Not so Good, Not so Bad

After reading an article at FT Alphaville on Gross Domestic Income, it reminded me of articles I have written on Gross Domestic Purchases, and so I decided to post again.

This time, I have quarterly data going back to 1947, and I post it all here:

QuarterReal GD ProductEffect of net importsReal GD PurchasesGD Product IPDEffect of net importsGD Purchases IPDNominal GD ProductEffect of net importsNominal GD Puchases
1947-II    (0.60)        0.71                 -       6.00      (1.45)             4.80         5.36      (0.75)            4.80
1947-III    (0.30)        0.17          (0.30)       6.90      (1.04)             6.30         6.58      (0.87)            5.98
1947-IV       6.20        4.33          11.20       8.40      (0.47)             8.60      15.12        3.84         20.76
1948-I       6.50        3.06            9.90       4.60      (0.06)             5.00      11.40        3.00         15.40
1948-II       7.50        3.07          11.00       4.50        0.04             4.90      12.34        3.11         16.44
1948-III       2.20        0.33            2.40       7.30        0.04             7.70         9.66        0.37         10.28
1948-IV       0.60        0.60            1.20     (0.10)        0.09                 -         0.50        0.69            1.20
1949-I    (5.50)      (2.91)          (8.40)     (1.10)        0.12          (1.10)      (6.54)      (2.79)         (9.41)
1949-II    (1.40)      (0.03)          (1.50)     (2.50)        0.35          (2.30)      (3.86)        0.32         (3.77)
1949-III       4.60        1.34            6.10     (3.30)        0.36          (3.10)         1.15        1.70            2.81
1949-IV    (3.70)        2.92          (0.80)     (0.10)        0.33             0.20      (3.80)        3.26         (0.60)
1950-I    17.20        0.58          18.10     (1.50)        0.63          (0.90)      15.44        1.21         17.04
1950-II    12.70        0.50          13.40       1.70        0.30             1.90      14.62        0.80         15.55
1950-III    16.60        2.83          20.10       8.40        0.35             8.80      26.39        3.19         30.67
1950-IV       7.20      (1.27)            5.90       7.00        0.47             7.40      14.70      (0.81)         13.74
1951-I       5.10      (0.82)            4.30     14.50        0.27          14.90      20.34      (0.55)         19.84
1951-II       6.80      (2.38)            4.30       2.30        0.18             2.60         9.26      (2.20)            7.01
1951-III       8.20      (2.00)            6.10       1.30      (0.18)             1.20         9.61      (2.18)            7.37
1951-IV       0.70      (0.15)            0.50       5.30      (0.38)             5.00         6.04      (0.53)            5.52
1952-I       4.10        0.78            4.90       0.40      (0.24)             0.30         4.52        0.54            5.21
1952-II       0.40        2.28            2.70       1.70      (0.27)             1.50         2.11        2.00            4.24
1952-III       2.70        2.47            5.30       3.00      (0.27)             2.80         5.78        2.19            8.25
1952-IV    13.90        1.31          15.40       1.40      (0.23)             1.10      15.49        1.08         16.67
1953-I       7.70      (0.25)            7.50       0.30      (0.13)             0.10         8.02      (0.38)            7.61
1953-II       3.10        0.72            3.80       0.90      (0.09)             0.80         4.03        0.63            4.63
1953-III    (2.40)      (0.69)          (3.10)       1.30      (0.03)             1.30      (1.13)      (0.72)         (1.84)
1953-IV    (6.20)      (0.25)          (6.50)       1.30        0.03             1.40      (4.98)      (0.22)         (5.19)
1954-I    (1.90)      (0.14)          (2.10)       1.70        0.16             2.00      (0.23)        0.02         (0.14)
1954-II       0.50      (0.69)          (0.30)       0.60        0.02             0.80         1.10      (0.67)            0.50
1954-III       4.60      (0.37)            4.10     (0.20)        0.04          (0.10)         4.39      (0.33)            4.00
1954-IV       8.30      (0.49)            7.60       0.50      (0.10)             0.50         8.84      (0.59)            8.14
1955-I    12.00        0.41          12.40       1.60      (0.39)             1.30      13.79        0.02         13.86
1955-II       6.80        1.42            8.20       2.20      (0.17)             2.10         9.15        1.25         10.47
1955-III       5.50      (0.71)            4.60       2.90      (0.15)             2.90         8.56      (0.86)            7.63
1955-IV       2.20        0.58            2.80       2.70      (0.14)             2.60         4.96        0.44            5.47
1956-I    (1.80)      (0.07)          (1.90)       4.00      (0.14)             3.90         2.13      (0.21)            1.93
1956-II       3.20      (1.28)            1.80       3.80      (0.11)             3.80         7.12      (1.39)            5.67
1956-III    (0.50)      (0.44)          (1.00)       4.60      (0.17)             4.50         4.08      (0.61)            3.46
1956-IV       6.70      (1.68)            4.90       2.40      (0.09)             2.40         9.26      (1.77)            7.42
1957-I       2.50        0.01            2.50       4.80      (0.26)             4.60         7.42      (0.25)            7.22
