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> <channel><title>Comments on: Too Much Leverage Precedes Many Disasters</title> <atom:link href="http://alephblog.com/2010/01/23/too-much-leverage-precedes-many-disasters/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" /><link>http://alephblog.com/2010/01/23/too-much-leverage-precedes-many-disasters/</link> <description>Helping Institutions and Ordinary People Invest Better by Focusing on Risk Control</description> <lastBuildDate>Sun, 27 May 2012 06:47:45 +0000</lastBuildDate> <sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod> <sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency> <generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1</generator> <item><title>By: Albert</title><link>http://alephblog.com/2010/01/23/too-much-leverage-precedes-many-disasters/comment-page-1/#comment-24284</link> <dc:creator>Albert</dc:creator> <pubDate>Mon, 25 Jan 2010 14:24:59 +0000</pubDate> <guid
isPermaLink="false">http://alephblog.com/?p=2306#comment-24284</guid> <description>David, as always, thanks for your posts.  I agree with many of the points you made, as well as many of the points in the comments section.
But I do think prop trading did play a role in the crisis.  Morgan Stanley took a $7 billion loss on a proprietary position in 4Q07 (dwarfing the nearly $1 billion it lost on its investments in Crescent real estate).  While you can argue that this was a result of the crisis, rather than the cause, losing $7 billion certainly didn&#039;t help!
Additionally, when markets tanked following Lehman&#039;s bankruptcy, MS counterparties had to wonder whether MS might be on the wrong end of another trading disaster, which was a plausible possibility.  That only increased the fear that nearly brought the firm down, which eventually led to their bank charter and their current regulatory predicament.
Thanks again for your post, and hope all is well.</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>David, as always, thanks for your posts.  I agree with many of the points you made, as well as many of the points in the comments section.</p><p>But I do think prop trading did play a role in the crisis.  Morgan Stanley took a $7 billion loss on a proprietary position in 4Q07 (dwarfing the nearly $1 billion it lost on its investments in Crescent real estate).  While you can argue that this was a result of the crisis, rather than the cause, losing $7 billion certainly didn&#8217;t help!</p><p>Additionally, when markets tanked following Lehman&#8217;s bankruptcy, MS counterparties had to wonder whether MS might be on the wrong end of another trading disaster, which was a plausible possibility.  That only increased the fear that nearly brought the firm down, which eventually led to their bank charter and their current regulatory predicament.</p><p>Thanks again for your post, and hope all is well.</p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item><title>By: dlr</title><link>http://alephblog.com/2010/01/23/too-much-leverage-precedes-many-disasters/comment-page-1/#comment-24280</link> <dc:creator>dlr</dc:creator> <pubDate>Sun, 24 Jan 2010 23:05:07 +0000</pubDate> <guid
isPermaLink="false">http://alephblog.com/?p=2306#comment-24280</guid> <description>Although it wouldn&#039;t be accurate to say that proprietary trading doesn&#039;t SOMETIMES contribute to banking crises.   See the debacle in Japan 20 years ago.   At least part of that was caused by allowing banks to hold massive amounts of (highly overvalued) stock as part of their &quot;capital&quot;.   And a little closer to home - how about the Savings and Loan debacle.  Some of the worst excessives of that were surely caused by allowing S&amp;L&#039;s to own junk bonds.
If you ask me, anything, any politician does, ever, for any reason, to rein in the freedom of the big banks is something to celebrate.   A bank that has deposits backstopped by the US Taxpayer SHOULD be hobbled as much as we can conveniently arrange - they are playing with other people&#039;s money.   In my opinion they should not only not be able to do prop. trading, they shouldn&#039;t be allowed to make markets, or buy cds to offset their risk, or buy stocks, ever, or bonds either, except for Treasury Bonds, and definitely they shouldn&#039;t be able to buy securitized loans, or do underwriting.  In fact, about the only thing that they should be allowed to do is clear checks and make loans, and only then with a very considerable cushion of capital - like 20 or 30 percent.
