Day: June 15, 2011

Correction: How to Make More Returns on REITs

Correction: How to Make More Returns on REITs

I want to thank Geoffrey Ching for spotting an error in my post How to Make More Returns on REITs.? He even came up with what I did wrong; my signal was off by one month, producing returns way too good to be true.? So is the strategy wrong?

No.? It’s still a good strategy, just not astounding.? Here’s the double quintile for mortgage REITs:

And for equity REITs:

Here’s the return graph for equity REITs:

And that for mortgage REITs:

It feels intuitively right that Mortgage REITs don’t beat equity REITs, even with a better strategy for both.? The momentum strategy boosts? the returns on mortgage REITs from 5.1% to 11.1%.? For Equity REITs it moves from 12.0% to 14.0%.

I don’t wonder at this result.? Indeed, my shame is that I didn’t probe the last result more.? This is still useful for those who would pursue momentum, just not as useful as the first article.? And with that, I apologize to my readers for my prior error.? It is my policy to correct errors once I am convinced of them.

Plan Your Giving

Plan Your Giving

During hard economic times, fundraisers for charities get desperate.? Their endowment, if any, has shrunk, former less-well off patrons are less certain of their wage incomes, and are less prone to give; well-off patrons have fewer appreciated assets to offer.

I’ve been getting a spate of such calls recently.? I tell them that I plan my giving each year, and do not give to anyone else, no matter how worthy.? If they want to be considered for next year, send data to me via postal mail.

They never send it, at least not yet.? They only want the money now, not in one year.? If that ‘s the attitude, I don’t want to give.? For years I have wanted to give money to the local volunteer firefighters, and I talked to the chief, and said that I would give, but for my charitable giving trust, I needed their tax ID number.? He said that he would certainly get it to me.? He never did.

We all have different goals for charitable giving.? I’m not telling you where to give.? But analyze how much is spent on the mission in question versus supporting organizational infrastructure.? You want to see a high ratio there.

I only give to organizations where I know those that run the place; sometimes I help out.? But when I trust an organization entirely, my gift goes to? “where most needed.”? Why? Because someone has to support the internals of the organization in order for the mission aspects of the organization to operate.? If you know that the leaders are minimizing costs, acting honestly, and dead-set on pursuing the mission, give without restrictions.

And that brings up another aspect of my giving.? Give big to a few, and nothing to others.? The few that you support you should know well, to the degree that you might not only give money but time.? Charitable giving should be an expression of what you value most in society.? And by focusing, you will only support worthy causes, rather than “a little here and a little there,” where you lack of oversight allows charities to misspend money.

Final notes: by planning your giving, you eliminate those that make emotional appeals, and give rationally to what you would like to see prosper.? At worst, leave a small percentage of total giving for unexpected appeals. ? One value of this is that it starves the paid fundraisers that eat up a large part of the money given, who are not a charity at all, and charities should be discouraged from using them.

In the end this will reward the best charities, and starve the worst, which is a win-win.

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