1957-II    (1.00)        0.82          (0.20)       2.80      (0.18)             2.60         1.77        0.64            2.39
1957-III       3.90        0.26            4.20       3.20      (0.19)             3.00         7.22        0.07            7.33
1957-IV    (4.10)        0.63          (3.50)       2.20      (0.15)             2.00      (1.99)        0.48         (1.57)
1958-I  (10.40)        2.11          (8.40)       3.40      (0.22)             3.20      (7.35)        1.89         (5.47)
1958-II       2.50        0.65            3.10       1.70      (0.13)             1.60         4.24        0.52            4.75
1958-III       9.70      (0.29)            9.40       1.00      (0.07)             1.00      10.80      (0.36)         10.49
1958-IV       9.70        1.00          10.70       0.40      (0.07)             0.40      10.14        0.93         11.14
1959-I       8.30      (0.55)            7.60       1.50        0.01             1.60         9.92      (0.54)            9.32
1959-II    10.50        0.32          10.80       0.90      (0.01)             1.00      11.49        0.31         11.91
1959-III    (0.50)      (0.35)          (0.90)       1.30      (0.10)             1.20         0.79      (0.45)            0.29
1959-IV       1.40        0.03            1.50       1.70      (0.02)             1.70         3.12        0.01            3.23
1960-I       9.30      (1.69)            7.60       0.80      (0.04)             0.80      10.17      (1.73)            8.46
1960-II    (1.90)      (1.17)          (3.00)       1.70        0.05             1.70      (0.23)      (1.12)         (1.35)
1960-III       0.70      (0.02)            0.70       1.80             -             1.80         2.51      (0.02)            2.51
1960-IV    (5.00)      (1.25)          (6.30)       1.70        0.02             1.80      (3.39)      (1.23)         (4.61)
1961-I       2.40        0.07            2.50       0.50      (0.09)             0.40         2.91      (0.02)            2.91
1961-II       7.70        0.48            8.30       0.80      (0.30)             0.50         8.56        0.18            8.84
1961-III       6.60        1.18            8.00       1.00        0.01             1.10         7.67        1.19            9.19
1961-IV       8.40      (0.22)            8.20       1.00      (0.16)             0.90         9.48      (0.38)            9.17
1962-I       7.40        0.56            8.00       2.30      (0.23)             2.10         9.87        0.33         10.27
1962-II       4.50      (1.51)            3.00       1.00        0.22             1.30         5.54      (1.29)            4.34
1962-III       3.70        1.39            5.30       1.10      (0.05)             1.00         4.84        1.34            6.35
1962-IV       1.00        0.63            1.60       1.40        0.06             1.50         2.41        0.69            3.12
1963-I       5.30      (0.86)            4.50       1.10        0.13             1.30         6.46      (0.73)            5.86
1963-II       5.10      (1.88)            3.20       0.40        0.11             0.50         5.52      (1.77)            3.72
1963-III       7.70        1.53            9.50       0.70        0.15             0.90         8.45        1.68         10.49
1963-IV       3.10      (1.04)            2.00       2.40        0.08             2.50         5.57      (0.96)            4.55
1964-I       9.30      (1.29)            8.00       1.50        0.11             1.60      10.94      (1.18)            9.73
1964-II       4.70        0.02            4.70       1.30        0.10             1.50         6.06        0.12            6.27
1964-III       5.50        0.60            6.30       2.00      (0.19)             1.80         7.61        0.41            8.21
1964-IV       1.10      (0.17)            1.00       1.80      (0.18)             1.70         2.92      (0.35)            2.72
1965-I    10.20        1.65          12.20       1.70      (0.33)             1.40      12.07        1.31         13.77
1965-II       5.50      (1.67)            3.90       1.80      (0.01)             1.80         7.40      (1.68)            5.77
1965-III       8.40        1.31            9.90       1.80        0.10             1.90      10.35        1.41         11.99
1965-IV    10.00      (0.64)            9.40       2.50        0.26             2.80      12.75      (0.38)         12.46
1966-I    10.20        0.82          11.20       2.50      (0.26)             2.30      12.96        0.56         13.76
1966-II       1.30      (0.44)            0.90       3.80        0.02             3.90         5.15      (0.42)            4.84
1966-III       2.70        1.82            4.60       3.80      (0.29)             3.50         6.60        1.52            8.26
1966-IV       3.30      (0.48)            2.80       3.60      (0.23)             3.30         7.02      (0.71)            6.19
1967-I       3.60      (0.13)            3.50       2.00      (0.35)             1.60         5.67      (0.48)            5.16
1967-II       0.10        0.03            0.10       2.50      (0.01)             2.50         2.60        0.02            2.60
1967-III       3.20        0.75            4.00       3.70        0.03             3.80         7.02        0.78            7.95
1967-IV       3.10        0.41            3.50       4.50      (0.11)             4.40         7.74        0.30            8.05
1968-I       8.50        0.54            9.10       4.40      (0.03)             4.40      13.27        0.51         13.90