Wall Street banks think that is too onerous?  Ah, how sad.   Let them go start their own private banks, without backstops from the US Taxpayer.   I don&#039;t care what you do as long as I don&#039;t have to bail you out when you screw up, or when you figure out a way to loot your company and leave the taxpayers holding the bag.</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Although it wouldn&#8217;t be accurate to say that proprietary trading doesn&#8217;t SOMETIMES contribute to banking crises.   See the debacle in Japan 20 years ago.   At least part of that was caused by allowing banks to hold massive amounts of (highly overvalued) stock as part of their &#8220;capital&#8221;.   And a little closer to home &#8211; how about the Savings and Loan debacle.  Some of the worst excessives of that were surely caused by allowing S&amp;L&#8217;s to own junk bonds.</p><p>If you ask me, anything, any politician does, ever, for any reason, to rein in the freedom of the big banks is something to celebrate.   A bank that has deposits backstopped by the US Taxpayer SHOULD be hobbled as much as we can conveniently arrange &#8211; they are playing with other people&#8217;s money.   In my opinion they should not only not be able to do prop. trading, they shouldn&#8217;t be allowed to make markets, or buy cds to offset their risk, or buy stocks, ever, or bonds either, except for Treasury Bonds, and definitely they shouldn&#8217;t be able to buy securitized loans, or do underwriting.  In fact, about the only thing that they should be allowed to do is clear checks and make loans, and only then with a very considerable cushion of capital &#8211; like 20 or 30 percent.</p><p>Wall Street banks think that is too onerous?  Ah, how sad.   Let them go start their own private banks, without backstops from the US Taxpayer.   I don&#8217;t care what you do as long as I don&#8217;t have to bail you out when you screw up, or when you figure out a way to loot your company and leave the taxpayers holding the bag.</p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item><title>By: dlr</title><link>http://alephblog.com/2010/01/23/too-much-leverage-precedes-many-disasters/comment-page-1/#comment-24278</link> <dc:creator>dlr</dc:creator> <pubDate>Sun, 24 Jan 2010 22:28:09 +0000</pubDate> <guid
isPermaLink="false">http://alephblog.com/?p=2306#comment-24278</guid> <description>Well, he&#039;s not reacting to the fact that it wasn&#039;t proprietary trading that got them in trouble THIS TIME.  All those problems happened way back in 2008.  He doesn&#039;t care about what caused the banking crisis, and doesn&#039;t have any plans to address it.  If he did, he would have done something about it a YEAR AGO, when he came into office.
No, what he is responding to, right here, right now, is the fact that it is pissing off middle america that the banks are taking TAXPAYER BACKSTOPPED MONEY and GAMBLING WITH IT ON THE STOCK MARKET instead of making LOANS.
Just like it is pissing off middle america that bank executives are paying themselves huge bonuses ditto, ditto, ditto.
And, since the defeat in Mass. he has decided to try to mend his fences a little bit with his aggrievied constituency.   Plus (my guess) he is hoping that the Republicans in Congress will defend the Wall Street Banks.  Whoo hoo, wouldn&#039;t that be sweet.</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, he&#8217;s not reacting to the fact that it wasn&#8217;t proprietary trading that got them in trouble THIS TIME.  All those problems happened way back in 2008.  He doesn&#8217;t care about what caused the banking crisis, and doesn&#8217;t have any plans to address it.  If he did, he would have done something about it a YEAR AGO, when he came into office.</p><p>No, what he is responding to, right here, right now, is the fact that it is pissing off middle america that the banks are taking TAXPAYER BACKSTOPPED MONEY and GAMBLING WITH IT ON THE STOCK MARKET instead of making LOANS.</p><p>Just like it is pissing off middle america that bank executives are paying themselves huge bonuses ditto, ditto, ditto.</p><p>And, since the defeat in Mass. he has decided to try to mend his fences a little bit with his aggrievied constituency.   Plus (my guess) he is hoping that the Republicans in Congress will defend the Wall Street Banks.  Whoo hoo, wouldn&#8217;t that be sweet.</p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item><title>By: Economics of Contempt</title><link>http://alephblog.com/2010/01/23/too-much-leverage-precedes-many-disasters/comment-page-1/#comment-24275</link> <dc:creator>Economics of Contempt</dc:creator> <pubDate>Sun, 24 Jan 2010 21:19:51 +0000</pubDate> <guid
isPermaLink="false">http://alephblog.com/?p=2306#comment-24275</guid> <description>&lt;i&gt;&quot;The high leverage particularly applies to the investment banks, which asked for a change from the SEC and got it in 2004.  The only bank to not lever up was Goldman; Morgan Stanley did it only a little bit.  Guess who survived?&quot;&lt;/i&gt;
Gotta question your numbers there (and I&#039;m as big a Goldman defender as anyone). Goldman definitely levered up -- from 21:1 in 2004 to 26:1 in 2007. And Morgan Stanley levered up more than a little bit -- from 26:1 in 2004 to a whopping &lt;i&gt;33:1&lt;/i&gt; in 2007.
