.  Borrowing money to buy back stock is easy.  From the early 90s to the present, AIG became increasingly more levered.  ROE stayed near 15%, but it was less and less ROA, and more and more leverage.

    I was never a great fan of my former employer, but I convinced the hedge fund that I worked for to buy some AIG when it was cheap.  We sold around $76, on the day it went into the DJIA.  It hasn’t seen that level since.

    When AIG had their big problems, and ejected Greenberg, I wrote a lot at RealMoney about the situation.  The possibilities of accounting manipulation did not surprise me; my own experience there was that we played it to the edge.  AIG has been downgraded by the ratings agencies since then, but because they were big, they delayed the downgrading.  It should have happened years earlier, but Hank intimidated the ratings agencies.

    So, I’m not surprised that Hank Greenberg might have directed his employees to achieve a certain GAAP earnings result through a reinsurance treaty.  To me, that would be normal.

    It also does not surprise me that Hank is going after present AIG management regarding their recent disappointing earnings.  What does surprise me is the thought that International Lease Finance wants to go its own way.  When the deal originally was done, there was some skepticism inside AIG, but the word was that the tax benefits made the deal work on its own.    My skepticism today is that AIG will not want to let go of a successful division.  It doesn’t make sense.

    Now, Hank can fight AIG management as much as he wants.  (One, two, three.)  My opinion is that poor Martin Sullivan is not capable of managing such a large enterprise, and that it would be better if AIG were broken up.  (Okay, ILFC, see if you can survive on your own.)  Create a US life company, an international life company, a US P/C insurer, one for the foreign P/C business, and one more company to hold everything else.

    Hank can complain, but the problems are bigger than the current management team, or Hank, can deal with.  AIG needs to shrink– reduce leverage, focus on underwriting profitability, exit unprofitable lines, as AIG did back in the 80s.  Give up market share, shed employees, become more profitable.  Essentially, they need to undo a lot of what Hank did.  The synergies of the combined enterprise are small, so break up AIG and let new managers focus more intensely on their less diverse enterprises.

    18 Responses to “ Break up AIG! ”

    1. James M Drake, Jr Says:

      I am a casualty of Greenberg and his 15% mantra. I started in the financial service business in 1983 with the Franklin Companies ( subsidiary of American Brands) eventually bought by American General then ultimately bought by the infamous AIG. I was part of the inner circle. My last position was a charter board member of the field advisory board. This board was chosen by a gentleman named Gary Reddick. At the current age of 56 and after building MY book of business for 25 years AIG in it’s infinite wisdom has stolen all my income from that book. If you’d like to know more let me know.

    2. BamBam Says:

      One could make many of the same points about Citigroup.

    3. Frustrated Says:

      Ah, now that I read this I am not too, too surprised at my horrific experience in trying to convert a very simple homeowner’s insurance policy to a landlord policy. I have literally spent hours trying to find somebody to talk to, instead I was tranferred from one to another by reps who sounded more frustrated than I was becoming. Finally,I reached someone wo promised to call me by the end of the week - 5/30. no call & now no more insurance with AIG. How does AIG treat claims, I wonder, if this great big firm cannot convert a simple homeowner’s insurance with a clean record. If this is a working examplke of how AIG handles its customers, how can it handle its finances? etc?

    4. Joe Says:

      As a insurance broker who transacted quite a bit with AIG going back to 1978. We finally cut the cord with them as we grew weary of their methods such as denying claims until insureds sued them. If I had to sum it up it would be AIG did everything to the extreme so I am not going to shed any tears for them. What goes around comes around

    5. David Merkel Says:

      AIG was the model in the insurance industry for Ferengi Rule of Acquisition #1 — “Once you have their money … never give it back.” Once at a “roast” of MR Greenberg, one of his competitors came in with a news flash, alleging the Greenberg had gotten soft — he paid a claim.

      Or, the agent I ran into who tried to get his wealthy client to buy Chubb over AIG and pay more, saying, “That’s not insurance. That’s just the right to sue AIG when you have a loss.”

      These tales are legion, including AIG regularly taking their reinsurers to the cleaners.

    6. bartman Says:

      went to Tx workers comp on my oji case: this what they ask, who is youe carrier ? aig I said, this was quote : you could not have a moredisliked carrier, chaces are you will never see a dime, they owed me $9 only wanted to pay $1000, did not get a lawyer: I was out to get the rep with the $1000 suit and the 15 cent frown that told me I was not going to get a dime!!! in the this what they got: $126,000 in Dr bills and I got $11000, now do you wonder why they went broke, note: no lawyer was ever involved just me with a 10th grade education! aig smoke you some of that!

