Apology on Irene

I was too bold in my prior statements on Hurricane Irene.  Though ordinarily forecast errors persist, as of early Thursday, the errors have straightened out and the path of the storm is clear.  That said, I think the risk of large insured losses are still not high.  The picture above is for 39+ mph winds over the next five days.  That won’t do much to most of the east coast.  Here, look at a graph of Hurricane force winds:

Not so much, huh?  There are a lot of insurers and reinsurers worth buying in this environment.