Post 1200

Every hundred posts, I take a step back and try to consider where we have been.  Perhaps because it is recent, I will examine my move to use Twitter.  I have been on Twitter for 3 weeks, and I have 350+ followers.  If you want to follow me on Twitter, you can do so here.  Most of what I do on Twitter is point people to articles I think are important in somewhat near real-time.

Should I persist in doing Twitter, I will not do huge posts of links on a given topic.  But, if you ask me, I will gather up my Tweets, and post them once a week here.  Let me know in the comments.

It was with some reservations that I decided to use Twitter.  Ordinarily, I write longer posts, and 140 characters does not allow much to be said.  But there is the challenge.  Can I boil down something to its essence?  Make it catchy so that others retweet it?  Summarize it well so that someone can pick up the argument in a few seconds?  That is what I have been aiming for.

I will add one plug.  I am glad that before I started tweeting that I installed TweetDeck.  I have used it from the beginning, and it has made using Twitter far more productive than otherwise.

Now, as for the last four months, the market has been more bullish than I have been.  I have done better than the market, but not by much.  My risk posture is a lot lower than the market in aggregate, and my sensitivity to economic cyclicality is lower than normal.  It is a tough environment, and most people that I respect are reducing risk exposure.  I have done the same, but less so.

It is a puzzling time, but I am still reducing risk exposure, and will do yet more in April.  There is only so far that profit margins can expand.  I think that expectations of profit margins are near their peak.  So are stocks, most likely.

I hope all of you have been enjoying the “Rules” series.  There are maybe 30 more posts to go there.

I appreciate the comments you make and the e-mails that you send, but I don’t have time anymore to answer every email and comment.  My sad apologies; I wish I could do more with my time.

And now, thanks to those who read me, listed in order of the number of visitors (credit Quancast):

  • Merrill Lynch and Company (US)
  • Citicorp Global Information Ne…
  • UBS AG (US)
  • JPMorgan Chase & Co. (US)
  • Verizon Business (US)
  • US Department of the Treasury …
  • Morgan Stanley Group (US)
  • Fordham University (US)
  • The Drexel University Campus (…
  • Johns Hopkins University Appli…
  • Bloomberg Financial Market (US…
  • New York University (US)
  • Toronto Dominion Bank (CA)
  • Royal Bank of Canada (CA)
  • Harvard University (US)
  • Dow Jones-Telerate (US)
  • Colonial First State Investmen…
  • Raymond James Financial (US)
  • Mellon Bank (US)
  • Fidelity Investments (US)
  • Google (US)
  • Verizon Business (CA)
  • The Vanguard Group (US)
  • Merrill Lynch and Company (GB)
  • Dean Witter Financial Services…
  • Bank of America (US)
  • American International Group D…
  • Northrop Grumman Corp. (US)
  • Arris Group (US)
  • MAN Financial (US)
  • HSBC Bank plc, UK (GB)
  • GNA Corporation (US)
  • Daniel J Edelman Limited (GB)
  • Credit Suisse Group / CANA (US…
  • Credit Suisse Group / CANA (SG…
  • Community Health Care of the C…
  • Barclays Capital (GB)
  • Stanford University (US)
  • Warszawa (PL)
  • United States Senate (US)
  • UBS (CH)
  • Royal Bank of Canada (US)
  • PNC Bank (US)
  • OCLC Online Computer Library C…
  • Morgan Stanley Group (GB)
  • Michigan State Government (US)
  • Macmillan/McGraw-Hill School P…
  • International Fund Services (I…
  • GuavaTech DUPLICATE (US)
  • Georgetown University (US)
  • FT Interactive Data (GB)
  • City of Oakland (US)
  • Citadel Investment Group, L.L….
  • BT Corporate (GB)
  • AllianceBernstein L.P. (US)
  • Choice One Communications (US)
  • UBS (GB)
  • RTM – Rede de Telecomunicações…
  • Payless ShoeSource (US)
  • Pathway Communications (CA)
  • Oxford University (GB)
  • NSW Premiers Dept (AU)
  • Nesbitt Burns (CA)
  • MessageLabs Limited (GB)
  • LloydsTSB CMF (GB)
  • Indiana State Library (US)
  • H&R Block (US)
  • Fiberpipe (US)
  • Federal Home Loan Mortgage Cor…
  • Federal Deposit Insurance Corp…
  • Baruch College (US)
  • Barclays Global Investors UK (…
  • Litton Computer Services (US)
  • National University of Singapo…
  • KDDI Europe Ltd (GB)
  • CERFnet customer – Qualcomm (U…
  • Vermont Telephone Company (US)
  • University of Tulsa (US)
  • Susquehanna Investment Group (…
  • SunTrust Service Corporation (…
  • Scotia McLeod (CA)
  • Routed Connection (GB)
  • Qwest Corporation (US)
  • Petercam S.A. (BE)
  • PCD Network Solutions (US)
  • Northwest Nexus (US)
  • Nildram (GB)
  • Morningstar (US)
  • Moody’s Investors Service (US)
  • Macquarie Bank (AU)
  • LloydsTSB Bank Plc (GB)
  • Ignite Technologies (US)
  • Henderson Global Investers (GB…
  • Gelber Group, LLC (US)
  • Dow Jones International (GB)
  • Credit Suisse Group / CANA (GB…
  • Beckman Instruments (US)
  • Banque Paribas (US)
  • Arcap (US)


