Eddy Elfenbein wrote an interesting post on the market doubling from its bottom. But given all of the odd things going on in the markets, and one of my mottoes is “Weird begets weird,” I asked how unusual the fall was before the rise. Over the last 61 years, it is unprecedented. Here’s the table:
This table lists all of the major turning points as I see them. The summary statistics are these: bull markets last 3.5x as long as bear markets on average. Bear markets move at 1.9x the rate of bull markets. (double speed)
But now consider cumulative bear markets as I define them:
and the monthly losses versus the number of days for the loss.
The longer the losses go on, the less intense the losses are on an annualized basis. But the loss level is higher per unit time than for gains — the amount of time spent in gains is 3.5x that of the losses. Look at the cumulative gains:
Though the gains clump around doubling, there are two results in the triple to quadruple area — makes up for a lot of losses.
As one might expect, short rallies tend to be more intense than long rallies. Normal rallies since 1950 tend to double the index value. Abnormal falls cuts the index in half.
But for today that leaves us overextended. Yes, levels have rapidly doubled versus the low. That’s unusual; it undoes a harder than normal fall. But it would be unprecedented for the market to continue to advance at a 3% pace from here. That would be uncharted waters.
Consider trimming some of your hottest positions.