1968-II       7.00      (0.12)            6.90       4.50      (0.29)             4.30      11.82      (0.41)         11.50
1968-III       2.80      (0.01)            2.80       3.90        0.30             4.20         6.81        0.29            7.12
1968-IV       1.70        0.10            1.80       5.70      (0.01)             5.70         7.50        0.09            7.60
1969-I       6.50        0.57            7.10       4.10      (0.22)             3.90      10.87        0.35         11.28
1969-II       1.20      (0.50)            0.70       5.50        0.05             5.50         6.77      (0.45)            6.24
1969-III       2.60        0.25            2.80       5.90      (0.15)             5.80         8.65        0.10            8.76
1969-IV    (1.90)      (0.98)          (2.80)       5.10        0.02             5.20         3.10      (0.96)            2.25
1970-I    (0.60)      (0.26)          (0.90)       5.70        0.23             5.90         5.07      (0.03)            4.95
1970-II       0.70      (0.57)            0.20       5.90      (0.22)             5.70         6.64      (0.79)            5.91
1970-III       3.60        0.02            3.70       3.20        0.56             3.80         6.92        0.58            7.64
1970-IV    (4.20)        0.12          (4.10)       5.20        0.12             5.30         0.78        0.24            0.98
1971-I    11.50      (0.39)          11.20       6.20      (0.15)             6.10      18.41      (0.54)         17.98
1971-II       2.30        1.65            4.00       5.50        0.01             5.50         7.93        1.66            9.72
1971-III       3.20      (0.43)            2.80       4.00        0.37             4.40         7.33      (0.06)            7.32
1971-IV       1.10        0.36            1.50       3.20        0.18             3.40         4.34        0.54            4.95
1972-I       7.30        0.88            8.30       6.70      (0.29)             6.40      14.49        0.59         15.23
1972-II       9.80      (0.23)            9.60       2.30        0.42             2.80      12.33        0.19         12.67
1972-III       3.90      (0.82)            3.00       3.70        0.28             4.00         7.74      (0.54)            7.12
1972-IV       6.80        0.11            6.90       4.80      (0.01)             4.80      11.93        0.10         12.03
1973-I    10.60      (0.61)          10.00       5.30        0.02             5.40      16.46      (0.59)         15.94
1973-II       4.70      (1.96)            2.70       6.80        0.77             7.70      11.82      (1.21)         10.61
1973-III    (2.10)      (0.78)          (3.00)       7.90      (0.41)             7.60         5.63      (1.19)            4.37
1973-IV       3.90      (1.16)            2.60       7.00        0.44             7.70      11.17      (0.73)         10.50
1974-I    (3.50)      (1.39)          (4.90)       8.50        2.13          11.10         4.70        0.71            5.66
1974-II       1.00        0.14            1.10       9.30        2.32          12.00      10.39        2.46         13.23
1974-III    (3.90)        1.26          (2.70)     13.10      (0.26)          12.90         8.69        1.00            9.85
1974-IV    (1.60)      (1.23)          (2.70)     12.90      (0.74)          12.20      11.09      (1.96)            9.17
1975-I    (4.80)      (3.81)          (8.30)       9.50      (0.52)             9.00         4.24      (4.31)         (0.05)
1975-II       3.10      (1.52)            1.70       5.90        0.15             6.20         9.18      (1.37)            8.01
1975-III       6.90        2.88          10.20       7.70      (0.60)             7.10      15.13        2.26         18.02
1975-IV       5.30      (0.26)            5.10       7.20      (0.19)             7.10      12.88      (0.45)         12.56
1976-I       9.40        2.11          11.80       4.60             -             4.60      14.43        2.11         16.94
1976-II       3.00        1.05            4.10       4.30        0.12             4.40         7.43        1.17            8.68
1976-III       2.00        0.39            2.40       5.50        0.39             5.90         7.61        0.78            8.44
1976-IV       2.90        0.77            3.70       7.00      (0.26)             6.70      10.10        0.51         10.65
1977-I       4.70        2.13            7.00       6.90        0.84             7.80      11.92        2.99         15.35
1977-II       8.20      (0.57)            7.50       6.50        0.51             7.00      15.23      (0.06)         15.03
1977-III       7.40      (0.77)            6.50       5.60        0.61             6.20      13.41      (0.16)         13.10
1977-IV    (0.10)        1.53            1.40       6.90        0.19             7.10         6.79        1.72            8.60
1978-I       1.40        1.75            3.00       6.80      (0.03)             6.70         8.30        1.72            9.90
1978-II    16.70      (3.20)          13.00       7.90        0.06             7.90      25.92      (3.14)         21.93
1978-III       4.00        0.14            4.00       7.10        0.04             7.10      11.38        0.18         11.38
1978-IV       5.40      (0.81)            4.50       8.40      (0.49)             7.90      14.25      (1.30)         12.76
