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> <channel><title>Comments on: What To Do?</title> <atom:link href="http://alephblog.com/2008/12/17/what-to-do/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" /><link>http://alephblog.com/2008/12/17/what-to-do/</link> <description>Helping Institutions and Ordinary People Invest Better by Focusing on Risk Control</description> <lastBuildDate>Sun, 12 Feb 2012 18:05:33 +0000</lastBuildDate> <sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod> <sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency> <generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1</generator> <item><title>By: John</title><link>http://alephblog.com/2008/12/17/what-to-do/comment-page-1/#comment-20448</link> <dc:creator>John</dc:creator> <pubDate>Sun, 21 Dec 2008 12:08:06 +0000</pubDate> <guid
isPermaLink="false">http://alephblog.com/?p=1250#comment-20448</guid> <description>Would it be possible to see your risk questionnaire? I am curious to see what it entails and what my answers reveal.</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Would it be possible to see your risk questionnaire? I am curious to see what it entails and what my answers reveal.</p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item><title>By: cgaros</title><link>http://alephblog.com/2008/12/17/what-to-do/comment-page-1/#comment-20439</link> <dc:creator>cgaros</dc:creator> <pubDate>Fri, 19 Dec 2008 20:40:53 +0000</pubDate> <guid
isPermaLink="false">http://alephblog.com/?p=1250#comment-20439</guid> <description>Stock Swing Trades: Rate cut/equity price correlation is pretty weak - there are more important things to think about.  Notice how short-lived the various rate cut bounces in equities have been.
BJ Feng: I&#039;m pretty sure David knows more than you about bonds.  Under general circumstances and in the long term equities perform better than all types of bonds.  We&#039;re not in general circumstances and we don&#039;t know how long one will have to wait to see renewed dividend raises from many companies.  Think about a company like GE that is able to scrape along and presents minimal true credit risk, but won&#039;t be increasing EPS or dividends any time soon and can&#039;t afford to do buybacks now that the stock price finally justifies it.  Low-priced debt may be a better buy for the next 10 years than volatile equity.  People have recognized this trade in GE (stock price still down while debt prices rebound), but in higher-yield companies there might still be some edge to exploit.  Of course that&#039;s trading sentiment.
In general terms, although HY does share some problems with bonds AND stocks, there&#039;s no asset class that&#039;s permanently useless.  A time when everyone hates high-yield, such as our recent history (in which stocks have been hugely volatile, including to the upside in most people&#039;s memory, and legitimate high-rated bonds have held up pretty well through some equity downturns), is the time to allocate to high-yield.  A time when everyone loves high-yield and agrees that it presents the best of both worlds is the time to get out.  Overall it&#039;s going to fill the hybrid role decently on a long time horizon.
I think the last thing anyone is worried about right now is their high-yield bonds being called at par.  There are plenty of people who would jump at the chance to sell some holdings at fifty cents on the dollar.</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Stock Swing Trades: Rate cut/equity price correlation is pretty weak &#8211; there are more important things to think about.  Notice how short-lived the various rate cut bounces in equities have been.</p><p>BJ Feng: I&#8217;m pretty sure David knows more than you about bonds.  Under general circumstances and in the long term equities perform better than all types of bonds.  We&#8217;re not in general circumstances and we don&#8217;t know how long one will have to wait to see renewed dividend raises from many companies.  Think about a company like GE that is able to scrape along and presents minimal true credit risk, but won&#8217;t be increasing EPS or dividends any time soon and can&#8217;t afford to do buybacks now that the stock price finally justifies it.  Low-priced debt may be a better buy for the next 10 years than volatile equity.  People have recognized this trade in GE (stock price still down while debt prices rebound), but in higher-yield companies there might still be some edge to exploit.  Of course that&#8217;s trading sentiment.</p><p>In general terms, although HY does share some problems with bonds AND stocks, there&#8217;s no asset class that&#8217;s permanently useless.  A time when everyone hates high-yield, such as our recent history (in which stocks have been hugely volatile, including to the upside in most people&#8217;s memory, and legitimate high-rated bonds have held up pretty well through some equity downturns), is the time to allocate to high-yield.  A time when everyone loves high-yield and agrees that it presents the best of both worlds is the time to get out.  Overall it&#8217;s going to fill the hybrid role decently on a long time horizon.</p><p>I think the last thing anyone is worried about right now is their high-yield bonds being called at par.  There are plenty of people who would jump at the chance to sell some holdings at fifty cents on the dollar.</p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item><title>By: Stock Swing Trades</title><link>http://alephblog.com/2008/12/17/what-to-do/comment-page-1/#comment-20436</link> <dc:creator>Stock Swing Trades</dc:creator> <pubDate>Fri, 19 Dec 2008 01:22:40 +0000</pubDate> <guid
isPermaLink="false">http://alephblog.com/?p=1250#comment-20436</guid> <description>I like the diversification that you have although holding 25% international seems like too much at this time when the US is ahead of the rate cuts compared to everyone else.</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I like the diversification that you have although holding 25% international seems like too much at this time when the US is ahead of the rate cuts compared to everyone else.</p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item><title>By: sam mogawe</title><link>http://alephblog.com/2008/12/17/what-to-do/comment-page-1/#comment-20435</link> <dc:creator>sam mogawe</dc:creator> <pubDate>Thu, 18 Dec 2008 21:28:36 +0000</pubDate> <guid
isPermaLink="false">http://alephblog.com/?p=1250#comment-20435</guid> <description>What to do ?
