Archive for August 6th, 2008

Dissing/Praising the Recent Housing Bill

Wednesday, August 6th, 2008

This post is not meant to be a fair rendering of the recent housing bill.  It is meant to be a rendering of its faults.  Part of the difficulty here is the effort that would go into reading page-by-page the whole document.  My guess is relatively few legislators read the full document, and even staffers would have had a hard time making their way through it.

Now for “unbiased” renderings, I offer you:

The basic rendering of the bill revolves around the following:

  • Help to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from the Treasury if they need it.  (Together with a supposedly stronger regulator)
  • Refinancing help for homeowners under stress from the FHA.
  • Grants for municipalities to buy abandoned properties.
  • Housing tax breaks, including a credit to first time buyers.
  • Money for pre-foreclosure counseling and legal services.
  • Some profits from Fannie and Freddie will build affordable rental housing.  (They already do this…)

Unfortunately, our dear government has a tendency to give with the right hand, and take with the left.

Beyond that, the hybrid nature of the GSEs is retained, which is a source of some of the troubles.  Mixed economic motives tend to lead to irrational decisionmaking, which implies credit losses.

Finally, I will close with the idea that condemnation and destruction of buildings is a lousy strategy.  It is lousy, because it would be better to allow for bidding on the part of private entities to use the building and space.  Why drop the value to zero, when you can take the valuable property, and put it to its best alternative use?

In summary, this bill will cost a lot less than its sticker price advertised to the American people.  There is lots of show, and less go.  Personally, that makes me thankful, because the budget can’t bear with aggressive programs that cost a lot.  It really looks like the Republicans won on this one, and that leaves me puzzled, because the Democrats should have had the upper hand.

Disclaimer


David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures.


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