1979-I       0.70      (0.14)            0.50       7.50        0.40             8.00         8.25        0.26            8.54
1979-II       0.40        0.10            0.50     10.10        0.49          10.60      10.54        0.59         11.15
1979-III       2.90      (1.89)            1.00       8.50        1.98          10.60      11.65        0.05         11.71
1979-IV       1.10      (1.41)          (0.20)       8.20        1.96          10.10         9.39        0.52            9.88
1980-I       1.30      (1.07)            0.30       9.10        2.38          11.50      10.52        1.28         11.83
1980-II    (7.90)      (4.08)       (11.50)       9.20        1.02          10.20         0.57      (3.10)         (2.47)
1980-III    (0.70)      (3.04)          (3.60)       9.40      (0.03)             9.40         8.63      (3.07)            5.46
1980-IV       7.60        2.31          10.20     11.80      (0.73)          11.00      20.30        1.56         22.32
1981-I       8.60        0.91            9.60     10.90      (0.03)          11.00      20.44        0.88         21.66
1981-II    (3.20)      (0.19)          (3.30)       7.30        0.03             7.40         3.87      (0.16)            3.86
1981-III       4.90        0.35            5.30       7.50      (1.19)             6.30      12.77      (0.84)         11.93
1981-IV    (4.90)        0.92          (4.00)       7.20      (0.07)             7.10         1.95        0.85            2.82
1982-I    (6.40)        0.49          (5.90)       5.80      (0.36)             5.40      (0.97)        0.13         (0.82)
1982-II       2.20      (0.84)            1.30       5.00      (0.66)             4.30         7.31      (1.49)            5.66
1982-III    (1.50)        3.31            1.80       5.70      (0.21)             5.40         4.11        3.09            7.30
1982-IV       0.30        0.10            0.40       4.30      (0.09)             4.10         4.61        0.01            4.52
1983-I       5.10        0.30            5.40       3.50      (0.89)             2.50         8.78      (0.59)            8.04
1983-II       9.30        2.54          12.00       3.00      (0.11)             2.80      12.58        2.43         15.14
1983-III       8.10        2.32          10.50       4.10      (0.11)             4.00      12.53        2.21         14.92
1983-IV       8.50        1.17            9.70       2.90      (0.55)             2.30      11.65        0.61         12.22
1984-I       8.00        2.37          10.40       5.10        0.07             5.10      13.51        2.44         16.03
1984-II       7.10        0.89            7.90       3.70        0.02             3.60      11.06        0.91         11.78
1984-III       3.90        0.36            4.20       3.30      (0.44)             2.80         7.33      (0.08)            7.12
1984-IV       3.30        0.58            3.80       2.40      (0.19)             2.10         5.78        0.39            5.98
1985-I       3.80      (0.91)            2.80       4.70      (0.67)             3.90         8.68      (1.57)            6.81
1985-II       3.40        2.01            5.40       2.10        0.28             2.30         5.57        2.30            7.82
1985-III       6.40        0.01            6.30       1.90        0.27             2.10         8.42        0.28            8.53
1985-IV       3.10        0.68            3.70       2.50        0.84             3.20         5.68        1.53            7.02
1986-I       3.90      (0.95)            2.90       2.00        0.25             2.20         5.98      (0.70)            5.16
1986-II       1.60        1.37            2.90       2.00      (1.16)             0.80         3.63        0.19            3.72
1986-III       3.90        0.47            4.30       2.50        0.38             2.90         6.50        0.85            7.32
1986-IV       1.90      (0.72)            1.20       2.90        0.21             3.10         4.86      (0.51)            4.34
1987-I       2.20      (0.23)            1.90       3.20        0.87             4.00         5.47        0.64            5.98
1987-II       4.30      (0.10)            4.10       2.30        0.63             2.90         6.70        0.53            7.12
1987-III       3.50      (0.45)            2.90       3.20        0.30             3.40         6.81      (0.15)            6.40
1987-IV       7.00      (0.18)            6.70       2.90        0.13             3.00      10.10      (0.05)            9.90
1988-I       2.10      (1.99)            0.10       3.30        0.24             3.40         5.47      (1.75)            3.50
1988-II       5.20      (1.47)            3.60       3.90        0.05             3.90         9.30      (1.42)            7.64
1988-III       2.10        0.36            2.40       4.80      (0.93)             3.80         7.00      (0.57)            6.29
1988-IV       5.50        0.21            5.60       3.30        0.42             3.60         8.98        0.63            9.40
1989-I       3.80      (0.86)            2.90       4.20        0.33             4.50         8.16      (0.53)            7.53
1989-II       3.00      (1.38)            1.60       4.00        0.42             4.40         7.12      (0.97)            6.07
1989-III       3.20      (0.48)            2.70       2.70      (0.51)             2.20         5.99      (0.99)            4.96
1989-IV       0.90        0.18            1.00       2.50        0.34             2.80         3.42        0.52            3.83
