Comments on: One Dozen Observations on the Current Market Stress http://alephblog.com/2008/12/02/one-dozen-observations-on-the-current-market-stress/ Helping Institutions and Ordinary People Invest Better by Focusing on Risk Control Mon, 13 Feb 2012 14:34:49 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Ted Murphyhttp://alephblog.com/2008/12/02/one-dozen-observations-on-the-current-market-stress/comment-page-1/#comment-20265 Ted Murphy Wed, 03 Dec 2008 15:40:00 +0000 http://alephblog.com/?p=1200#comment-20265 David, > This could be what finally does in the dollar. I think the biggest question right now for the future of the dollar is whether or not the US government will lose money on the $3 trillion (?) they have put up to support the US financial system. Do you have an inkling on that? I heard a smart guy last night swear that we wouldn't lose a penny; shocked me, I must admit. And he is very negative on the economy. I'm just saying that the answer is not obvious. David,

> This could be what finally does in the dollar.

I think the biggest question right now for the future of the dollar is whether or not the US government will lose money on the $3 trillion (?) they have put up to support the US financial system.

Do you have an inkling on that? I heard a smart guy last night swear that we wouldn’t lose a penny; shocked me, I must admit. And he is very negative on the economy. I’m just saying that the answer is not obvious.

]]> By: Amicushttp://alephblog.com/2008/12/02/one-dozen-observations-on-the-current-market-stress/comment-page-1/#comment-20255 Amicus Wed, 03 Dec 2008 00:20:29 +0000 http://alephblog.com/?p=1200#comment-20255 David, sorry to hear about your long-too-early thingy. :-( Just a note (since I was just looking at this today), the ratio on TIPs can be less than one (it's the principal at maturity that is no less than par). David, sorry to hear about your long-too-early thingy. :-(

Just a note (since I was just looking at this today), the ratio on TIPs can be less than one (it’s the principal at maturity that is no less than par).

]]> By: Chrishttp://alephblog.com/2008/12/02/one-dozen-observations-on-the-current-market-stress/comment-page-1/#comment-20254 Chris Wed, 03 Dec 2008 00:11:59 +0000 http://alephblog.com/?p=1200#comment-20254 Hi David, you mentioned that you are lightening up on equities. What are you holding instead? cash? Thanks. Hi David, you mentioned that you are lightening up on equities. What are you holding instead? cash?

Thanks.

]]> By: matthttp://alephblog.com/2008/12/02/one-dozen-observations-on-the-current-market-stress/comment-page-1/#comment-20253 matt Tue, 02 Dec 2008 22:24:34 +0000 http://alephblog.com/?p=1200#comment-20253 The softening RMB makes me a little nervous. The export lobby in China is very powerful and has been pushing for a weaker RMB all year. If there is already an overcapacity problem, this will make it worse and extend the problem. The softening RMB makes me a little nervous. The export lobby in China is very powerful and has been pushing for a weaker RMB all year. If there is already an overcapacity problem, this will make it worse and extend the problem.

]]> By: bkmhttp://alephblog.com/2008/12/02/one-dozen-observations-on-the-current-market-stress/comment-page-1/#comment-20243 bkm Tue, 02 Dec 2008 16:45:22 +0000 http://alephblog.com/?p=1200#comment-20243 David, I can't understand why you would be long this year. The warning signs were everywhere. Why would the Fed buy long and flatten the yield curve? It doesn't make sense. A sharper yield curve would give the banks more of an incentive to lend long. If anything, the T should be issuing 30yr by the boatload. D: for the first time this year(last week) I'm net long for a trade. Looking for 1100 before finding a new low David, I can’t understand why you would be long this year. The warning signs were everywhere.

Why would the Fed buy long and flatten the yield curve? It doesn’t make sense. A sharper yield curve would give the banks more of an incentive to lend long. If anything, the T should be issuing 30yr by the boatload.

D: for the first time this year(last week) I’m net long for a trade. Looking for 1100 before finding a new low

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