Comments on: The Shadows of the Crisis: Past and Future http://alephblog.com/2008/12/30/the-shadows-of-the-crisis-past-and-future/ Helping Institutions and Ordinary People Invest Better by Focusing on Risk Control Sun, 12 Feb 2012 22:02:53 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: David swensenhttp://alephblog.com/2008/12/30/the-shadows-of-the-crisis-past-and-future/comment-page-1/#comment-21074 David swensen Mon, 02 Mar 2009 22:28:28 +0000 http://alephblog.com/?p=1297#comment-21074 I have had a problem with the way cramer dispenses financial advice like he knows the financial scene and the direction of the market. he may be a great guy on a personal level, but professionaly he has negatively affected tons of people. Be careful of who you get your financial advice from. I have had a problem with the way cramer dispenses financial advice like he knows the financial scene and the direction of the market. he may be a great guy on a personal level, but professionaly he has negatively affected tons of people. Be careful of who you get your financial advice from.

]]> By: Paul in Kansas Cityhttp://alephblog.com/2008/12/30/the-shadows-of-the-crisis-past-and-future/comment-page-1/#comment-20570 Paul in Kansas City Thu, 01 Jan 2009 01:17:25 +0000 http://alephblog.com/?p=1297#comment-20570 I want to disclose that I have corresponded with Cramer for many years so I can be correctly accused of "teacher worship". He is a great guy on a personal level so it is hard to be objective. FWIW He has helped me immensely (as have David and Howard Simons on RealMoney); I'd throw in some other bloggers such as Jeff Miller who's analysis is a must read. I am not hung up on pundit track records because as David has pointed out it is an impossible task. From my point of view the most important thing I have learned from David, Cramer, Howard, Jeff, etc. is how to make more informed decisions (endless improvement needed on my part) and take 100% responsibility. It is easier for me to take that road because I have an advisory business so passing the buck to david,cramer etc, doesn't fly. I don't know Jeff but I can vouch for the effort and goodwill extended to me by the above gentleman. david; thanks again for your work. It has made probably one of the most stressful moments of my life (professionally) much more bearable. I want to disclose that I have corresponded with Cramer for many years so I can be correctly accused of “teacher worship”. He is a great guy on a personal level so it is hard to be objective. FWIW He has helped me immensely (as have David and Howard Simons on RealMoney); I’d throw in some other bloggers such as Jeff Miller who’s analysis is a must read. I am not hung up on pundit track records because as David has pointed out it is an impossible task. From my point of view the most important thing I have learned from David, Cramer, Howard, Jeff, etc. is how to make more informed decisions (endless improvement needed on my part) and take 100% responsibility. It is easier for me to take that road because I have an advisory business so passing the buck to david,cramer etc, doesn’t fly. I don’t know Jeff but I can vouch for the effort and goodwill extended to me by the above gentleman. david; thanks again for your work. It has made probably one of the most stressful moments of my life (professionally) much more bearable.

]]> By: David Merkelhttp://alephblog.com/2008/12/30/the-shadows-of-the-crisis-past-and-future/comment-page-1/#comment-20566 David Merkel Wed, 31 Dec 2008 18:54:56 +0000 http://alephblog.com/?p=1297#comment-20566 Eric, I think we agree more than we disagree. It's pretty well established that his track record as a pundit is poor. He does say some valuable things, but there's a ton of noise around his statements, making it impossible for any novice to find the good bits. In general, people would be better off turning off all investment TV, and read more books, which is why I review books here. It's also why I tended to write more long and and deep articles at RealMoney dealing with how to understand, rather than what stock to buy now. One more note: I wrote my series on using investment advice with Cramer in mind. http://www.thestreet.com/p/_rms/comment/davidmerkel/10244269.html Eric, I think we agree more than we disagree. It’s pretty well established that his track record as a pundit is poor. He does say some valuable things, but there’s a ton of noise around his statements, making it impossible for any novice to find the good bits.

In general, people would be better off turning off all investment TV, and read more books, which is why I review books here. It’s also why I tended to write more long and and deep articles at RealMoney dealing with how to understand, rather than what stock to buy now.

One more note: I wrote my series on using investment advice with Cramer in mind.

http://www.thestreet.com/p/_rms/comment/davidmerkel/10244269.html

]]> By: Erichttp://alephblog.com/2008/12/30/the-shadows-of-the-crisis-past-and-future/comment-page-1/#comment-20565 Eric Wed, 31 Dec 2008 18:07:42 +0000 http://alephblog.com/?p=1297#comment-20565 <I> And.....my problem is that he's constantly leading people to believe that's he's actually succeeded. I can't state it any more plainly than that. I would say we could "agree to disagree", but that would suggest you've addressed my point. Oh well. I'll drop the whole issue with this quote: "Nothing Jim Cramer says helps people make better decisions." David Swensen, Chief Investment Officer, Yale University. And…..my problem is that he’s constantly leading people to believe that’s he’s actually succeeded. I can’t state it any more plainly than that. I would say we could “agree to disagree”, but that would suggest you’ve addressed my point. Oh well. I’ll drop the whole issue with this quote: “Nothing Jim Cramer says helps people make better decisions.” David Swensen, Chief Investment Officer, Yale University.