1990-I       4.20      (0.26)            3.90       4.90        0.62             5.50         9.31        0.36            9.61
1990-II       1.60      (0.58)            1.00       4.70      (0.89)             3.80         6.38      (1.46)            4.84
1990-III           -      (0.44)          (0.40)       3.80        0.85             4.60         3.80        0.41            4.18
1990-IV    (3.50)      (1.50)          (4.80)       3.30        1.77             5.10      (0.32)        0.24            0.06
1991-I    (1.90)      (0.75)          (2.60)       4.30      (1.52)             2.80         2.32      (2.26)            0.13
1991-II       2.70      (0.65)            2.10       2.80      (0.99)             1.80         5.58      (1.63)            3.94
1991-III       1.70        0.25            1.90       3.10      (0.40)             2.70         4.85      (0.15)            4.65
1991-IV       1.60             -            1.60       2.30        0.10             2.40         3.94        0.10            4.04
1992-I       4.50      (0.45)            4.00       2.30        0.24             2.50         6.90      (0.21)            6.60
1992-II       4.30        0.67            5.00       2.40        0.12             2.50         6.80        0.79            7.62
1992-III       4.20      (0.21)            4.00       1.80        0.54             2.30         6.08        0.33            6.39
1992-IV       4.30        0.80            5.10       2.30      (0.25)             2.00         6.70        0.55            7.20
1993-I       0.70        0.83            1.60       2.50      (0.27)             2.20         3.22        0.56            3.84
1993-II       2.60        0.40            3.00       2.20        0.06             2.20         4.86        0.46            5.27
1993-III       2.10        0.69            2.80       1.90      (0.35)             1.50         4.04        0.34            4.34
1993-IV       5.40        0.45            5.80       2.10      (0.16)             1.90         7.61        0.29            7.81
1994-I       4.00        0.62            4.60       2.20      (0.23)             2.00         6.29        0.39            6.69
1994-II       5.60        0.32            5.90       1.90        0.26             2.20         7.61        0.58            8.23
1994-III       2.60      (0.26)            2.30       2.30        0.55             2.80         4.96        0.29            5.16
1994-IV       4.50        0.39            4.90       2.10      (0.08)             2.00         6.69        0.31            7.00
1995-I       1.00        0.28            1.20       2.40      (0.05)             2.30         3.42        0.23            3.53
1995-II       0.90      (0.12)            0.70       1.80        0.37             2.10         2.72        0.25            2.81
1995-III       3.40      (1.72)            1.60       1.70      (0.20)             1.50         5.16      (1.92)            3.12
1995-IV       2.80      (0.03)            2.80       2.10      (0.24)             1.80         4.96      (0.27)            4.65
1996-I       2.80        0.99            3.80       2.20      (0.03)             2.10         5.06        0.96            5.98
1996-II       7.10        0.30            7.40       1.50      (0.11)             1.40         8.71        0.19            8.90
1996-III       3.50        1.18            4.70       2.00      (0.18)             1.80         5.57        1.00            6.58
1996-IV       4.40      (1.80)            2.60       1.80        0.45             2.30         6.28      (1.36)            4.96
1997-I       3.10        1.19            4.30       2.10      (0.24)             1.80         5.27        0.95            6.18
1997-II       6.10      (0.18)            5.90       1.80      (1.01)             0.70         8.01      (1.19)            6.64
1997-III       5.10        0.72            5.90       1.10      (0.19)             0.90         6.26        0.53            6.85
1997-IV       3.10        1.16            4.30       1.50      (0.20)             1.30         4.65        0.96            5.66
1998-I       3.80        1.66            5.50       0.60      (0.81)          (0.20)         4.42        0.84            5.29
1998-II       3.60        1.66            5.30       1.00      (0.39)             0.60         4.64        1.26            5.93
1998-III       5.40        0.86            6.20       1.50      (0.31)             1.20         6.98        0.55            7.47
1998-IV       7.10      (0.02)            7.00       1.10        0.12             1.20         8.28        0.10            8.28
1999-I       3.60        1.59            5.20       1.70      (0.07)             1.60         5.36        1.52            6.88
1999-II       3.20        1.14            4.30       1.70        0.55             2.20         4.95        1.70            6.59
1999-III       5.20        0.80            5.90       1.40        0.55             1.90         6.67        1.35            7.91
1999-IV       7.40        0.22            7.40       1.70        0.57             2.20         9.23        0.79            9.76
2000-I       1.10        1.53            2.50       3.10        0.75             3.70         4.23        2.29            6.29
2000-II       8.00        0.50            8.30       2.00      (0.28)             1.70      10.16        0.22         10.14
2000-III       0.30        0.98            1.30       2.40        0.28             2.60         2.71        1.26            3.93
