Monthly Archives: June 2009

A Redacted Copy of the June FOMC Statement

April 2009 June 2009 Comments Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the economy has continued to contract, though the pace of contraction appears to be somewhat slower. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the pace of economic contraction is slowing. Conditions […]

Stating the Case; No State Prosperity, and National Prosperity is Questionable

One thing that I watch closely is the health of the finances of the states.  Because they don’t have a printing press, and most of them have to balance their budgets, they are a better read on the health of the economy than national statistics. As it is, states are cutting their budgets drastically because […]


When people look at this crisis, they look for simple answers — they want to find one or two parties to blame, not many, a la my Blame Game series.  The economic system is an interconnected web, and it is not easy to change one part without affecting many others.  Intelligent ideas for change consider […]

Praise for Peter Bernstein

I have learned a lot from the late Peter Bernstein. I remember a piece of his entitled (something like), “What is Liquidity?” where he described liquidity as the ability to change your mind or request a do-over. Bright guy, and one who focused on the big issues, not minutiae. I met Peter Bernstein in 2002 […]

Problems with Constant Compound Interest (3)

This post should end the series, at least for now.  Tonight I want to talk about the limits to compounding growth.  Drawing from an old article of mine freely available at TSCM, I quote  the following regarding talking to management teams: What single constraint on the profitable growth of your enterprise would you eliminate if […]

Ten Points — Mainly About the Debt Markets

1) Why have long interest rates been rising? Increased supply. Mortgage bond/supply hedging. (also one, two) Belief in a strengthening economy. Long-term inflation expectations have been rising. Some foreign investors are selling. Flight to trash. Number 1 is incontrovertible.  Number 2 is close.  Number three is true, though the economy is not strengthening that much […]