Day: December 31, 2011

Goodbye 2011

Goodbye 2011

I tried to think of a post where I would bring out the best of 2011 economically, but the best I could some up with was, “It could have been worse.” That doesn’t convey much fondness.

2011 was characterized by using debt to “solve” debt problems.? Avoid default, extend the loan.? Or, let a public entity refinance the loan.

2011 was a year of rebellion — more pointedly in the Arab world, late to Russia and China, and lazy in the US.? Lefter then most leftists, like Marx, they assume that a wimpy “protest” will produce change.? Sorry, you have to organize, produce leaders, and either influence existing parties or create a new one, or, fight (of which I am not in favor).? If “Occupy” can’t do that, it ain’t worth a warm bucket of spit.

And personally, I am disappointed in those that have come out in favor of Occupy, not because their many contradictory causes don’t have merit, but because Occupy is so singularly ineffectual.? “You say you want a revolution, weelll you know, we all would like to change the world.”? Talk is cheap.? Disorganized talk and effort is pollution, not cheap; we would pay to have it eliminated.? Either organize, or be gone.

As far as the stock market went, it was volatile, but went nowhere.? As for me, I had my worst relative performance calendar year in 12+ years being down 1% while the S&P 500 was up 2%, with dividends.

The US politics of 2011 was nothing abnormal — we have had other periods of delay and intransigence, but few where we ran such huge deficits, and for so little good.? (Congress has not declared war, after all.)? Personally, I am for Ron Paul, not because I like everything that he stands for, but because his delegates have the best odd of deadlocking the Republican Convention, and leading to the selection of another candidate far better than the midgets currently out there.? Personally, I think primaries are overrated, and think we might be better off with conventions where parties analyze/fight over who would be the best candidate.

Never have we had a world so indebted, where there are so many fixed claims asking to be paid out at par.? The future has ugly surprises awaiting creditors — you won’t get repaid in full, whether by inflation or compromise.? Overages of debt clamor to become equity, and only such a change will heal the global economy.

If you are a lender, analyze your portfolio and adjust it where you can to the strongest borrowers.

But goodybye 2011, it was not a good year for me, and for many.? May 2012 be far better, and may we see orthodox policies triumph, even if prosperity lags.

PS — and eliminate or curb the Fed, please.?? If there is dirty work to be done, let Congress do it so we can vote them out.? Would that Ron Paul is our next President with a a compliant Congress that will rip out and eliminate our third failed central bank.? We would have some hard times for a number of years, but once they end, the growth would be strong.

Recent Tweets

Recent Tweets

I’m going to try as an experiment publishing my tweets at my blog.? They highlight significant articles that I have read.? Let me know if you want me to do this regularly.? Alternatively, you can get my tweets via RSS or email, as I described here.

Anyway, here are the tweets:

China?s Top 10 Business Stories in 2011 http://bit.ly/rRN3S0 Patrick Chovanec, professor in China gives his perspectives on a tough year $$

 

Job Creation Is Price for US Health Law bloom.bg/rK5s7R Inflexible mandates on business tend to decrease jobs in the economy $$ #yup

 

Spain says deficit bigger than expected, hikes taxes reut.rs/vF8gLj Spain goes for austerity amid large budget deficits. Surprise! $$

 

Fear Recoupling in ?12, Not the End of the World bloom.bg/unlphk Pesek on dangers from Asian economic 2nd-order effects in 2012 $$

 

Heterodox economics: Marginal revolutionaries econ.st/tGlNai The Economist on the effect economics bloggers have on the mainstream $$

 

Bonds Prove Best Financial Asset in 2011 bloom.bg/tvL3z5 Leave aside Shilling, Hoisington & a few others. Who called this? I didn’t.

 

Major Dubai companies ?may need bail-outs? tgr.ph/v00OEW It is usually not wise to lend money on projects that are grandiose. $$ #duh

 

Borrowing From ECB Jumps on.wsj.com/vFlbpR If banks wont lend 2 each other bit.ly/v42Tw7 then CBs must lend 2 banks $$ #liquiditytrap

 

SSgA Files For Short-Term Junk Bond ETF bit.ly/tZFizH A promising idea that will get overdone, leading to losses. Nonrated CP anyone?

