Archive for January 9th, 2010

Don’t Strategically Default on your Mortgage

Saturday, January 9th, 2010

I like Roger Lowenstein; he is a bright guy.  I have reviewed several of his books, and would recommend to readers that they are worth buying.

But, I disagree with Lowenstein in some ways regarding defaulting on home mortgages.  I want to give some credit to my wife here.  My dear wife of 23 years, who I thought about many times while we were attending a wedding today (I could not sit with her because I was leading the singing), and who does not have an economic bone in her body, helped me think about the issues around defaulting on home mortgages.

There is a false notion that because firms default when it is in their economic interest to do so, so should homeowners whose mortgages are greater than the underlying house value.

First, firms can’t so easily enter Chapter 11.  How does Chapter 11 work for firms?  Two things must be true — a firm must not be able to raise cash to make a debt payment, and the assets of the firm are worth less than the liabilities.  If a firm can’t pass both tests, the bankruptcy court should refuse the filing, forcing the firm to sell assets to make a payment.

To use this analogy for defaulting on a home mortgage, it is one thing to take out a mortgage in buying a home, having reasonable margins for error, and then disaster hits, and the mortgage payment can’t be made.  It is quite another thing to have the capacity to make the mortgage payment, and default.  Corporations usually can’t get away with that (please ignore KMart); if they can make payments on the debt, they can’t go into Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

Bankruptcy primarily exists as a protection for borrowers who have suffered loss, leading to inability to pay their debts.  It does not exist to allow people with the capacity to pay to slip out of contracts, simply because the creditor won’t go after them because it is not worth their effort, or, they don’t want the negative PR.

Would you borrow from a relative and default, because you know they would never sue you?  Would that be ethical?  Taking advantage of the extreme kindness of others may be legal, but it is never ethical.

If you can pay, you should pay.  That the mortgage lender will not enforce their rights does not mean that the one who can pay but defaults is ethical.

Imagine a society where any can default at their pleasure.  My, but the interest rates should get high to reflect the possibility of loss from borrowers that could pay but won’t.

If you can keep your word, and make your payments, do so.  You entered into the mortgage agreement with no assurance of where housing prices would go.  That they turned against you is no reason to default; but if your ability to pay has declined, well, that is another thing — default if you must.

Book Review: Why are we so Clueless about the Stock Market?

Saturday, January 9th, 2010

This is a basic book.  If you are trying to introduce someone to investing, this would have value.  It uses concepts familiar to every man to explain that there is nothing amazing about good investing — it is just common sense sharply applied.  In terms of deep insight, I don’t see a lot of it, but that is not what the book is aimed at.  The book is for new investors looking to understand the markets.

There is much that is good here, but nothing deep.  If you want to buy the book, you can buy it here: Why Are We So Clueless about the Stock Market? Learn how to invest your money, how to pick stocks, and how to make money in the stock market.

Full disclosure: Anyone who enters Amazon through my site and buys something sends me a commision.

Disclaimer


David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures.


Also, though David runs Aleph Investments, LLC, this blog is not a part of that business. This blog exists to educate investors, and give something back. It is not intended as advertisement for Aleph Investments; David is not soliciting business through it. When David, or a client of David's has an interest in a security mentioned, full disclosure will be given, as has been past practice for all that David does on the web. Disclosure is the breakfast of champions.


Additionally, David may occasionally write about accounting, actuarial, insurance, and tax topics, but nothing written here, at RealMoney, or anywhere else is meant to be formal "advice" in those areas. Consult a reputable professional in those areas to get personal, tailored advice that meets the specialized needs that David can have no knowledge of.

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