The Aleph Blog » Blog Archive » Not so Cheap Trills

Not so Cheap Trills

What would you pay for a bond that offered to pay you $1/year, but would increase its payment by 3.4% each year?  Assume that bonds that offer no increase in payment, but offer $1/year currently yield 4.4%, for a price of $22.73.  Assuming there is no doubt about the creditworthiness of the issuer, one should be willing to pay $94.48 for the bond increasing its payment at 3.4% per year, accepting an initial current yield of 1.06%.

That is part of the idea behind bonds that Dr. Schiller is proposing.  These bonds called trills would:

  • Pay one trillionth of GDP as interest each year.
  • Would be full faith and credit bonds of the US Government.
  • Would be consols — perpetual bonds that never pay the principal back.

The key here is how fast GDP grows in nominal terms.  TIPS increase at the rate of the CPI-U.  If there is growth over the inflation rate, a trill would  be more valuable than TIPS, and at equivalent interest rates, people would pay more for trills.

My interest rate models indicate that if the US were to issue a consol, a perpetual bond, it would have a yield near 4.4%.  Here’s the question: what do you think nominal GDP growth will be on average  forever?  If it is above 4.4%, one should be willing to pay an infinite amount to buy it.  At lower rates of nominal GDP growth, the security will have a finite value that declines rapidly with lower nominal GDP growth.

Trills would be volatile securities.  The prices would fall hard during periods where long term interest rates are rising, but where GDP is not expected to be growing as rapidly.  Conversely, they would rise rapidly when long term interest rates are falling, but where GDP is not expected to be shrinking as rapidly.

I would not want the US Government to issue trills.  Why?  They suck a lot of money in, and do not consider what it will do to the government in future years.  I can say with confidence that a large issuance of trills would lead to the demise of the US Government.  There is no way that the government could keep up with the payments, because most finance today relies on the idea that the economy can grow out of the debt burden.  With trills, that is not possible.

Trills sound like a nifty idea, an to indebted governments, they offer very cheap finance in the short run, but the eventual end is the insolvency of the government that cant keep up with the increase in interest payments.

Governments want to keep the option of inflating away their debts if they can.  Don’t tell governments in the EU about this though.  They sold that option too cheaply.

In summary, trills are a bad idea.  They are just another way for the government to suck in a lot of money in the short run, while paying out far more forever.






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9 Responses to Not so Cheap Trills

  1. Michael says:

    I like Dr. Shiller. However, this might be the worst idea I’ve ever heard of. In fact, it is so bad that Dr. Shiller has lost some credibility (with me at least). I know you think they are bad idea but I don’t think “bad” properly describes trills. “Absolutely ruinous” is more appropriate.

  2. Peter says:

    At this point it is vividly clear even to the blind that the ruling Financial Oligarhy is plain nuts.
    I would have titled Dr.Shiller’s NYT article:”Flying over CUCU’s land.”
    THE GAME IS OVER.

  3. Greg says:

    >> Would be consols — perpetual bonds that ***never pay the principal back***

    At least that part is honest!

  4. RichL says:

    If he was really in the government’s corner he’d have them issue zero coupon perpetuities!

  5. Brent Buckner says:

    You write about trills that they:
    do not consider what it will do to the government in future years

    I think that consideration is there. If nominal GDP grows more slowly then the effective rate of interest is lower.

  6. Brent Buckner says:

    David, thank you for your reply.

    I understand that trills can’t be inflated away. I’m not saying that government would choose deflation as a policy goal. I am saying that in a case of unexpected deflation, trills would turn out to be less burdensome than was previously expected.

  7. thruth says:

    “Here’s the question: what do you think nominal GDP growth will be on average forever? If it is above 4.4%, one should be willing to pay an infinite amount to buy it. At lower rates of nominal GDP growth, the security will have a finite value that declines rapidly with lower nominal GDP growth.”

    ahem… risk premium? but yes, why shouldn’t they fluctuate in value since they are effectively a claim on bond, stock and real property markets.

    “They suck a lot of money in, and do not consider what it will do to the government in future years. I can say with confidence that a large issuance of trills would lead to the demise of the US Government. There is no way that the government could keep up with the payments, because most finance today relies on the idea that the economy can grow out of the debt burden. With trills, that is not possible.”

    as the same logic applies, I guess developing nations should stop issuing US dollar denominated debt too?

    I would like to think that both the buyers and sellers of such securities wouldn’t take the implications lightly. In any case, provided the govt does not issue vast sums, I can’t see the harm. Moreover, their pricing might yield useful signals to policy makers (especially the Fed)

  8. dave says:

    Why not just give
    Them an expiration
    Date? A bond directly linked to
    GDP is an interesting idea, but why make it last
    Forever?

Disclaimer


David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures.


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