]]> By: Terryhttp://alephblog.com/2008/12/30/the-shadows-of-the-crisis-past-and-future/comment-page-1/#comment-20561 Terry Wed, 31 Dec 2008 16:30:31 +0000 http://alephblog.com/?p=1297#comment-20561 Well, now back to the topic at hand. I have found myself regularly nodding my head in agreement as I read your posts, Dave, because I am skeptical about our current economic condition as well as Fed & Treasury policies throwing money (yours and mine) at it. NTL, I remain a bit more optimistic than you about the longer term. Although I'm not smart enough to figure out exactly how, I think we will find a means to once again hold the beast of reduced economic reliability at bay. For one thing, I don't see an alternative place for foreign governments (& others) to invest that may be better than the US. China? Europe? Japan? I don't think so. Still, it could be an ugly global economy for longer than I expect. If the US doesn't lead us out of the global funk, who will? Well, now back to the topic at hand. I have found myself regularly nodding my head in agreement as I read your posts, Dave, because I am skeptical about our current economic condition as well as Fed & Treasury policies throwing money (yours and mine) at it.

NTL, I remain a bit more optimistic than you about the longer term. Although I’m not smart enough to figure out exactly how, I think we will find a means to once again hold the beast of reduced economic reliability at bay. For one thing, I don’t see an alternative place for foreign governments (& others) to invest that may be better than the US. China? Europe? Japan? I don’t think so.

Still, it could be an ugly global economy for longer than I expect. If the US doesn’t lead us out of the global funk, who will?

]]> By: David Merkelhttp://alephblog.com/2008/12/30/the-shadows-of-the-crisis-past-and-future/comment-page-1/#comment-20560 David Merkel Wed, 31 Dec 2008 15:27:26 +0000 http://alephblog.com/?p=1297#comment-20560 Eric, at RealMoney I often corrected Cramer in polite ways. I don't own a television, so I don't see him on CNBC. But judging by how Cramer's writing has shifted over the years, he has become less accurate as the media he responds to (television now, mainly) has become more short-cycle. Good investment writing requires a perspective that considers longer time horizons. It also requires a willingness to seriously consider the other side of an argument. It should be interesting, but usually not sensational. Cramer is a bright guy who has taken on an impossible task -- trying to make good investing exciting for the masses. First, the masses don't truly have the stomach for it. Second, Cramer does not clearly point out the time horizons for his recommendations (something that I recommended a number of times at RealMoney). Third, good investing involves a degree of tedious work, which does not easily transfer to TV. TSCM at some point really cranked up Cramer's production schedule -- both web and video, because they found that their profitability benefited in the short run from more content from Cramer -- the trouble was that in the long run, it harmed their prize asset. Read his early stuff, much of it is very insightful. I learned a lot from Cramer on trading 1999-2002. So, why I am I not writing at RM at present? It started by being too busy -- I started the blog to give me my own voice, oddly, encouraged by some who were polite critics of Cramer (who liked me). The second phase was reading RM and realizing that I did not have an easy place to contribute there; I wasn't sure what good I would be doing amid the noise. The third phase was realizing that there wasn't much I was reading there any more. I joined the site because I loved it and couldn't get along without it. I can get along without it today -- I haven't read it in two months or so. Cramer is easy to bash, but my character is not the one that takes the bat to the pinata. In the article cited, I half agreed with Jim. I spend my time trying more to point out what's true, rather than engage in debates focused on the person, rather than the ideas that are there. Finally, from what I know about Jim, I know he means well. I think he is stuck in a position where he is trying to accomplish the impossible. Eric, at RealMoney I often corrected Cramer in polite ways. I don’t own a television, so I don’t see him on CNBC. But judging by how Cramer’s writing has shifted over the years, he has become less accurate as the media he responds to (television now, mainly) has become more short-cycle.

Good investment writing requires a perspective that considers longer time horizons. It also requires a willingness to seriously consider the other side of an argument. It should be interesting, but usually not sensational.

Cramer is a bright guy who has taken on an impossible task — trying to make good investing exciting for the masses. First, the masses don’t truly have the stomach for it. Second, Cramer does not clearly point out the time horizons for his recommendations (something that I recommended a number of times at RealMoney). Third, good investing involves a degree of tedious work, which does not easily transfer to TV.

TSCM at some point really cranked up Cramer’s production schedule — both web and video, because they found that their profitability benefited in the short run from more content from Cramer — the trouble was that in the long run, it harmed their prize asset. Read his early stuff, much of it is very insightful. I learned a lot from Cramer on trading 1999-2002.

So, why I am I not writing at RM at present? It started by being too busy — I started the blog to give me my own voice, oddly, encouraged by some who were polite critics of Cramer (who liked me). The second phase was reading RM and realizing that I did not have an easy place to contribute there; I wasn’t sure what good I would be doing amid the noise. The third phase was realizing that there wasn’t much I was reading there any more. I joined the site because I loved it and couldn’t get along without it. I can get along without it today — I haven’t read it in two months or so.

