Comments on: Another Look at Preliminary Second Quarter GDP http://alephblog.com/2008/09/03/another-look-at-preliminary-second-quarter-gdp/ Helping Institutions and Ordinary People Invest Better by Focusing on Risk Control Sun, 12 Feb 2012 22:02:53 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Chrishttp://alephblog.com/2008/09/03/another-look-at-preliminary-second-quarter-gdp/comment-page-1/#comment-18693 Chris Mon, 08 Sep 2008 14:35:21 +0000 http://alephblog.com/?p=879#comment-18693 Nobody seems to be referencing the blog article that explains it best. From James Hamilton/Econbrowser: http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2008/08/what_does_the_g.html Nobody seems to be referencing the blog article that explains it best. From James Hamilton/Econbrowser:

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2008/08/what_does_the_g.html

]]> By: jessehttp://alephblog.com/2008/09/03/another-look-at-preliminary-second-quarter-gdp/comment-page-1/#comment-18649 jesse Fri, 05 Sep 2008 15:08:16 +0000 http://alephblog.com/?p=879#comment-18649 David, your writing about the difference between GD Product and GD Purchases is great. I would suggest a different name for GD Purchases to avoid confusing the capital P in acronyms. If you change it to GD Acqusitions you can start a GDA series and compare it to GDP. David, your writing about the difference between GD Product and GD Purchases is great. I would suggest a different name for GD Purchases to avoid confusing the capital P in acronyms. If you change it to GD Acqusitions you can start a GDA series and compare it to GDP.

]]> By: David Merkelhttp://alephblog.com/2008/09/03/another-look-at-preliminary-second-quarter-gdp/comment-page-1/#comment-18626 David Merkel Fri, 05 Sep 2008 03:17:07 +0000 http://alephblog.com/?p=879#comment-18626 Cool, Bill. I try not to do forecasts of macroeconomic statistics... I'm no good at it. I will watch and see how it goes... see my note #4 above for what may surprise pundits in 3Q. Cool, Bill. I try not to do forecasts of macroeconomic statistics… I’m no good at it. I will watch and see how it goes… see my note #4 above for what may surprise pundits in 3Q.

]]> By: Bill aka NO DooDahs!http://alephblog.com/2008/09/03/another-look-at-preliminary-second-quarter-gdp/comment-page-1/#comment-18623 Bill aka NO DooDahs! Fri, 05 Sep 2008 00:34:14 +0000 http://alephblog.com/?p=879#comment-18623 My "Real GDP growth" prediction for calendar year 2008, made on Jan 16 of this year, is +2.6%. It was made with a simple multivariate regression analysis. See link: http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/2008/01/gdp-projection-for-2008-and-4q-2007/ David, I trust that early next year, when the number is delivered, you will compile and compare the various predictions from the "blogosphere." I spent all of about 30-45 minutes making mine ... My “Real GDP growth” prediction for calendar year 2008, made on Jan 16 of this year, is +2.6%. It was made with a simple multivariate regression analysis.

See link:
http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/2008/01/gdp-projection-for-2008-and-4q-2007/

David, I trust that early next year, when the number is delivered, you will compile and compare the various predictions from the “blogosphere.” I spent all of about 30-45 minutes making mine …

]]> By: JKHhttp://alephblog.com/2008/09/03/another-look-at-preliminary-second-quarter-gdp/comment-page-1/#comment-18607 JKH Thu, 04 Sep 2008 11:51:29 +0000 http://alephblog.com/?p=879#comment-18607 In case you missed, Mark Thoma at Economist's View also did a nice post on this yesterday. I made a few comments there: http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2008/09/the-gdp-deflato.html?cid=129030428#comment-129030428 In case you missed, Mark Thoma at Economist’s View also did a nice post on this yesterday. I made a few comments there:

http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2008/09/the-gdp-deflato.html?cid=129030428#comment-129030428

]]> By: David Merkelhttp://alephblog.com/2008/09/03/another-look-at-preliminary-second-quarter-gdp/comment-page-1/#comment-18586 David Merkel Wed, 03 Sep 2008 20:37:26 +0000 http://alephblog.com/?p=879#comment-18586 Barry does read me. I've already commented on his blog, so maybe he has gotten the message. If not, the next time I see it, I'll e-mail him... but now, with oil down, the roles of GD Product and GD Purchases should reverse in 3Q -- then it will be interesting to hear the commentary... from both sides, bulls and bears. And me? I'm not very confident either way about the economy right now. There are strong and weak parts... and global demand could pull the US either way. Barry does read me. I’ve already commented on his blog, so maybe he has gotten the message. If not, the next time I see it, I’ll e-mail him… but now, with oil down, the roles of GD Product and GD Purchases should reverse in 3Q — then it will be interesting to hear the commentary… from both sides, bulls and bears.

And me? I’m not very confident either way about the economy right now. There are strong and weak parts… and global demand could pull the US either way.

]]> By: JKHhttp://alephblog.com/2008/09/03/another-look-at-preliminary-second-quarter-gdp/comment-page-1/#comment-18585 JKH Wed, 03 Sep 2008 20:19:19 +0000 http://alephblog.com/?p=879#comment-18585 Excellent. I really wish you and a few of your blogging colleagues who are clear on this issue would do some sort of intervention to help out Big Picture with it. Excellent.

I really wish you and a few of your blogging colleagues who are clear on this issue would do some sort of intervention to help out Big Picture with it.

]]> By: David Merkelhttp://alephblog.com/2008/09/03/another-look-at-preliminary-second-quarter-gdp/comment-page-1/#comment-18583 David Merkel Wed, 03 Sep 2008 18:40:37 +0000 http://alephblog.com/?p=879#comment-18583 Would you believe I saw it 15 minutes after publishing after seeing the link at Alea? Well, I fleshed it out a little more, and confirmation never hurts. Would you believe I saw it 15 minutes after publishing after seeing the link at Alea? Well, I fleshed it out a little more, and confirmation never hurts.

]]> By: quickhttp://alephblog.com/2008/09/03/another-look-at-preliminary-second-quarter-gdp/comment-page-1/#comment-18581 quick Wed, 03 Sep 2008 18:27:53 +0000 http://alephblog.com/?p=879#comment-18581 David, If you haven't seen it, you might be interested in macroblog's take on this issue... http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/2008/09/does-the-gdp-de.html Cheers, David,
If you haven’t seen it, you might be interested in macroblog’s take on this issue…

http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/2008/09/does-the-gdp-de.html

Cheers,

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