I ordinarily think of the world as messy, but it is unusual when the world validates my opinions. Civil war in Libya? Whouda thunk it?
But that is why prior preparation is valuable. Not that I have a anti-mess portfolio trading as an ETF. That’s not the way I think. Besides, it is very difficult to come up with negative plays of any significant size. And that is the nature of the world. With global trade so large, we are one big happy world. Wars anywhere tend to produce losses, and even if you own energy equities in size as I do, the losses are still significant.
This is yet another reason why I argue that it is important to invest with a provision for adverse deviation.You can’t tell what the global situation will kick up. So adjust your portfolios for flexibility, recognizing significant constraints, like energy and agriculture.