Comments on: What’s Going Well, and What’s Not http://alephblog.com/2008/09/11/whats-going-well-and-whats-not/ Helping Institutions and Ordinary People Invest Better by Focusing on Risk Control Sun, 12 Feb 2012 22:02:53 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: kylehttp://alephblog.com/2008/09/11/whats-going-well-and-whats-not/comment-page-1/#comment-18740 kyle Thu, 11 Sep 2008 12:09:05 +0000 http://alephblog.com/?p=903#comment-18740 Your comments about the economy muddling along and that its not as bad as the bears say or as good as the bulls think rings true so far but ECRI and ISI seem to be talking about the economy -- especially overseas getting worse. How long can exports stay strong when the rest of the world is slowing sharply? How long can growth in the US muddle, while the banks shrink? If people like yourself are right that housing prices have another 10-20% to fall, then how likely is it the market has fully discounted all the ramifications of that drop? Of course one could argue that the economy has muddled through the first 10-20% housing price drop so the next one should be more of the same. Still the stock market dropped 20% -- doesn't that imply a potential further 10-20% downside in the market? Interesting too that you were talking more cautiously a few weeks ago when highlighting the money supply/bank shrinkage. thanks for writing -- your insights are very helpful. Kyle Your comments about the economy muddling along and that its not as bad as the bears say or as good as the bulls think rings true so far but ECRI and ISI seem to be talking about the economy — especially overseas getting worse. How long can exports stay strong when the rest of the world is slowing sharply?
How long can growth in the US muddle, while the banks shrink?
If people like yourself are right that housing prices have another 10-20% to fall, then how likely is it the market has fully discounted all the ramifications of that drop?

Of course one could argue that the economy has muddled through the first 10-20% housing price drop so the next one should be more of the same. Still the stock market dropped 20% — doesn’t that imply a potential further 10-20% downside in the market?

Interesting too that you were talking more cautiously a few weeks ago when highlighting the money supply/bank shrinkage.

thanks for writing — your insights are very helpful.

Kyle

]]> By: Annettehttp://alephblog.com/2008/09/11/whats-going-well-and-whats-not/comment-page-1/#comment-18739 Annette Thu, 11 Sep 2008 10:33:34 +0000 http://alephblog.com/?p=903#comment-18739 Good analysis but there is one thing I do not understand: the marginal buyer concept. You mention it; others do as well all over the financial sphere. My question: Isn't the marginal buyer the buyer who got us into this mess? Why help him / her into misery for the perceived temporary good of the whole? Maybe my take is too simplistic and I have it all wrong, but I would say let the marginal buyer save until he/ she is no longer marginal, and stay out of trouble. Best regards! Good analysis but there is one thing I do not understand: the marginal buyer concept. You mention it; others do as well all over the financial sphere.

My question: Isn’t the marginal buyer the buyer who got us into this mess? Why help him / her into misery for the perceived temporary good of the whole?

Maybe my take is too simplistic and I have it all wrong, but I would say let the marginal buyer save until he/ she is no longer marginal, and stay out of trouble.

Best regards!

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