This era encompasses May through July 2009, as the market rallied. As usual, I sold too soon, and did not benefit from the continuing rally.
Shorting is a tactical discipline and not a structural discipline. Don’t try to short stock to zero, or near it.
Can you assure liquidity under all reasonable possible futures, and a few unreasonable futures?
Do you want to understand the situation fully, or do you want a soundbite answer to your question?
No tree grows to the sky. Nothing can grow at above average growth rates forever.
Humility is a core asset for investment managers.
Structured securities have a higher probability of “losing it all.” Also, the medium-sized insurer mentioned did not go insolvent, but did have to get a cash infusion from some other insurers that had joined with them into a greater entity.
Fresh produce is what it is, a perishable commodity, where quantity and quality are positively correlated, and pricing is negatively correlated. Financial assets don’t perish rapidly, quantity and quality are negatively correlated, and pricing is often positively correlated to the quantity of assets issued, since the demand for assets varies more than the supply. Whereas, with fresh produce, the supply varies more than the demand.
In short, why regulators have to have some spine, and just say no to fancy ideas. Implied in this is that state regulation of insurance, dumb as it is, is more effective than Federal regulation of banks.
Why simple explanations of market phenomena are frequently wrong.
“The concept that everything can be hedged assumes deep markets everywhere, which is not the case.”
An attempt to flesh out what a better concept on asset allocation would look like.
Why the Fed should be the systemic risk regulator.
Why stocks are slightly better than bonds in the long, long run.
If the independence of the Central Bank is never used to resist that desires of the politicians to goose, then that is not independence, but a sham.