This idea is applicable to many fields, but in the era of the internet, this is a cheap idea that should gain broad acceptance.  Academics would benefit from the creation of a journal of failed research.  Rather, many journals of failed research, Chemistry, Economics, Biology, Sociology, Finance, etc.  There should be buoys in the harbor saying this way does not work; go another way.  There would be three salutary effects:

1) Researchers would learn of ideas that don’t work and would avoid them.

2) Researchers would conclude that your process does not work, but they have a better way to proceed and act on it.

3) Academics would get credit for doing honest research, and not twisting research through falsifying data or tweaking formulas in order to get significant coefficients.

It is almost as valuable to know that something doesn’t work, than to know that is does work.  How much time could be saved, and new avenues acted on, through journals that record failed research.  Who knows, but that it might improve honesty among scientists, if they get credit for publishing failed research that is honest, versus falsifying data or engaging in a specification search in order to tweak coefficients to make them significant.

This would be a big improvement for every academic discipline worth writing about, where data and fair results matter.  Let it happen then.  I am willing to set up online journals for failed research.  Let the submissions begin.

It has been too long since I updated my portfolio, so here goes:

New Buys:

3/12/2010      Seneca Foods Corp Cl A

5/10/2010      PPL Corp

5/10/2010      Sempra Energy

5/10/2010      Constellation Energy

New Sales:

5/10/2010      Magna Intl Inc Cl A

5/10/2010      Canadian National

Stocks removed for tax purposes:

10/15/2009      SABESP

1/5/2010          SABESP

5/10/2010        Shoe Carnival Inc

Rebalancing Buys:

11/4/2009        Valero Energy Corp

12/29/2009      Ensco International Inc

1/25/2010        Nam Tai Electronics

2/8/2010          SABESP

2/10/2010        National Western Life Ins

5/4/2010          Total ADR

5/4/2010          Archer Daniels Midland

5/6/2010          Noble Corporation

Rebalancing Sales:

10/19/2009      Conoco Phillips

10/22/2009      Noble Corporation

10/23/2009      Ensco International Inc

11/5/2009        Dorel Inds Inc Cl B

1/4/2010          National Presto Inds Inc

1/5/2010          Magna Intl Inc Cl A

1/8/2010          Alliant Energy Corp

1/8/2010          Canadian National

3/1/2010          Safety Ins Group Inc

3/12/2010        Shoe Carnival Inc

4/13/2010        Oracle Corporation

4/13/2010        Safeway Inc

4/13/2010        Northrop Grumman Corp

4/14/2010        Shoe Carnival Inc

4/14/2010        SABESP

4/14/2010        Ensco International Inc

5/3/2010          Dorel Inds Inc Cl B

5/6/2010          Magna Intl Inc Cl A

Thoughts

1)  I try not to trade too much.  For those that are new to my writings, rebalancing buys and sells are meant to bring the positions back to target weight after they have moved 20% away from the target weight.  As it is, for seven months, I have not made a lot of trades.

2) I tried to take some cyclicality off of the table on 5/10.  I end up with more utility exposure, but less of industrials and retail.  Having the portfolio 20% or so in utilities is quite a statement.  Utilities are designed for volatile conditions, when the degree of inflation is uncertain, because utilities have inflation passthrough on rates, while they are defensive in deflation.

3) Assurant and National Western are double weights.  The rest of the portfolio is equal-weighted aside from that.  Note that National Western is quite illiquid.  Do not place market orders to buy or sell.

4) In terms of balance sheets, and industry factors, this is my most conservative portfolio ever.

5) I still don’t trust the financial sector aside from insurers here.

6) I had some runners-up in my analyses: EIX DPL VVC

7 ) I think my portfolio is cheaper and more defensive now.

8 ) I have roughly 20% in cash, which is my limit for bearishness.

Full disclosure (here is the whole portfolio): ADM AIZ ALL CB CEG COP CSC CVX D DIIB ESV GPC IBA LNT NE NOC NPK NTE NWLI ORCL PEP PPL PRE RGA SAFT SBS SCG SENEA SRE SWY TOT VLO