Do NOT buy DFR !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What to do ?</p><p>Do NOT buy DFR !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!</p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item><title>By: Robert</title><link>http://alephblog.com/2008/12/17/what-to-do/comment-page-1/#comment-20432</link> <dc:creator>Robert</dc:creator> <pubDate>Thu, 18 Dec 2008 15:58:29 +0000</pubDate> <guid
isPermaLink="false">http://alephblog.com/?p=1250#comment-20432</guid> <description>Interesting, what is you rebalance stragety for 2009 if you have thought about it.</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Interesting, what is you rebalance stragety for 2009 if you have thought about it.</p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item><title>By: BJ Feng</title><link>http://alephblog.com/2008/12/17/what-to-do/comment-page-1/#comment-20430</link> <dc:creator>BJ Feng</dc:creator> <pubDate>Thu, 18 Dec 2008 13:32:56 +0000</pubDate> <guid
isPermaLink="false">http://alephblog.com/?p=1250#comment-20430</guid> <description>I think you are too heavily invested in high yield bonds.  You would be better served to just buy equities via the Total Stock Market Index Fund instead of substituting in High Yield Corporates to gain equity exposure.  High Yield Bonds do not have the upside potential, but they have most of the downside risk.
Once the credit markets improve, stocks will rise, but your high yield bonds will be called away at par.  The call provision most high yield bonds have severely limit your upside and make high yield bonds a bad choice if you are looking for a &quot;hybrid&quot; type equity/bond allocation.  You would do better just by purchasing equities directly, and then buying short term high quality bonds.  That gives you both equity and bond exposure, but with a better risk/reward profile.
P.S., I like TIPS because they guarantee a positive real return and are a good hedge against inflation.  Especially unexpected inflation.  Real yields were recently above 3%, a great buying opportunity in my opinion.</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think you are too heavily invested in high yield bonds.  You would be better served to just buy equities via the Total Stock Market Index Fund instead of substituting in High Yield Corporates to gain equity exposure.  High Yield Bonds do not have the upside potential, but they have most of the downside risk.</p><p>Once the credit markets improve, stocks will rise, but your high yield bonds will be called away at par.  The call provision most high yield bonds have severely limit your upside and make high yield bonds a bad choice if you are looking for a &#8220;hybrid&#8221; type equity/bond allocation.  You would do better just by purchasing equities directly, and then buying short term high quality bonds.  That gives you both equity and bond exposure, but with a better risk/reward profile.</p><p>P.S., I like TIPS because they guarantee a positive real return and are a good hedge against inflation.  Especially unexpected inflation.  Real yields were recently above 3%, a great buying opportunity in my opinion.</p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item><title>By: Russ Wood</title><link>http://alephblog.com/2008/12/17/what-to-do/comment-page-1/#comment-20429</link> <dc:creator>Russ Wood</dc:creator> <pubDate>Thu, 18 Dec 2008 13:28:08 +0000</pubDate> <guid
isPermaLink="false">http://alephblog.com/?p=1250#comment-20429</guid> <description>David,
A comment and a question.
I second your inclusion of your home in your personal portfolio.  This works generally, but I think it works especially now.  Any investor with a dedicated allocation to treasuries might find paying down their mortgage a superior &quot;bond&quot; strategy.
My question concerns the mention of a risk tolerance survey.  Do you find these reliable?  I see the trouble you had applying it to a group of folks with collective funds.  I also find these surveys unreliable for individuals.
Thanks</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>David,<br
/> A comment and a question.<br
/> I second your inclusion of your home in your personal portfolio.  This works generally, but I think it works especially now.  Any investor with a dedicated allocation to treasuries might find paying down their mortgage a superior &#8220;bond&#8221; strategy.<br
/> My question concerns the mention of a risk tolerance survey.  Do you find these reliable?  I see the trouble you had applying it to a group of folks with collective funds.  I also find these surveys unreliable for individuals.<br
/> Thanks</p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item><title>By: moom</title><link>http://alephblog.com/2008/12/17/what-to-do/comment-page-1/#comment-20426</link> <dc:creator>moom</dc:creator> <pubDate>Thu, 18 Dec 2008 07:45:33 +0000</pubDate> <guid
isPermaLink="false">http://alephblog.com/?p=1250#comment-20426</guid> <description>How has the &quot;Church Portfolio&quot; performed since inception?</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>How has the &#8220;Church Portfolio&#8221; performed since inception?</p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> </channel> </rss>
