What a year. If the first year of this blog wasn’t exciting enough, year two was enough to make your heart flutter. What have we seen in year two?
- The demise of Bear, Lehman, AIG, Fannie, Freddie, and more.
- The near-demise of Citi, Bank of America, and many other financials.
- The US government floundering as it gropes for solutions.
- The Federal Reserve tries all manner of novel schemes to support leverage, as they move into a ZIRP with Japan, and the rest of the world trailing. Quantitative easing remains, if they have enough money to buy helicopter fuel.
- The collapse of the international division of labor as exports dry up globally.
- The grand round trip for commodities as the world could not maintain the frantic pace of growth that had been fueled by leverage and neomercantilism.
- The start of trade wars, as nations look to protect their home markets.
- The loss of faith in currencies, as gold continues to rise.
- Risk assets get shellacked, whether public or private.
- Pension plans, endowments, and other institutions suffer. Governments realize that they were reliant on the overleveraged markets as well.
- Residential real estate continues to fall in value, dragging mortgages and banks down with it.
- Commercial real estate begins its long soft era.
- My portfolio has beaten the broad market indexes for another year, though not as convincingly as in the past.
Those who have read me a long time know that my interests in investing are broad. Being an economist, as well as a quantitative and qualitative investment analyst gives me more tools to work with.
But where am I going from here? I am slowing down. For two years, I have tried to keep up a pace of two posts a day, six days a week. Well, it has turned out to be more like nine posts per week, 75% of my goal. As when I wrote for RealMoney, my own standards hindered my goal. (At RealMoney, I wrote few articles near the end, because I did not feel that I had more to write that justified an article.)
I could put out a lot more posts, and quote other sources more broadly. I would rather just link to them so that they get credit for their material, and then write more. After all, if I am writing, I ought to put forth my opinion, not just quote someone else.
But blogging has crimped my ability to serve my firm, my family, and my church. Much as I enjoy the interaction in the blogosphere, I am going to slow down my posting rate at The Aleph Blog. My apologies to any who are saddened by this, but I hope to keep the quality of my posts high. My posting rate is targeted at three times per week.
This is post #886 at The Aleph Blog. Post #900 will have something more on this topic, together with ways that we can work together more profitably.
I close with thanks. I am big on gratitude. Thanks to those who read me; your time is valuable. Thanks to those who comment; you sharpen me. Thanks to those who link to me; I don’t deserve it. Thanks to those I link to; you are doing great work (or lousy work, as the case may be). To my family and church, thank you. Finally, thanks be to Jesus Christ. Woo-hoo! What a great year!