Blog News and Recent Portfolio Moves

Three notes on the blog itself.  1) I will be guest-blogging for one post at another site on Thursday.  Won’t say where, but watch for “The Fundamentals of Real Estate Market Bottoms.”  It will be reposted here Thursday evening.  2) I can’t paste certain bits of code in my blog because of a WordPress limitation introduced in version 2.5.  As of now, that won’t be remedied until version 2.9, which as far as I can tell, is a huge update, and is at least half a year off.  3) I have not left RealMoney, though I have not posted there in a while.  I started this blog so that I would have a site with my own distinct voice, and so that I could have greater creative freedom to write about things dearer to me that I felt would not fit the RM audience.  Also, I felt that I had run out of articles to write, simply because I held myself to a higher standard, and didn’t want to write articles just for the sake of putting something into print.  RM readers deserve better.  I will come back to posting at RM, I just don’t know when, amid my current busy-ness.

I last mentioned portfolio moves a little more than a month ago.  Here are my moves since then:

Rebalancing Buys:

  • Ensco International
  • Nam Tai Electronics
  • Cemex
  • Assurant
  • Industrias Bachoco
  • Charlotte Russe
  • Valero
  • Cimarex

Rebalancing Sells:

  • Universal American
  • OfficeMax
  • International Rectifier
  • Jones Apparel
  • Smithfield Foods
  • Group 1 Automotive
  • Shoe Carnival

For a six-week period, that ‘s a decent number of trades, at least for me.  My methods are designed to try to not trade frequently, but to trade to minimize risk and maximize return in a majority of situations.  For those not familiar with my rebalancing trades, I keep a fixed set of target weights in a largely equally-weighted portfolio.  When a security gets more than 20% away from its target weight, I buy (after review) to bring it back to target weight, or sell to bring it back to target weight (take some money off the table).

There have been three other actions during this time. 1) National Atlantic’s merger went through.  A loss for me, but I ain’t missing them at all.  2) After the buyback announcement, I traded my holdings in Anadarko for holdings in Devon Energy.  I like the valuation, and the Natural Gas exposure better at Devon.  3) I tendered all my MetLife shares for shares in RGA.  I like RGA a lot here and am willing to make it a double-weight in my portfolio. In the current tender offer, I should get approximately 10% more value in RGA shares for my MetLife shares, subject to a number of conditions listed in the prospectus.  Also, RGA is a unique company that makes its profit mainly from mortality, which is not correlated with other financials.  It is a well-run company, and deserves to be valued at a significant premium to book value.

Full disclosure: long RGA MET DVN SCVL GPI SFD JNY IRF OMX UAM XEC VLO CHIC AIZ IBA CX NTE ESV






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Disclaimer


David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures.


Also, though David runs Aleph Investments, LLC, this blog is not a part of that business. This blog exists to educate investors, and give something back. It is not intended as advertisement for Aleph Investments; David is not soliciting business through it. When David, or a client of David's has an interest in a security mentioned, full disclosure will be given, as has been past practice for all that David does on the web. Disclosure is the breakfast of champions.


Additionally, David may occasionally write about accounting, actuarial, insurance, and tax topics, but nothing written here, at RealMoney, or anywhere else is meant to be formal "advice" in those areas. Consult a reputable professional in those areas to get personal, tailored advice that meets the specialized needs that David can have no knowledge of.

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