2000-IV       2.40        0.30            2.60       2.00        0.25             2.20         4.45        0.55            4.86
2001-I    (1.30)      (0.30)          (1.50)       2.80      (0.28)             2.40         1.46      (0.58)            0.86
2001-II       2.70      (0.33)            2.20       2.80      (0.93)             1.80         5.58      (1.26)            4.04
2001-III    (1.10)        0.79          (0.30)       1.30      (0.67)             0.60         0.19        0.11            0.30
2001-IV       1.40        0.48            1.80       1.10      (0.84)             0.30         2.52      (0.36)            2.11
2002-I       3.50        0.70            4.00       1.50      (0.05)             1.40         5.05        0.65            5.46
2002-II       2.10        0.76            2.80       1.80        0.88             2.60         3.94        1.65            5.47
2002-III       2.00        0.62            2.60       1.80        0.04             1.70         3.84        0.66            4.34
2002-IV       0.10        1.35            1.50       2.30        0.28             2.50         2.40        1.63            4.04
2003-I       1.70      (0.36)            1.30       2.80        1.23             3.90         4.55        0.87            5.25
2003-II       3.40        0.89            4.20       1.20      (0.87)             0.30         4.64        0.01            4.51
2003-III       6.70      (0.39)            6.10       2.20        0.17             2.30         9.05      (0.22)            8.54
2003-IV       3.70        0.30            3.80       2.10        0.02             2.10         5.88        0.32            5.98
2004-I       2.70        0.54            3.10       3.40        0.74             4.10         6.19        1.28            7.33
2004-II       2.60        1.74            4.20       3.50        0.30             3.60         6.19        2.05            7.95
2004-III       3.00        0.60            3.40       3.00        0.40             3.20         6.09        1.00            6.71
2004-IV       3.30        0.65            3.80       3.00        1.02             3.80         6.40        1.68            7.74
2005-I       4.20      (0.40)            3.60       3.80        0.08             3.60         8.16      (0.32)            7.33
2005-II       1.80      (0.19)            1.50       2.70        0.59             3.10         4.55        0.40            4.65
2005-III       3.20        0.36            3.40       4.20        1.01             4.90         7.53        1.37            8.47
2005-IV       2.10        0.75            2.70       3.40        0.97             4.10         5.57        1.73            6.91
2006-I       5.10      (0.44)            4.50       3.00      (0.01)             2.80         8.25      (0.45)            7.43
2006-II       1.60      (0.01)            1.60       3.60        0.17             3.50         5.26        0.16            5.16
2006-III       0.10        0.72            0.70       3.00             -             2.90         3.10        0.72            3.62
2006-IV       2.70      (1.95)            0.70       1.80      (0.79)             1.00         4.55      (2.72)            1.71
2007-I       0.50        0.25            0.80       4.60        0.03             4.50         5.12        0.28            5.34
2007-II       3.60      (0.42)            3.10       2.80        0.55             3.20         6.50        0.13            6.40
2007-III       3.00      (1.55)            1.30       1.30        0.80             2.00         4.34      (0.76)            3.33
2007-IV       1.70      (2.22)          (0.50)       1.90        1.98             3.70         3.63      (0.28)            3.18
2008-I    (1.80)      (0.38)          (2.10)       2.50        1.76             4.10         0.65        1.37            1.91
2008-II       1.30      (2.00)          (0.70)       2.50        2.14             4.50         3.83        0.10            3.77
2008-III    (3.70)      (0.79)          (4.20)       3.10        1.10             4.00      (0.71)        0.30         (0.37)
2008-IV    (8.90)        0.12          (8.30)       0.50      (4.77)          (4.00)      (8.44)      (4.66)       (11.97)
2009-I    (6.70)      (2.44)          (8.60)       1.70      (3.60)          (1.90)      (5.11)      (5.95)       (10.34)
2009-II    (0.70)      (2.21)          (2.80)     (0.40)        0.92             0.50      (1.10)      (1.31)         (2.31)
2009-III       1.70        0.59            2.20       0.30        1.37             1.60         2.01        1.97            3.84
2009-IV       3.80      (0.15)            3.50       1.10        1.01             2.10         4.94        0.86            5.67
2010-I       3.90        0.97            4.80       1.50        0.66             2.10         5.46        1.64            7.00
2010-II       3.80        1.94            5.60       1.50      (0.97)             0.50         5.36        0.95            6.13
2010-III       2.50        0.68            3.10       1.40      (0.43)             1.00         3.94        0.25            4.13
2010-IV       2.30      (1.37)            0.90       1.90        0.26             2.10         4.24      (1.11)            3.02
2011-I       0.40        0.34            0.70       2.50        1.57             4.00         2.91        1.92            4.73
2011-II       1.30      (0.24)            1.00       2.50        0.93             3.30         3.83        0.69            4.33

