Day: June 18, 2011

What is Liquidity (V)

What is Liquidity (V)

I am sure that I will write more on this topic, should I live so long.? My contentions are:

  • Securitization does not create liquidity, it only redirects it.
  • The Fed does not create liquidity, it only redirects it.
  • The Treasury does not create liquidity, it only redirects it.

When I wrote this, one reader asked me to expand on this.? Let’s start with the simple one, securitization.? Take a bunch of loans.? How easy is it to trade them?? Not that easy.? The buyer will want to re-underwrite the whole thing.? It will take time, and time is the opposite of liquidity.

But when you securitize, the last loss pieces are very liquid.? After all, they are AAA/Aaa.? But that comes at a cost.? The lower-rated pieces are less liquid for two reasons.? 1) the tranches are small. 2) in a bad situation, the principal could be wiped out in entire.

Securitization does not improve liquidity in aggregate, but it shifts liquidity to the AAA securities.

But what of the Fed and the Treasury?

They don’t create liquidity, as much as steal liquidity from savers.? The Fed creates liquidity through low interest rates, redirecting economic value from savers to debtors.? it is even more transparent in liquidity facilities they create and in quantitative easing, where they put the solvency of the central bank at risk.

Practically, the Treasury and Fed are a unit — think of the Fed as the commercial paper issuing arm of the treasury, though their commercial paper bears no interest, and is redeemable instantly.? We call them dollar bills.

The Fed and Treasury can redirect liquidity to their favorites, but it leaves the rest of the market starved.? The market will heal over time, but it is no credit to the Fed or Treasury.? The market finds ways to heal in spite of the actions of governments.

Wait to Buy Berkshire Hathaway

Wait to Buy Berkshire Hathaway

Catastrophes come in clumps.? Part of that is the correlatedness of weather.? When disasters are occurring, it may pay to wait until the season is near its end to buy reinsurers.? Who can tell what additional losses will arise in a year where losses are shaping up to be bad?

When there have been many tornadoes, and powerful ones, there are often many hurricanes, and powerful ones.? Wait to see if the hurricane season has some punch, and if it does, wait until October to buy BRK or other reinsurers.

If the season doesn’t have punch, start buying a little in late August or early September, and complete the job in October.

Don’t get me wrong, I like BRK, and would buy it at book value, or near it.? There are many other pure play reinsurers I might buy instead, if they survive the hurricane season.? They would have much more upside.? But in a really bad scenario, after the damage, BRK would be a low risk bet.? In 2005 as the last hurricanes were hitting, I urged my boss to buy BRK — they would be the last man standing in reinsurance.? And indeed BRK moved steadily up from there, without us.

BRK is much more than a reinsurer, but reinsurance will be the main focus for the next four months, so be aware…

Chasing Your Tail Risk

Chasing Your Tail Risk

There are many people out there following aggressive investment strategies, but they want to be covered if things go wrong.? Why not sell down the positions a little and buy some high quality short-to-intermediate-term bonds?

What!?! Give up the upside?!? They would rather buy some insurance — something that will pay off big if things go bad.

But think of the other side of the trade.? What does the one offering you insurance have to do?? It depends if they are scrupulous or unscrupulous.

Scrupulous: Set aside money or high quality assets in reserve, and treat the premiums as part of the the return on a high-yield money market fund, albeit with the possibility of a severe loss.

Unscrupulous: Don’t set anything aside.? Write as many contracts as you can.? It’s free money because there won’t be any crash.? And if there is a crash, declare bankruptcy.? After all, many others will be doing the same thing — you will have company.

Even if the contracts in question are exchange-traded, with margin posted, still the one writing the contracts and taking the risk should be ready to pay the whole wad in the disaster scenario.? Maybe the exchange will make up a few small defaults, but even exchanges can go broke if the situation is severe enough.

In order for tail risk to be mitigated fairly, someone must keep a supply of slack high quality assets.? Rather than the insurer doing that, why not have the investor do so?? The insurer brings along his own cost structure.? Why not self insure and bring down the risk level directly.? Someone has to hold high-quality assets to mitigate risk; let the investor be that party; embracing simplicity and enjoying reduced risk without the possibility of counterparty failure.

Quaint, huh?? And it doesn’t involve a single disgusting derivative, unlike those that would create a “Black Swan” ETF.

 

Theme: Overlay by Kaira