Cramer is easy to bash, but my character is not the one that takes the bat to the pinata. In the article cited, I half agreed with Jim. I spend my time trying more to point out what’s true, rather than engage in debates focused on the person, rather than the ideas that are there.

Finally, from what I know about Jim, I know he means well. I think he is stuck in a position where he is trying to accomplish the impossible.

]]> By: Erichttp://alephblog.com/2008/12/30/the-shadows-of-the-crisis-past-and-future/comment-page-1/#comment-20559 Eric Wed, 31 Dec 2008 14:06:25 +0000 http://alephblog.com/?p=1297#comment-20559 David, I don't dispute that people in the punditry world owe Cramer their starts. But that only underscores my point. Consider how strange it was for Aaron Task to sit down next to Henry Blodget for the first time. Task owes his start to Cramer just like you do. But Blodget, because he had little to lose and owed Cramer nothing, had the guts to openly (and correctly) question Cramer's "guru" reputation. I'm saying that Cramer gets away with murder because darn few people are willing, out of fear or gratitude or whatever, to point out how he cherry picks from his constant stream of predictions to create the impression that he's been on top of things every step of the way when he's actually been awful. Do you disagree? David, I don’t dispute that people in the punditry world owe Cramer their starts. But that only underscores my point. Consider how strange it was for Aaron Task to sit down next to Henry Blodget for the first time. Task owes his start to Cramer just like you do. But Blodget, because he had little to lose and owed Cramer nothing, had the guts to openly (and correctly) question Cramer’s “guru” reputation. I’m saying that Cramer gets away with murder because darn few people are willing, out of fear or gratitude or whatever, to point out how he cherry picks from his constant stream of predictions to create the impression that he’s been on top of things every step of the way when he’s actually been awful. Do you disagree?

]]> By: David Merkelhttp://alephblog.com/2008/12/30/the-shadows-of-the-crisis-past-and-future/comment-page-1/#comment-20556 David Merkel Wed, 31 Dec 2008 08:22:09 +0000 http://alephblog.com/?p=1297#comment-20556 Eric -- Cramer did one really nice thing for me. He invited me to write for RealMoney, and that's what got me into investment writing. Canuck -- Hope you are right, but our dear government has buried the problem for over 25 years now. Eric — Cramer did one really nice thing for me. He invited me to write for RealMoney, and that’s what got me into investment writing.

Canuck — Hope you are right, but our dear government has buried the problem for over 25 years now.

]]> By: Canuckhttp://alephblog.com/2008/12/30/the-shadows-of-the-crisis-past-and-future/comment-page-1/#comment-20555 Canuck Wed, 31 Dec 2008 04:10:58 +0000 http://alephblog.com/?p=1297#comment-20555 In respect to the much shortened time frame in which the events you so presciently suggested might occur, I would posit the exponential growth of the Fed's balance sheet has similarly acted to exponentially shorten the feedback effect of the monetary stimulus. In like fashion, the fiscal disequilibriums you cite, may be resolved considerably more quickly than anyone might anticipate. I suspect we won't need to hold our breaths for a decade. In respect to the much shortened time frame in which the events you so presciently suggested might occur, I would posit the exponential growth of the Fed’s balance sheet has similarly acted to exponentially shorten the feedback effect of the monetary stimulus.
In like fashion, the fiscal disequilibriums you cite, may be resolved considerably more quickly than anyone might anticipate.
I suspect we won’t need to hold our breaths for a decade.

]]> By: Erichttp://alephblog.com/2008/12/30/the-shadows-of-the-crisis-past-and-future/comment-page-1/#comment-20554 Eric Wed, 31 Dec 2008 03:16:19 +0000 http://alephblog.com/?p=1297#comment-20554 You lost me when you said you like Jim Cramer. Seriously, all hyperbole aside, it is a demonstrable fact that Jim Cramer frequently misleads his readers into thinking that he's been on top of major market developments when he's really messed up badly. He's someone who will put his own interests ahead of the truth when necessary. Just one quote proves my point: "Was there anyone out there who more loudly announced this credit crisis before it happened than I did?" -- Jim Cramer, April 1, 2008. Unfortunately, there are a lot of "journalists" out there who know how much power Cramer wields. And so, wary of their own position in the punditry world, they play friendly and say how much they like him. I'd like 30 minutes alone in a room with these guys, a voice recorder and a syringe of Sodium Pentothal -- we'd see what they really think of James Cramer. You lost me when you said you like Jim Cramer. Seriously, all hyperbole aside, it is a demonstrable fact that Jim Cramer frequently misleads his readers into thinking that he’s been on top of major market developments when he’s really messed up badly. He’s someone who will put his own interests ahead of the truth when necessary. Just one quote proves my point: “Was there anyone out there who more loudly announced this credit crisis before it happened than I did?” — Jim Cramer, April 1, 2008. Unfortunately, there are a lot of “journalists” out there who know how much power Cramer wields. And so, wary of their own position in the punditry world, they play friendly and say how much they like him. I’d like 30 minutes alone in a room with these guys, a voice recorder and a syringe of Sodium Pentothal — we’d see what they really think of James Cramer.

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