Comments on: The Fundamentals of Market Bottoms http://alephblog.com/2008/08/07/the-fundamentals-of-market-bottoms/ Helping Institutions and Ordinary People Invest Better by Focusing on Risk Control Thu, 18 Mar 2010 02:23:05 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: J http://alephblog.com/2008/08/07/the-fundamentals-of-market-bottoms/comment-page-1/#comment-18785 J Sun, 14 Sep 2008 22:03:11 +0000 http://alephblog.com/?p=801#comment-18785 The economy is being led by the housing market, and when i look at your reasons for "no bottom yet", i get the feeling that most of these events have occurred in the housing market. Do you think that if the housing market turned around tomorrow, the equities market would continue to slip until it met the above criteria? How far do you think we are from the housing market bottom? The economy is being led by the housing market, and when i look at your reasons for “no bottom yet”, i get the feeling that most of these events have occurred in the housing market. Do you think that if the housing market turned around tomorrow, the equities market would continue to slip until it met the above criteria? How far do you think we are from the housing market bottom?

]]> By: Praveen http://alephblog.com/2008/08/07/the-fundamentals-of-market-bottoms/comment-page-1/#comment-18570 Praveen Wed, 03 Sep 2008 12:49:07 +0000 http://alephblog.com/?p=801#comment-18570 Excellent article. Particularly remarkable is your observation that market tops have very different characteristics than market bottoms. No wonder Bear markets are called an emotional meat grinder's characterized by false dawn's and dashed hopes. Also market bottoms like tops are best seen in the rear view mirror (for they may be mirage's). Us long investors are like kids riding on a roller coaster shouting at Mr. Market (who is riding in the front car of the roller coaster), "are we there yet? "are we there yet?", the reality is Mr. Market is not responding but keeps on driving with a maniacal gleam in his eyes. The fact is that we will not know if we are out of the bear market until we can see the ride is about to end. For most neophytes (both long and short) it will be too late. They would have bailed by then. Excellent article. Particularly remarkable is your observation that market tops have very different characteristics than market bottoms. No wonder Bear markets are called an emotional meat grinder’s characterized by false dawn’s and dashed hopes. Also market bottoms like tops are best seen in the rear view mirror (for they may be mirage’s).

Us long investors are like kids riding on a roller coaster shouting at Mr. Market (who is riding in the front car of the roller coaster), “are we there yet? “are we there yet?”, the reality is Mr. Market is not responding but keeps on driving with a maniacal gleam in his eyes.

The fact is that we will not know if we are out of the bear market until we can see the ride is about to end. For most neophytes (both long and short) it will be too late. They would have bailed by then.

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