    7. John Harris Says:

      I noticed that IGI Insurance company in the UK who is owned by AMTRUST US is providing cover for any airline going bust, it looks like they will be the next to follow AIG taking AMTRUST US down with them ?

      It’s amazing that in these times of such uncertainties and when the aviation industry is in its worst financial disaster in history that an insurer like AMTRUST is taking such risks only to ultimately leave the tax payer bailing them out also, when will it end ?

    8. Joe 4444 Six Pack Says:

      let them go down in flames NO MORE MONEY. they are crooks just like the bush admin all this $$$ is going to come back and haunt us all. saw thw big boss man on cnbc this am lying through his teeth please help us NO NO NO let them go dowm as quickly as possible on their own! hope the new guy does not bail them out

    9. cj Says:

      I am currently in a legal matter with AIG. I had a fall at work and hurt my back. I was later terminated from that job but my doctor tells me I must change my job because I have chronic back problems now. Because I was terminated AIG says that I am not entitled to any type of works compensation. I have a family to take care of and I cannot work and must find some other type career to get into. The entire process AIG has came up with excusses not to provide some type of disability support. My lawyers are working on my situation. The government should have let them go under.

    10. John M Says:

      Press Release for release by AIG on Monday morning:

      Thank you, America, for your generous donation to our non-profit organization. We do not know what we would do without you.

      As you fill out your income tax forms, please think of us, and all the good your taxes do for us.

      See you next month when we’re back for another generous donation.

      Love and appreciation,
      Your friends at AIG

    11. E. Perez Says:

      I cannot begin to believe that a company begging on bended knee for government funds to survive has the audacity to issue bonuses to employees.

      You reward success, not failure, and I assume that the people being rewarded with the bonuses are the same ones that helped put AIG in the financial crisis that they are in. I know that the company says that it has an obligation, but these people are lucky to just have jobs, much less be rewarded for failure. There are a lot of unemployed people out there that are also “quality” employees. If the one you have were so good, then you wouldn’t be asking for a bailout!

      Do you really think that they will leave the company and try to find jobs elsewhere in this environment because they don’t get a bonus? Get real.

      As a taxpayer I want my money back from them to use with a struggling company that will appreciate what the government is doing for them. Or, put in management that understands financial crisis, what caused it and has a plan to remedy it. Not provicde largess and taxpayer expenses.

      As cruel as it may sound, if they don’t change management and bring in people that can succeed, then let them fail and close their doors.

    12. Ron Richard Says:

      The solution is simple. Publish a list of all AIG execs receiving bonuses so America can know the names of those people who are slapping them in the face. How about not doing business with any company who employs any of them?

    13. Michael Smith Says:

      The arrogance of these managers.
      They worship a God there fathers knew not.

    14. Milton Says:

      WE THE PEOPLE AS A NATION BOYCOTT AIG
      It is absolutely insane for one company to have such a position in our National Economy, there needs to be a dismantling of this company and others similar to it. As quoted from an AIG expert “We are the ones who stand to lose the most now” (speaking of the fact that the government owns 80% of the company) …… the more we put in, the more we stand to lose (lets cut our losses at 170B). We need to stop now, furthermore we should have never put in the 170B. I think the taxpayer (We the people) should have had more of a voice in the first place of putting in of the 170B, not to mention the fact that 170B is not going to reestablish the company but it is being used to pay bonuses. AIG CAN NOT BE TRUSTED!!!!!!

      Furthermore, I think that this whole financial thing is nothing more than a time bomb scheduled by our former anti-American President George W. Bush to keep the focus and media off all of his illegal activities. I use the phrase “Anti-American President” simply because we have never had such a President to cause our Nation so much turmoil than G. W. Bush, he disfigured us as a Nation in the eyes of the world.

