Comments on: China, the Wild Card — Seven Notes

By: David Merkel

David Merkel — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 05:25:57 +0000

darren — I’ll have more on utilities — this isn’t the reason to buy them. Later tonight, I’ll have a sector analysis post up.

matt — as it gets closer to zero, there should be upward pressure on interest rates, because of the lack of subsidy to the current account deficit, and an economy where the export sector is doing pretty well. Oh, and the US dollar should be lower.

By: darren

darren — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 03:20:12 +0000

should you follow the link to the actual article from Andy (two links in) here’s the end quote from it…

“If you are a speculator and confident you can get out before it crashes, this is your market. If you think this market is for real, you are making a mistake and should get out as soon as possible. If you lost money during your last three market entries, stay away from this one – as far as you can.”

David, I’m generally impressed with your perspective, but this feels like it needs a broader source of inputs. I like the utils too, but not based on this.

By: Saloner

Saloner — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 02:43:36 +0000

My compliments on an excellent post Mr.Merkel. There have been very few recent articles that lay the perspective out as well as this one.
Very well done indeed.

By: matt

matt — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 22:46:18 +0000

What if the U.S. current account deficit goes near zero?

By: David Merkel

David Merkel — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 21:13:31 +0000

oops on Andy Xie… thanks for pointing that out, Dan

By: Harper Capital

Harper Capital — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 20:32:54 +0000

…Wasn’t Andy Xie fired for being a little too honest about certain Asian leaders? Asian leaders who happen to control who get to underwrite debt offerings and Investment banking contracts?

Gotta love an honest analyst. HCP.

By: Dan

Dan — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 19:37:59 +0000

Just to be clear, Andy Xie left Morgan Stanley several years ago.

By: Paul in Kansas City

Paul in Kansas City — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 17:02:45 +0000

Thought provoking. I like the pipelines.

By: steve

steve — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 16:02:36 +0000

wrote on China yesterday, their economy our problem. take a look econmkts.blogspot.com

By: Bo

Bo — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 13:39:24 +0000

This is very true. There is a big financial bubble(real estate and stocks) in China as well as a big capacity bubble. In a sense today’s China is more like US in the 1920s right before the great depression where you have huge over capacity with little or no social safety net. However I think near term it is actually very positive for the equity and commodity markets as facing a challenge the authority will always choose to defer the hard choices which means they will keep flooding the market with cheap money. Ultimately it will collapse but I am not seeing it in the charts yet.