A Redacted Copy of the June FOMC Statement

April 2009June 2009Comments
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the economy has continued to contract, though the pace of contraction appears to be somewhat slower.Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the pace of economic contraction is slowing. Conditions in financial markets have generally improved in recent months.The FOMC is following trends in the financial markets. The stock market is higher, and credit spreads are tighter, but what of tomorrow?
Household spending has shown signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, lower housing wealth, and tight credit.Household spending has shown further signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, lower housing wealth, and tight credit.The FOMC sees further signs of stabilization of household spending.
Weak sales prospects and difficulties in obtaining credit have led businesses to cut back on inventories, fixed investment, and staffing.Businesses are cutting back on fixed investment and staffing but appear to be making progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales.They view much of the weakness as being an inventory correction that will end soon.
Although the economic outlook has improved modestly since the March meeting, partly reflecting some easing of financial market conditions, economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time,They are more certain that economic conditions have improved.
Nonetheless, the Committee continues to anticipate that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability.the Committee continues to anticipate that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability.Materially the same.
In light of increasing economic slack here and abroad, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued. Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term.The prices of energy and other commodities have risen of late. However, substantial resource slack is likely to dampen cost pressures, and the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.They trust that slack capacity will keep inflation low, despite rising commodity prices. They are less worried bout deflation. Stagflation is not a word in their vocabulary.
In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability.In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability.Identical
The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and anticipates that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.They are trying to lengthen the view of the market on how long the FOMC is able to maintain a low fed funds rate.
As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year.As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year.Identical.
In addition, the Federal Reserve will buy up to $300 billion of Treasury securities by autumn.In addition, the Federal Reserve will buy up to $300 billion of Treasury securities by autumn.Identical.
The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets.The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets.Identical.
The Federal Reserve is facilitating the extension of credit to households and businesses and supporting the functioning of financial markets through a range of liquidity programs. The Committee will continue to carefully monitor the size and composition of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet in light of financial and economic developments.The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted.Much language change; not much substantive change.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.Identical.

Quick Hits:

  • The FOMC is following trends in the financial markets. The stock market is higher, and credit spreads are tighter, but what of tomorrow?
  • They view much of the weakness as being an inventory correction that will end soon.
  • They trust that slack capacity will keep inflation low, despite rising commodity prices. They are less worried bout deflation. Stagflation is not a word in their vocabulary.
  • They are trying to lengthen the view of the market on how long the FOMC is able to maintain a low fed funds rate.
  • They are projecting calm to all who will listen, but will inflation and the dollar cooperate?  Will economic weakness not deepen from here?  The jury is out.