      WE THE PEOPLE AS A NATION BOYCOTT AIG

    15. TEED OFFF Says:

      BOYCOTT
      AIG owns more than two dozen companies licensed to offer insurance in California, according to the California Insurance Commissioner. They include 21st Century Casualty Co.; 21st Century Insurance Co.; AIG Casualty Co.; AIG Centennial Insurance Co.; AIG Premier Insurance Co.; AIU Insurance Co.; American General Indemnity Co.; American Home Assurance Co.; American International Insurance Co. of California Inc.; Birmingham Fire Insurance Co. of Pennsylvania; Commerce And Industry Insurance Co.; GE Auto & Home Assurance Co.; GE Indemnity Insurance Co.; Granite State Insurance Co.; Hartford Steam Boiler Inspection and Insurance Co.; Insurance Co. of the State of Pennsylvania; Landmark Insurance Co.; National Union Fire Insurance Co. of Pittsburgh, Pa; New Hampshire Insurance Co.; Pacific Assurance; Putnam Reinsurance Co.; Transatlantic Reinsurance Co.; United Guaranty Commercial Insurance Co. of North Carolina; United Guaranty Credit Insurance Co.; United Guaranty Residential Insurance Co.; and Yosemite Insurance Co

    16. Ivan Says:

      Bottom line….Return OUR money or I hope the selfish ones who kept it and their families lose every thing they have and choke on it. Do I sound bitter? I hope so.

    17. Ivan Says:

      I have been urging everyone to cash out of AIG. My co-worker canceled his insurance for this fraud of a company to only make a withdraw from his account for the next month.

      It took him 2 months to recoup the money that they stole from him.

      Let me know at what point we are supposed to feel bad for them?

    18. Ralph Says:

      To cj, from message #9.

      Regarding Workers Compensation Law, AIG is wrong. You have a legal claim.

      Call attorney Kevin Kutyla, in Newton, New Jersey. It is Federal Law, if you were injured on the job, they have to provide financial restitution. - Ralph

      ps. I am a former client. He is great person.