Now, it&#039;s true that Goldman levered up &lt;i&gt;less&lt;/i&gt; than Lehman, Bear, and Merrill, but they definitely levered up. And Morgan Stanley was right in there with Lehman, Bear, and Merrill as well.
Otherwise, though, I largely agree with all of your points.</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>&#8220;The high leverage particularly applies to the investment banks, which asked for a change from the SEC and got it in 2004.  The only bank to not lever up was Goldman; Morgan Stanley did it only a little bit.  Guess who survived?&#8221;</i></p><p>Gotta question your numbers there (and I&#8217;m as big a Goldman defender as anyone). Goldman definitely levered up &#8212; from 21:1 in 2004 to 26:1 in 2007. And Morgan Stanley levered up more than a little bit &#8212; from 26:1 in 2004 to a whopping <i>33:1</i> in 2007.</p><p>Now, it&#8217;s true that Goldman levered up <i>less</i> than Lehman, Bear, and Merrill, but they definitely levered up. And Morgan Stanley was right in there with Lehman, Bear, and Merrill as well.</p><p>Otherwise, though, I largely agree with all of your points.</p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item><title>By: Terry</title><link>http://alephblog.com/2010/01/23/too-much-leverage-precedes-many-disasters/comment-page-1/#comment-24273</link> <dc:creator>Terry</dc:creator> <pubDate>Sun, 24 Jan 2010 16:46:48 +0000</pubDate> <guid
isPermaLink="false">http://alephblog.com/?p=2306#comment-24273</guid> <description>I&#039;m with you right up to &quot;...what makes economic sense will prevail...&quot;  Hasn&#039;t happened yet in the history of the republic and I don&#039;t expect it to happen in the foreseeable future.  (Could argue that the New Deal policies were economically sensible at the time, I suppose.) Rightly or wrongly, the political view (right or left depending on time and circumstance) will prevail.</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m with you right up to &#8220;&#8230;what makes economic sense will prevail&#8230;&#8221;  Hasn&#8217;t happened yet in the history of the republic and I don&#8217;t expect it to happen in the foreseeable future.  (Could argue that the New Deal policies were economically sensible at the time, I suppose.) Rightly or wrongly, the political view (right or left depending on time and circumstance) will prevail.</p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item><title>By: Donald Last</title><link>http://alephblog.com/2010/01/23/too-much-leverage-precedes-many-disasters/comment-page-1/#comment-24270</link> <dc:creator>Donald Last</dc:creator> <pubDate>Sun, 24 Jan 2010 13:12:42 +0000</pubDate> <guid
isPermaLink="false">http://alephblog.com/?p=2306#comment-24270</guid> <description>You do talk so much commonsense.   Send this to every Congressman.
You also write plainly.  One gets so tired of the tortured, jargonized prose deployed by economists in academia and the banks.   Wrapping up simple notions in attentuated language to try to make it sound more profound than it really is.</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You do talk so much commonsense.   Send this to every Congressman.</p><p>You also write plainly.  One gets so tired of the tortured, jargonized prose deployed by economists in academia and the banks.   Wrapping up simple notions in attentuated language to try to make it sound more profound than it really is.</p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> </channel> </rss>
