Recent Portfolio Actions

It has been too long since I updated my portfolio, so here goes:

New Buys:

3/12/2010      Seneca Foods Corp Cl A

5/10/2010      PPL Corp

5/10/2010      Sempra Energy

5/10/2010      Constellation Energy

New Sales:

5/10/2010      Magna Intl Inc Cl A

5/10/2010      Canadian National

Stocks removed for tax purposes:

10/15/2009      SABESP

1/5/2010          SABESP

5/10/2010        Shoe Carnival Inc

Rebalancing Buys:

11/4/2009        Valero Energy Corp

12/29/2009      Ensco International Inc

1/25/2010        Nam Tai Electronics

2/8/2010          SABESP

2/10/2010        National Western Life Ins

5/4/2010          Total ADR

5/4/2010          Archer Daniels Midland

5/6/2010          Noble Corporation

Rebalancing Sales:

10/19/2009      Conoco Phillips

10/22/2009      Noble Corporation

10/23/2009      Ensco International Inc

11/5/2009        Dorel Inds Inc Cl B

1/4/2010          National Presto Inds Inc

1/5/2010          Magna Intl Inc Cl A

1/8/2010          Alliant Energy Corp

1/8/2010          Canadian National

3/1/2010          Safety Ins Group Inc

3/12/2010        Shoe Carnival Inc

4/13/2010        Oracle Corporation

4/13/2010        Safeway Inc

4/13/2010        Northrop Grumman Corp

4/14/2010        Shoe Carnival Inc

4/14/2010        SABESP

4/14/2010        Ensco International Inc

5/3/2010          Dorel Inds Inc Cl B

5/6/2010          Magna Intl Inc Cl A

Thoughts

1)  I try not to trade too much.  For those that are new to my writings, rebalancing buys and sells are meant to bring the positions back to target weight after they have moved 20% away from the target weight.  As it is, for seven months, I have not made a lot of trades.

2) I tried to take some cyclicality off of the table on 5/10.  I end up with more utility exposure, but less of industrials and retail.  Having the portfolio 20% or so in utilities is quite a statement.  Utilities are designed for volatile conditions, when the degree of inflation is uncertain, because utilities have inflation passthrough on rates, while they are defensive in deflation.

3) Assurant and National Western are double weights.  The rest of the portfolio is equal-weighted aside from that.  Note that National Western is quite illiquid.  Do not place market orders to buy or sell.

4) In terms of balance sheets, and industry factors, this is my most conservative portfolio ever.

5) I still don’t trust the financial sector aside from insurers here.

6) I had some runners-up in my analyses: EIX DPL VVC

7 ) I think my portfolio is cheaper and more defensive now.

8 ) I have roughly 20% in cash, which is my limit for bearishness.

Full disclosure (here is the whole portfolio): ADM AIZ ALL CB CEG COP CSC CVX D DIIB ESV GPC IBA LNT NE NOC NPK NTE NWLI ORCL PEP PPL PRE RGA SAFT SBS SCG SENEA SRE SWY TOT VLO

3/12/2010Seneca Foods Corp Cl A
5/10/2010PPL Corp
5/10/2010Sempra Energy
5/10/2010Constellation Energy





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6 Responses to Recent Portfolio Actions

  1. Nam Tai Electronics!!! what a blast from the past. i used to trade that stock when i was in college! thanks for the memories…

  2. Nate says:

    Thanks for the update, as a follow on, you mention you are 20% cash, do you also have a fixed income allocation or are you 80% stocks 20% cash?

  3. RichL says:

    For what little it’s worth, there has been a collapse in the forward electric power market, while coal prices have remained stable. Some dark spreads in PJM have gone negative. Many utilities have a merchant power -unregulated- component to their earnings, and they aren’t the safe alternatives they once were.

  4. brendo says:

    Thanks for the update David….

    I’m curious…NWLI has exposure to Haiti…Do you think that will be a factor much?

  5. NWLI has exposure everywhere — they sell policies outside the US to wealthy people in foreign countries that want to protect their net worth.

    I don’t know about Haiti, but I am not worried about it.

Disclaimer


David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures.


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Additionally, David may occasionally write about accounting, actuarial, insurance, and tax topics, but nothing written here, at RealMoney, or anywhere else is meant to be formal "advice" in those areas. Consult a reputable professional in those areas to get personal, tailored advice that meets the specialized needs that David can have no knowledge of.

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