Reasons for Optimism, Or Not

Natively, I tend to be an optimist.? The present environment has given thin gruel for optimism, so I haven’t been as perky as I might otherwise be.? Here are a few reasons for optimism:

  • Credit spreads have been declining, and more corporate bond deals are getting done in the credit markets.
  • Commodity prices have fallen and stabilized.
  • The balance sheet of the Federal Reserve is shrinking.
  • Money market and other short duration funds seem to be safe.
  • Equities might be cheap relative to cash, but are still expensive relative to junk and low investment grade bond yields.

On that last point I want to quote Doug Kass, who I respect as an investor:

On multiple fronts, equities appear to have incorporated the bad news and are undervalued both absolutely and relative to fixed income:

  1. The risk premium, the market’s earnings yield less the risk-free rate of return, is substantially above the long-term average reading.
  2. Using reasonably conservative assumptions (most importantly, a near 50% peak-to-trough earnings decline, which is over 3x the drop in an average recession), the market has discounted 2009 S&P 500 earnings of about $47.
  3. Valuations are low vis-?-vis a decelerating (and near zero) rate of inflation. Indeed, the current market multiple is consistent with a 6% rate of inflation.
  4. Stock prices as a percentage of replacement book value stand at 1x, well below the 1.4x long-term average.
  5. The market capitalization of U.S. stocks vs. stated GDP has dropped dramatically, to about 80%, now at the long-term average. Warren Buffett was recently interviewed in Fortune Magazine and observed that this ratio was evidence that stocks have become attractive.
  6. The 10-year rolling annualized return of the S&P is at its lowest level in nearly 75 years, having recently broken below the levels achieved in the late 1930s and mid 1970s.
  7. A record percentage of companies have dividend yields that are greater than the yield on the 10-year U.S. note. At 46% of the companies, that is over 4x higher than in 2002 and compares against only 5% on average over the last 30 years.

On point 1, I will say that equities are cheap to cash and Treasuries, but not Corporate bonds and bank debt.

For point 2, we have gone through a massive levering up; it would be no surprise to see a leveraging down.

Point 3 — I don’t get it.? Inflation has a small effect on valuations.

Point 4 — This is true but it could go lower because there is no one that wants to buy and hold at present.

Point 5 — In this environment, where there is a lack of buy and hold capacity, why are we satisfied with normal valuations?

Point 6 — True for Treasuries, wrong for corporates.

Point 7 — The 10-year Treasury is artificially low.?? It is not a good metric for dividend yields.

Mr. Kass is a bright man, and probably a better investor than me, but there are reasons to be concerned in this economic environment.? Be careful, and don’t make rash moves in this volatile environment.

7 thoughts on “Reasons for Optimism, Or Not

  1. David,

    I read Doug Kass’ article, and I would make two points. On your point 3, I think he was interpreting what Treasury yields normally would be at this market multiple, and then extrapolating what amount of inflation would be implied at that yield level. If it implies inflation of 6%, and actual and likely inflation is much less, then the market is cheap.

    The second point is that Kass seemed to incrementally becoming more bullish, but wasn’t in “screaming-buy” mode, and I think he also advocated making slow, incremental moves at this point in his conclusion.

    Steve

  2. David,
    Enjoyed this article — very interesting. Regarding point #3, there does seem to be some historical relationship between inflation and P/E ratios. Goldman Sachs looked at 1950-2006 and came up with the following averages:
    Inflation Avg S&P500 P/E
    Less than 2.5% 18.6x
    2.5-3.5% 17.6
    3.5-4.5% 12.1
    4.5-5.5% 14.2
    5.5-6.5% 12.8
    6.5-7.5% 10.0
    Greater than 7.5% 8.6

  3. I have been a contrarian all my working life. Sometimes I got caught out, thinking “this time it’s different”. The problem is – that this time it is different……

  4. Forgive me for being off-topic, but do you have any timeline on when you are going to finish the story about the insurance executives? I’m dying to know what happens!

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