 

The Germans have many conflicting goals $$ RT @calculatedrisk: Merkel: “Will do everything to strengthen the euro” goo.gl/fb/vxa3h

 

Maybe 2 cents in dividends? RT @BCAppelbaum: If you put $1 in the S&P 500 at the beginning of the year, you would end the year with… $1 $$

 

TED Spread on Watch for Breakout bit.ly/v42Tw7 Short-term lending getting tight, banks don’t trust each other; CBs 2 the rescue? $$

 

A Margin for Error in Hedge-Fund Filings on.wsj.com/sC7KAO Might some hedge funds b mismarking their less liquid stocks? bonds? X? $$

 

BIS Describes the Exposure of Emerging Markets to Europe bit.ly/vJ3w1a Credit slowing down from EZone 2 emerging markets, GDP slowing

 

Deepening Crisis Over Euro Pits Leader Against Leader on.wsj.com/v1pjlz Tale of how Angela Merkel undercut Berlusconi. Clever lady $$

 

Gloomy Picture for Banks in Europe’s Core on.wsj.com/vQftdv EZone Govt’s & banks depend on each other; 2 drunks holding each other up

 

The Q Ratio and Market Valuation bit.ly/tkbOnp Good article going over the Q ratio, what it means, how to calculate & forecast $$

 

California Barred by Judge From Cutting Medi-Cal Rates bloom.bg/uSFCCX Expect this pattern to repeat in a fight over priorities $$

 

Hospice Turns Months-to-Live Patient Into Addict bloom.bg/s0WCiH Misdiagnosis of time to live can create addicted elderly folks $$

 

Contra: Republicans, Lost in Moderation bloom.bg/vCrabB Did the Republicans win more elections b4 or after conservatives took over?

 

Banks Continue to Stockpile Agency MBS bit.ly/tOMvNz Nice credit-risk free asset to pair against cheap funds from the Fed. $$

 

Tough Markets: Punishing Hedge Funds Since 2003 on.wsj.com/vPf2UN Hedge funds in aggregate r yield hogs & abhor volatility $$

 

End of Corn Ethanol? bit.ly/v599bC US ended a 30Yr subsidy 4 corn-based ethanol that cost $6B/yr & ended tariff Brazilian ethanol $$

 

China is a Closed Communist Economy, concludes research bit.ly/ucMjsH The Party is still in control & directs the use of resources $$

 

What Deleveraging? bit.ly/vj9jmZ What is this deleveraging you continue to babble about . . . ? $$

 

ReformedBroker Downtown Josh Brown

Anytime I get nervous about the US economy, I just look over at how calm and stable China seems to be and I feel much better.

Retweeted by AlephBlog

The public sphere is different, where the ECB takes lower-quality collateral; that seems to be loosening things up a bit for now $$

 

European Bank Worry: Collateral on.wsj.com/sbkgGT In the private sphere, loans can only gotten by pledges of hi-quality collateral $$

 

The most stable, dividend paying sectors have the highest PEs, the most cyclical elements tand to have the lowest PEs now. $$ #fear #yield

 

S&P 500 PE 11.85, Industrials 12.37, Discretionary 13.71, Staples 14.59, Utilities 14.72, Telecom 16.84… do you see the pattern? $$

 

The S&P and Sector P/E Ratios bit.ly/rz4LKA Financials 9.68, Energy 10.26, Materials 11.37, Healthcare 11.46, Technology 11.67 $$

 

Forecasting Asset Price Booms bit.ly/tOwuNN The fool does at the end of the boom what the wise man does at the beginning $$

 

Spikes in Bank Stock Volatility Precede Economic Trouble, suggests research bit.ly/vhMdqz Volatility flows through banks 2 economy $$

 

Forecasting Oil Prices with Economic Data bit.ly/toKHW4 Real crude prices go up when global econ conditions r strong $$ surprise, not

 

Investment Advisers Likely To Bear Cost Of More Oversight on.wsj.com/s3REK0 Could put small advisers like me out of business $$

 

Lure of Chinese Tuition Squeezes Out Asian-Americans at California Schools bloom.bg/scxHZm State schools becoming more like private

 

India to Exceed Its Record Borrowing Target bloom.bg/tiMnMi Too many governments r caught on a borrowing treadmill; can’t get off $$

 

China needs new policy course as capital tide turns reut.rs/vmMWsx China will likely have to reduce the reserve ratio at its banks $$

 

Phantom firms bleed millions from Medicare reut.rs/uJOps5 Looong article on how fraud bleeds a lotta $$ out of Medicare->shell comps

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