Comments on: Crude Oil: What Goes Up, Must Come Down?

By: David Merkel

David Merkel — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 00:27:01 +0000

Clifford, you get one promotional post. Next promotional post is spam. After that, buy an ad for my blog at http://blogads.com. Surprisingly cheap, and in a prominent place on my blog, not buried in the comments.

By: Clifford J. Wirth

Clifford J. Wirth — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 00:07:02 +0000

Oil prices will soon skyrocket.

According to energy investment banker Matthew Simmons and most independent analysts, global oil production is now declining, from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time demand will increase 14%.

This is equivalent to a 33% drop in 7 years. No one can reverse this trend, nor can we conserve our way out of this catastrophe. Because the demand for oil is so high, it will always be higher than production; thus the depletion rate will continue until all recoverable oil is extracted.

Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment.

We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel trucks for maintenance of bridges, cleaning culverts to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables, all from far away. With the highways out, there will be no food coming in from “outside,” and without the power grid virtually nothing works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated systems.

This is documented in a free 48 page report that can be downloaded, website posted, distributed, and emailed: http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html

I used to live in NH-USA, but moved to a sustainable place. Anyone interested in relocating to a nice, pretty, sustainable area with a good climate and good soil? Email: clifford dot wirth at yahoo dot com or give me a phone call which operates here as my old USA-NH number 603-668-4207.

By: Transcripts

Transcripts — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 17:12:00 +0000

Crude Oil: What Goes Up Must Come Down?…

David Merkel submits: It was only two months ago when I wrote my surprisingly well-received post, Ten…

By: DaveinHackensack

DaveinHackensack — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 14:22:33 +0000

High prices do encourage more oil exploration and more efficient use of oil, but there are lag times of several years on both counts. It can take 5-10 years to produce oil from a new discovery, and it can take years for most drivers to switch to more fuel efficient vehicles, as the switching costs are often higher than the savings in fuel. For those reasons, I’m confident that the secular bull market in oil will continue for another five years, despite the current cyclical correction. This isn’t the first cyclical correction in oil prices since the current bull market began, and it probably won’t be the last.

By: James Hodgins

James Hodgins — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 11:17:54 +0000

David, you write that “Momentum is a really simple strategy; do what the majority are doing.” I would take issue with this statement. As most studies of the “disposition effect” show, the majority of investors sell their winners and hold onto or buy more of their losers, and by a margin of roughly 1.8:1. So isn’t momentum investing really providing liquidity to the market by doing the opposite of what most investors do?

Cheers.

James

By: Denis Lau

Denis Lau — Sun, 17 Aug 2008 11:44:09 +0000

Crude Oil = over valued commodities

2 more month, 90 USD per barrel.