Archive for August 8th, 2008

Post 800

Friday, August 8th, 2008

Every 100 posts, as WordPress counts, I take a moment out to reflect on my life , my blog, the markets, and more.  My blog is usually a reflection of me as an investor and businessman, but it is not a reflection of me, the whole person.  This is my chance to speak my mind more broadly.  (By the way, it is amusing to be doing post 800 on 08/08/08.)

Hasn’t the market been volatile lately?  I feel like a yo-yo.  Ordinarily my sector rotation methods help my portfolio to be less volatile than the market, but at present my “beta” feels like 1.3.  Now, on the plus side, I am underweight energy for the first time in six years, starting in mid-July, and my energy exposure has a large refining component through Valero and ConocoPhilips. Beyond that, I am in the plus column again for 2008, though returns on Monday could reverse that with ease.

That’s the market.  Only invest what you can afford to lose.

Writing this blog interfaces with the print/online world in a variety of odd ways.  I talk to reporters fairly frequently, and give them a good amount of my time.  So, I want to thank my contacts at the CNN/Money, Fortune, Bloomberg, TheStreet.com, The Wall Street Journal, Business Week, and the Associated Press.  Other interested writers/reporters, e-mail me, and we can talk.

Ordinarily, when I write these posts, I cite those who have driven traffic my way, but right now, my internet connectivity is not cooperating with me.  Instead, I will mention the blogs that are not on my blogroll that I admire: World Beta, Felix Salmon, Information Arbitrage, and Interfluidity.

I remain most grateful to my readers.  I can’t respond to every e-mail, but I do read all of them.  Thanks for taking the time to read my writings.  I enjoy doing it because it gives something back to the broader investment community; retail investors don’t have many friends.

I leave you all with this.  I know my blog is eclectic; I cover a number of issues, and less well than some blogs that are more focused on single issues.  If you have ideas that you want me to write about, please e-mail me.

May the Lord bless you in your endeavors, and grant all of us wisdom in what I expect to be turbulent times in the markets.

Full disclosure: long VLO COP

Disclaimer


David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures.


Also, though David runs Aleph Investments, LLC, this blog is not a part of that business. This blog exists to educate investors, and give something back. It is not intended as advertisement for Aleph Investments; David is not soliciting business through it. When David, or a client of David's has an interest in a security mentioned, full disclosure will be given, as has been past practice for all that David does on the web. Disclosure is the breakfast of champions.


Additionally, David may occasionally write about accounting, actuarial, insurance, and tax topics, but nothing written here, at RealMoney, or anywhere else is meant to be formal "advice" in those areas. Consult a reputable professional in those areas to get personal, tailored advice that meets the specialized needs that David can have no knowledge of.

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