Archive for December 20th, 2008

Book Review: Lombard Street

Saturday, December 20th, 2008

This is a wonky book, and not for everyone.  It details the actions of monetary policy in the United Kingdom for much of the 19th Century.  In Great Britain, that was a century of incredible growth, and yet stability of the overall price level.  The Gold Standard worked, and the UK Government di not try to cheat on it, as it did in the early 20th century before the Great Depression.

One of Bagehot’s main ideas was that during a crisis, central banks should lend at a penalty rate without limit, and that would re-liquefy the marginal banks in the system that just needed a little to get by.  Bad banks would fail; good banks would not need to borrow.  We can contrast that with present policy of the Fed to lend against marginal collateral at favorable rates.  Ain’t no chance of us getting out of the problem that way.  All we do is create a new class of arbitageurs to extract money from the taxpayers, or Treasury note buyers.

The mangement of a good central bank is very conservative, and keeps a reserve large enough to avoid all disasters.  This again is the diametric opposite of the Federal Reserve, which was not in a conservative posture, and believes it can solve all of the credit problems through the wanton expansion of its balance sheet.

For a classic understanding of central banking, do not read Ben Bernanke.  Instead, read Walter Bagehot.  If you want to buy it, you can find it here: Lombard Street: a description of the money market.  Or, you can get it for free here.

PS — Remember, I don’t have a tip jar, but I do do book reviews.  If you enter Amazon through a link on my site and buy things from them, I get a small commission, and you don’t pay anything extra.  I’m not out to sell things to you, so much as provide a service.  Not all books are good, and not every book is right for everyone, and I try to make that clear, rather than only giving positive book reviews on new books.  I review old books that have dropped of the radar as well, like this one, because they are often more valuable than what you can find on the shelves at your local bookstore.

Bank Guarantees and Defined Contribution Plan Exchange Frequency

Saturday, December 20th, 2008

At his excellent blog, Paul Kedrosky posted a piece on bank deposit guarantees across nations.  It included this graph:

Now I will give you an unusual analogy that reflects the story that this graph is telling us.  This is somewhat like what the Defined Contribution [DC] plan industry went through when it moved from annual valuation, annual redirection of monies, to quarterly, to monthly, to the eventual change your asset allocation once a day if you like.

With annually, a huge number of people would make moves. Quarterly, not so much, but it still increased the over all number of transactions. Monthly brought a decline in the total number of transactions. Daily? Few people transact because they can always do it.

So, when the guarantee is unlimited, few take advantage of it. When it is limited, people get far closer to the limit on average.

This is just another application of behavioral economics.  When something is free, people don’t value it as much, so they don’t use it.  When something is hard to do and valuable, they take every opportunity.  In between they act to some degree to preserve value at the appropriate dates or amounts.  After all they will have another chance soon.

Disclaimer


David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures.


Also, though David runs Aleph Investments, LLC, this blog is not a part of that business. This blog exists to educate investors, and give something back. It is not intended as advertisement for Aleph Investments; David is not soliciting business through it. When David, or a client of David's has an interest in a security mentioned, full disclosure will be given, as has been past practice for all that David does on the web. Disclosure is the breakfast of champions.


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