Let’s start with the definition of Gross Domestic Purchases, which I think more closely tracks the way average Americans feel than Gross Domestic Product does.

Gross domestic purchases

The market value of goods and services purchased by U.S. residents, regardless of where those goods and services were produced. It is gross domestic product (GDP) minus net exports of goods and services. Equivalently, it is the sum of personal consumption expenditures (PCE)gross private domestic investment, and government consumption expenditures and gross investment.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Pretty simple — GDP minus net exports equals Gross Domestic Purchases.  The trouble is that import price increases increase real GDP relative to real GD purchases.

Note well: IPD stands for implicit price deflator, which is a comprehensive measure of inflation.  Also, figures may not add due to rounding, timing differences, and errors in revisions.

But what I would like to point out from the last three quarters on Gross Domestic Purchases, is that the economy is growing at less than 1%, and inflation is running higher than 3%.

I realize that these could be statistical anomalies, but Gross Domestic Purchases is far closer to what the average American feels than GDP or GNP.  My main point is that we have a slow-growing economy in inflation adjusted terms, while felt inflation is rising.






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One Response to Not so Good, Not so Bad

  1. Ricardo says:

    Good info. Might want to add Column Headings to bottom of table. So much data makes it difficult to figure out which number corresponds to what. I had to c&p to a spreadsheet to figure it out.

    Thanks,

    Ricardo

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