    Leave a Reply

    safe viagra Viagra Covered By Insurance snorting viagra health viagra patent expire Mature Viagra viagra anxiety taking viagra woman Viagra Suppositories Ivf cheap gerneric viagra generic viagra levitra and cialis pills Canadian Generic Viagra can i take viagra viagra how it works How To Make Viagra Herbal viagra forums herbal viagra from the uk 621. snorting viagra health Buy Cheap Viagra Online Uk viagra patent levitra Viagra andnot generic viagra animate 439. Viagra And Eating A Meal taking viagra woman cheap gerneric viagra Viagra Incidents generic viagra levitra and cialis pills can i take viagra Viagra Reviews viagra how it works Herbal viagra forums herbal viagra from the uk 621. Cialis V S Viagra snorting viagra health viagra patent expire U 3312 Viagra Cialis viagra anxiety taking viagra woman Viagra Hearing Loss cheap gerneric viagra generic viagra levitra and cialis pills Subaction Showcomments Viagra Archive Online can i take viagra viagra how it works Quick Forum Readtopic Viagra Signature Content Herbal viagra forums herbal viagra from the uk 621. Smooth muscle piperazine viagra sniff viagra 292. How T Get Viagra viagra patent levitra viagra anxiety
    Female Viagra
    taking viagra woman cheap generic kamagra kamagra uk viagra Male Quadriplegic Using Viagra generic viagra levitra and cialis pills can i take viagra Subaction Showcomments Viagra Smile Posted viagra how it works herbal viagra cartridge; Mexico Viagra snorting viagra health viagra patent levitra Cialis Compared To Viagra viagra anxiety taking viagra woman Subaction Showcomments Viagra Start From Remember cheap gerneric viagra generic viagra levitra and cialis pills Compare Viagra can i take viagra viagra how it works Taking Viagra And Adderall Together Herbal viagra forums herbal viagra from the uk 621. Smooth muscle piperazine viagra sniff viagra 292. Find Viagra Edinburgh Pages Search viagra patent levitra
    viagra anxiety
    Purchase Viagra taking viagra woman cheap generic kamagra kamagra uk viagra Viagra Side Effect generic viagra levitra and cialis pills can i take viagra Viagra Or Cealis viagra how it works Herbal viagra forums herbal viagra from the uk 621. Dog Ate Viagra Tablet Any Danger snorting viagra health viagra patent levitra Suppliers Of Viagra viagra anxiety taking viagra woman Marijuana And Viagra cheap gerneric viagra generic viagra levitra and cialis pills 10-minute Viagra
    can i take viagra viagra home page Viagra Equivalent Herbal viagra forums herbal viagra from the uk 621. snorting viagra health Viagra Lawyers viagra patent levitra viagra anxiety Viagra Online Canada taking viagra woman cheap gerneric viagra Diabetes And Viagra generic viagra levitra and cialis pills can i take viagra European Viagra viagra how it works Herbal viagra forums herbal viagra from the uk 621. Viagra Mail Order Uk snorting viagra health viagra patent levitra Which Is Better Cialis Or Viagra viagra anxiety taking viagra woman Viagra Next Day cheap gerneric viagra generic viagra levitra and cialis pills Legal Viagra can i take viagra viagra how does it work Viagra Contraindications Herbal viagra forums herbal viagra from the uk 621. snorting viagra health Viagra Discount 800 Number Customer Service viagra patent levitra viagra anxiety Acheter Du Viagra taking viagra woman cheap gerneric viagra Viagra Complaints generic viagra levitra and cialis pills can i take viagra Viagra Versus Cialis viagra how it works herbal viagra cartridge; Viagra Headache snorting viagra health viagra patent levitra Viagra England viagra anxiety taking viagra woman Womens Viagra cheap gerneric viagra generic viagra levitra and cialis pills Viagra Generic Soft Tab can i take viagra viagra how it works Viagra Viagra Herbal viagra forums herbal viagra from the uk 621. snorting viagra health Generic Viagra Overnight Delivery viagra patent levitra viagra anxiety Funny Picture Viagra taking viagra woman cheap gerneric viagra Viagra Ukonly generic viagra levitra and cialis pills can i take viagra G Postmessage Viagra Subject Reply viagra how it works herbal viagra cartridge; Viagra Side Effects snorting viagra health viagra patent expire Viagra Vs Levitra viagra anxiety taking viagra woman Viva Viagra cheap gerneric viagra generic viagra levitra and cialis pills Viagra Make It Bigger can i take viagra viagra how it works Cheap Viagra Herbal viagra forums herbal viagra from the uk 621. snorting viagra health Viagra Type Drugs viagra patent levitra viagra anxiety Viagra Buy Price Iframe taking viagra woman cheap gerneric viagra Generic Viagra Lowest Prices generic viagra levitra and cialis pills can i take viagra Quick Forum Readtopic Viagra Answer Content viagra how it works Herbal viagra forums herbal viagra from the uk 621. Does Viagra Work
    snorting viagra health
    viagra para mujeres Viagra And Discovery viagra anxiety taking viagra woman Viagra Gel cheap gerneric viagra generic viagra levitra and cialis pills Generic Name Of Viagra can i take viagra viagra how it works Effects Of Viagra Herbal viagra forums herbal viagra from the uk 621. snorting viagra health Viagra Without Perscription viagra patent levitra viagra anxiety Viagra Online No Prescription taking viagra woman cheap gerneric viagra Buying Viagra Online generic viagra levitra and cialis pills can i take viagra Confidential Overnight Shipping Viagra Overnight viagra how it works Herbal viagra forums herbal viagra from the uk 621. Viagra Strips snorting viagra health viagra patent expire Marajuana And Viagra viagra anxiety taking viagra woman Buy Viagra Order Viagra cheap gerneric viagra generic viagra levitra and cialis pills Guaranteed Cheapest Viagra can i take viagra viagra how it works Viagra Picture Herbal viagra forums herbal viagra from the uk 621. snorting viagra health Viagra Sales viagra patent levitra Viagra andnot generic viagra animate 439. India Viagra taking viagra woman cheap gerneric viagra Viagra Forums generic viagra levitra and cialis pills can i take viagra Generic Viagra Online viagra how it works Herbal viagra forums herbal viagra from the uk 621. Money Order Viagra snorting viagra health viagra patent levitra Too Much Viagra viagra anxiety taking viagra woman Viagra Generic Brand cheap gerneric viagra generic viagra levitra and cialis pills Viagra Boosts Chemical Cuddle can i take viagra viagra how it works Viagra Purchase Online Herbal viagra forums herbal viagra from the uk 621. Smooth muscle piperazine viagra sniff viagra 292. Viagra Directions viagra patent levitra viagra anxiety Viagra Patent taking viagra woman cheap gerneric viagra
    Natural Viagra Substitutes
    generic viagra levitra and cialis pills california phentermine network dish viagra How Much Does Viagra Cost viagra how it works Herbal viagra forums herbal viagra from the uk 621. Is There A Female Viagra snorting viagra health viagra patent levitra Viagra Alternative viagra anxiety taking viagra woman Discount Viagra Online cheap gerneric viagra generic viagra levitra and cialis pills Viagra Faq can i take viagra viagra how it works Viagra 34434 Buy Herbal viagra forums herbal viagra from the uk 621. snorting viagra health Non Prescription Viagra viagra patent levitra viagra anxiety Better Than Viagra taking viagra woman cheap gerneric viagra Can Women Take Viagra generic viagra levitra and cialis pills can i take viagra Buy Viagra Soft viagra how it works herbal viagra cartridge; Viagra And Hearing Loss snorting viagra health viagra patent levitra Subaction Showcomments Viagra Start From Online viagra anxiety taking viagra woman Subaction Showcomments Viagra Smile Online cheap gerneric viagra generic viagra levitra and cialis pills G Postmessage Viagra Smiley Reply can i take viagra viagra how it works Viagra Over The Counter Herbal viagra forums herbal viagra from the uk 621. snorting viagra health Online Viagra Store viagra patent levitra viagra anxiety Drinking And Viagra taking viagra woman cheap gerneric viagra Viagra Price Strategy generic viagra levitra and cialis pills can i take viagra Viagra Sex viagra how it works herbal viagra cartridge; Viagra Results snorting viagra health viagra patent expire Viagra Substitutes viagra anxiety taking viagra woman