That is quite a list of eminent firms/organizations.  I may not make the ten/twenty best lists, but I have a really good group of readers, and I appreciate the time that they spend on me.

To that end, I appreciate the following blogs who support me:

  • Abnormal Returns
  • FT Alphaville
  • Naked Capitalism
  • Alea
  • The Big Picture
  • Economics Roundtable
  • RealClearMarkets
  • And more

As one final note, in the interests of transparency, how much do I earn off my blog in a year?  ~$2000.  Most of that comes through commissions from Amazon.  Book reviews are my way of providing some payback for the time that I spend writing.  My best estimate says that I earn considerably less than minimum wage, so let any who think that I am in it for money consider otherwise.  I write what I write because I believe it, and because I think it is important.

Blessings on you, my readers, so I ask God.  May the remainder of 2010 be so good to us as the first quarter.

Humbly Yours,



  • Congratulations on your success, David, and your widening circle of influence.

    Amazon’s affiliate program is a little skimpy. Some others are more generous.

  • hotairmail says:

    Your efforts are greatly appreciated and are noted.

    Just as an aside, on your last blog about ‘if actuaries ruled the world’, I hate to inform you that one of the two big blow-ups in the UK, Halifax the UK mortgage market leader, was set on its path to self-destruction by one of the most highly reputed CEO actuaries…James Crosby (who then went on to oversee the mess as Deputy Chief in the FSA!).

  • Rich says:

    Good point, hotairmail. Perhaps engineers should rule the world instead. :-)

    David, thanks for all you have written. I’ll cast my vote for a weekly post here of your article links. One: I don’t use Twitter, and two: since your posts are usually longer and thought-provoking, I read them when I can think and don’t need updates in real-time.

    Just my $0.02.

  • Mr. C says:

    I don’t tweet, so please have a weekly post here of your article links.

  • Travis says:

    David – I read a lot of blogs. I find your blog to be one of the most thoughtful and helpful on the web. Please keep up the great work. I’m deeply thankful for your willingness to devote time and thought to topics very few bloggers cover in such detail. Simply put, your blog makes me a better investment manager and I thank you for this. Thanks!!!

    Lastly, I don’t know many people that use Twitter. It seems to me it will be one of the losers in the evolution of web content. I could easily be wrong (not the first time and certainly not the last). A weekly synopsis of your Twitter content posted to Aleph Blog would be great.

    Thanks, again.

  • Saloner says:

    Thank you for the education you generously provide David.
    I look forward to the rest of the “Rules” series. Could we have a tab that links exclusively to that collection too please?

    May I thank you again and wish you, and your family, the very best?

  • matt says:

    I also feel like risk should be throttled back, but doing so early in an election year doesn’t seem like a good idea. The Congress is throwing money at all of the problems and high unemployment seems to be keeping inflation in check. 2008 is a counter-argument, but the banks have been completely stabilized by the government. I have a suspicion that the mass transfer of wealth from the people to the corporations will make equity valuations relatively justified (especially compared to bonds at these spreads).

  • sg says:

    I don’t tweet, so please have a weekly post here of your article links.

  • Anal_yst says:

    I’m glad you’ve finally joined us on Twitter! I think for those who aren’t/don’t yet follow you, though, the weekly summary of links, etc is a good idea.

  • Josh Stern says:

    I’m pretty ignorant about twitter, but doesn’t mirror most tweet channels by default? Here is the alephblog one: