On Penny Stocks

I am often a fan of neglected small cap stocks.  When I find a good one, I add it to my portfolio.  But I am generally not a fan of stocks that trade below $1.00.  Why?  Because there are many promoters of the stocks who deceive those who are illiterate regarding the markets, promising big gains, but end up delivering significant losses.

I see lots of penny stock ads.  Big deal. But one ad got under my skin.  This article was motivated by an ad that said, “Penny stocks made me rich.”  Now, there may be a handful of people for which that is true, but in general, those that invest in penny stocks lose money.

There is a constant in investing, that amateurs who invest in volatile asset classes tend to lose money, and more money as the asset classes get more volatile.  Penny stocks are volatile in the extreme.  Even leaving aside the promoters who pump-and-dump, it is a rare person who can approach these in a businesslike manner.

But now, if I can, I’d like to describe the penny stock universe to you.  Here is how penny stocks differ versus the market as a whole:

Because biotech companies tend to be small, and have a high failure rate, the healthcare sector is much larger for penny stocks.  With basic materials, the adage that a gold mine is a hole with a liar at its mouth holds true.  Thus there are more companies in those two sectors.

Services, Energy, Consumer Noncyclicals, and Utilities are all industries where there are increasing returns to scale, and where minimizing costs likely dominate over trying to offer specialized products that add value.

Now let’s look at penny stocks segmented by sector and size.  Same sectors, but the $21 billion of market capitalization that the 2,800+ penny stocks live in are divided into five roughly equal quintiles by market capitalization.

Here’s the breakdown:

The financials have Fannie, Freddie, and some other large failed banks in the first quintile.

Health Care has a lot of companies, regardless of size.  Services, Basic Materials, Energy and Technology are similarly consistent.  Many small companies pursuing advantage versus much larger competitors.

The smaller sectors are random as should be expected. There is no surprise there.  After all, they don’t have advantages from economies of scale.

Here is my final table:

In general, the smaller the market capitalization gets, the less liquid the stocks are.  This is not perfectly linear, because there are promoters pumping and dumping the stocks in the lowest quintile. (and in higher quintiles as well.)  The larger the market capitalization, the harder it is to pump-and-dump.

So be wary when buying stocks with small market capitalizations.  All the more, pay attention to balance sheets, revenue recognition policies, and other accounting quality measures.  Act like an intelligent value investor, if you dare, because you are playing on dangerous ground.  There are safer places to play, go elsewhere.  Don’t let the seeming cheapness delude you.  This is an area where accounting frauds are rife, and where ordinary investors lose a lot.

DON’T BUY PENNY STOCKS.






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4 Responses to On Penny Stocks

  1. [...] How to play penny stocks:  don’t.  (Aleph Blog) [...]

  2. Michael Goode says:

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    I think the most important distinction to make is based not on price or liquidity or market cap but on market. 99% of pump and dumps are OTCBB or Pink Sheet stocks, not Nasdaq/Amex/NYSE issues. Avoiding OTCBB and Pinksheet stocks is the most important. Penny stocks with listings on major stock markets are much less likely to be scams / pump & dumps but they are likely distressed firms on the verge of bankruptcy or hope and dream biotechs.

    Market cap isn’t the most important thing — take a look at the pump & dump POTG.pk — at a recent price of 0.36 and with 4.452 billion shares outstanding it has a market cap of $1.6 billion.

    http://www.otcmarkets.com/edgar/GetFilingHtml?FilingID=8145908

  3. Mr. Bean says:

    Back in the 1980s I took a flyer on a company called DentoMed, a penny stock. I bought at $1.50 and sold at $3.50. I figured I was doing good making over 100% on my 1000 shares. You know, that stock went up to $16.50 before it crashed back to $1.00. What most investors do not know is that many brokages houses make the market for the penny stocks. My father did the same thing back in the early 60s with a cosmetic company . Turned out that a brokerage in Philidelphia was making the market, driving the prices up. He took his modest profit and got out. Yes, you can make money in penny stocks, but I figure you are lucky if you do. The problem is, you don’t know who is making the market for the particular stock. I could afford to gamble with $1500, and I made $2000, wonderful. But I could have lost money. My point is, I could afford the loss. But at 10,000 shares or more? No way. Now weare talking real money.

Disclaimer


David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures.


Also, though David runs Aleph Investments, LLC, this blog is not a part of that business. This blog exists to educate investors, and give something back. It is not intended as advertisement for Aleph Investments; David is not soliciting business through it. When David, or a client of David's has an interest in a security mentioned, full disclosure will be given, as has been past practice for all that David does on the web. Disclosure is the breakfast of champions.


Additionally, David may occasionally write about accounting, actuarial, insurance, and tax topics, but nothing written here, at RealMoney, or anywhere else is meant to be formal "advice" in those areas. Consult a reputable professional in those areas to get personal, tailored advice that meets the specialized needs that David can have no knowledge of.

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