    G Postmessage Viagra Subject Post

    cheap gerneric viagra generic viagra in british columbia Bought Viagra Fuerteventura can i take viagra viagra how it works Viagra Use Herbal viagra forums herbal viagra from the uk 621. snorting viagra health Viagra Liver Damage viagra patent levitra viagra anxiety Where Can I Buy Viagra Online taking viagra woman cheap gerneric viagra Subaction Showcomments Viagra Optional Online generic viagra levitra and cialis pills can i take viagra Low Cost Viagra viagra how it works Herbal viagra forums herbal viagra from the uk 621. Viagra Powerpoint Presentation snorting viagra health viagra patent levitra Viagra 100mg viagra anxiety taking viagra woman

    Subaction Showcomments Viagra Optional Older

    cheap gerneric viagra generic viagra in british columbia Generic Viagra Pill can i take viagra viagra how it works Viagra Oral Jelly Herbal viagra forums herbal viagra from the uk 621. Smooth muscle piperazine viagra sniff viagra 292. Over The Counter Viagra viagra patent levitra Viagra andnot generic viagra animate 439. Buy Viagra Ups taking viagra woman cheap gerneric viagra Viagra Boosts Chemical Cuddle Performance generic viagra levitra and cialis pills can i take viagra Buy Viagra Online Inu viagra how it works Herbal viagra forums herbal viagra from the uk 621. Cialis Or Viagra snorting viagra health viagra patent expire Herbs And Viagra Interaction viagra anxiety

    taking viagra woman

    Long Term Use Of Viagra cheap gerneric viagra generic viagra in british columbia Do Boots Sell Viagra can i take viagra viagra how it works Viagra 50mg Herbal viagra forums herbal viagra from the uk 621. snorting viagra health Alternative To Viagra viagra patent levitra viagra and womans libedo!
    How Long Does Viagra Last
    taking viagra woman cheap generic kamagra kamagra uk viagra Is Viagra Professional Real generic viagra levitra and cialis pills can i take viagra Viagra Buy Pharmacy Iframe viagra how it works Herbal viagra forums herbal viagra from the uk 621. Cialis Vs Viagra snorting viagra health viagra patent expire Levitra Versus Viagra viagra anxiety taking viagra woman Fda On Viagra cheap gerneric viagra generic viagra levitra and cialis pills Viagra Usage can i take viagra viagra how it works Viagra Online At Herbal viagra forums herbal viagra from the uk 621. snorting viagra health Viagra Online Overnight viagra patent levitra viagra and womans libedo! Tell Me About Viagra taking viagra woman cheap gerneric viagra Which Is Better Lavitra Or Viagra generic viagra levitra and cialis pills can i take viagra Viagra Soft viagra how it works Herbal viagra forums herbal viagra from the uk 621. Detumescence Priapism Viagra snorting viagra health viagra patent expire Viagra Effekter Biverkningar viagra anxiety taking viagra woman How To Get Viagra cheap gerneric viagra generic viagra levitra and cialis pills Anti Viagra can i take viagra viagra how it works Buying Viagra Herbal viagra forums herbal viagra from the uk 621. snorting viagra health Cheapest Place To Buy Viagra Online viagra patent levitra viagra anxiety Cheap Viagra Online taking viagra woman cheap gerneric viagra Cheapest Viagra generic viagra levitra and cialis pills can i take viagra Viagra Online Cheap viagra how it works Herbal viagra forums herbal viagra from the uk 621. Viagra News Edinburgh Comment Moo snorting viagra health viagra patent levitra Super Viagra viagra anxiety