There have been debates between those who argue for momentum and mean-reversion. I say, “Why Choose? You can benefit from both.” Stock performance tends to persist after 12 months of outperformance, and tends to mean-revert after 48 months of underperformance. Tonight’s screen reveals 33 stocks that were in the bottom quartile over the last 4 years, but in the top quartile over the last year, with market capitalization over $100 million.
A few of the larger stocks I look at here like Citigroup and AIG make me sick, but that is a part of the exercise. If you don’t get a “gag reflex” from some stocks as a value investor, you may not be taking enough risk. I am certainly not a fan of the financial guarantors, but they are here. They survived, at least for now.
I would would consider the following stocks to be a “disbelief” portfolio. High risk, high opportunity. There are few people that wake up in the morning and say, “This is the portfolio that I want to own.”
Too many financials. Too many overlevered, dodgy companies. But maybe they will do well over the next month. The probabilities favor it, but I will try to measure it over the next month. Portfolios that outperform rarely look normal.