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On Credit & Equity

Thursday, March 18th, 2010

Jake at Econompic Data had a good post on credit and equity.  (He runs a good site generally.)  They are correlated, but not all of the time.  As I commented:

When yields are low, equities thrive because financing costs are low.

When the defaults come, future equity returns are low, because financing rates rise, killing some and wounding others.

When yield spreads are very high, future equity returns are high, because returns come as spreads tighten.

You can see more on pages 14-22 of this presentation that I gave:

http://alephblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/SEAC_Presentation.pdf

Though I promised some posts after my presentation to the Southeastern Actuaries Conference, I never followed up.  Here is part of my belated follow-up.

As I noted in my presentation:

  • Credit and equity returns are closely correlated in bear markets.
  • Illiquidity events become more common when equity prices are falling, and credit spreads rising.
  • Complexity and structure raise illiquidity during crises.
  • Bonds with negative credit optionality underperform in a crisis.

I would add that credit and equity returns are closely correlated coming out of a crisis as well.  But here are some examples, starting with 2007-2009

Picture1

and then 1999-2004:

Picture2

and then 1989-1993:

Picture3

and then 1980-1983:

Picture4

and then 1969-1975:

Picture5

Finally, 1927-1944:

Picture6

What I concluded:

  • Credit booms are different – equities rise, while credit spreads stay low and stable.
  • There are sometimes exceptions when selloffs are sharp, like 1987 or 1998.
  • Ignore what the government says. It is impossible to eliminate the boom-bust cycle. The best a good businessman can do is try to understand where he is in the cycle, and be prepared.
  • Building liquidity looks dumb after credit spreads have been tight for a few years, but can save a lot of performance. The same is true of an “up in credit trade.”
  • During the bust phase, illiquid companies and investments get whacked. It is often good to “leg into” such investments during the panic. This is when credit analysis really pays off, because during the panic, everything gets hit.
  • Equity risk shows up in insurance lines of business like Surety, D&O, E&O, Mortgage, Financial, etc.
  • If you have equity risk in your liabilities, reduce credit risk in your assets. Same is true if you need to regularly buy equity options. When implied option volatility rises, credit spreads tend to rise as well.

Notes:

There are few corporate yield series that date prior to 1990.  Until computers became powerful enough, bonds traded on a dollar price basis, and yields, much less spreads, were not comprehensively recorded.  One of the few corporate yield series with a long history is Moody’s Corporate Bond Indexes, which goes back to 1919.  There are some oddities to that index, but there aren’t many choices if you go back a long way.  It composed of bonds in a given ratings category, 20-30 years long, unweighted average on yields.  The averages tend to yield more than most bond managers that I have talked with think they can get.

My credit spread variable was the yield on the Baa series less that on the Aaa series.  I think it is a really good proxy for credit conditions and overall market volatility.

Anyway, this was part of a talk that I gave to the Southeastern Actuaries Conference.  I’ll do a few more posts from that, but if you want to look at the report, you can find it here.

Disclaimer


David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures.


Also, though David runs Aleph Investments, LLC, this blog is not a part of that business. This blog exists to educate investors, and give something back. It is not intended as advertisement for Aleph Investments; David is not soliciting business through it. When David, or a client of David's has an interest in a security mentioned, full disclosure will be given, as has been past practice for all that David does on the web. Disclosure is the breakfast of champions.


Additionally, David may occasionally write about accounting, actuarial, insurance, and tax topics, but nothing written here, at RealMoney, or anywhere else is meant to be formal "advice" in those areas. Consult a reputable professional in those areas to get personal, tailored advice that meets the specialized needs that David can have no knowledge of.

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