Archive for January 8th, 2012

Stock Idea Series

Sunday, January 8th, 2012

Every now and then an idea strikes me, and I wonder if it would be worth trying.  Here’s one: much of the stuff that passes for analysis of stocks on the web leaves me cold.  It feels like a computer spit out a few ratios, with standard verbiage.

What if I chose some stocks at random, and analyzed them?

I set up a random selector for 10 stocks relative to their market capitalization.  My first group of 10 came out as follows:

  1. Sun Life Financial Inc. (USA)
  2. Vodafone Group Plc (ADR)
  3. ORIX Corporation (ADR)
  4. C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.
  5. Nippon Telegraph & Telephone C
  6. Ms&Ad Insurance Group Holding
  7. National Grid plc (ADR)
  8. Greenhill & Co., Inc.
  9. Carnival Corporation
  10. TTM Technologies, Inc.

I’ve heard of #10, but don’t know what it does.  I have not heard of #6, despite my knowledge of the insurance industry.  The other 8 I know something about.  My inclination would be to go for the ones I know nothing about.  Odds are there is no coverage of them at all, at least in the US.  I would likely choose #6.  So what is it?

MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. is a Japan-based holding company. Through its subsidiaries and associated companies, the Company operates four business segments in both domestic and overseas markets. The Domestic Non-Life Insurance segment is engaged in non-life insurance businesses. The Domestic Life Insurance segment is engaged in the life insurance businesses. The Overseas segment is engaged in the overseas related businesses. The Financial Service and Risk Related segment is involved in two divisions. The financial service division is engaged in the asset management, financial security, 401 k, alternative risk transfer (ART), personal loan and venture capital businesses. The risk related service division is engaged in the risk management, nursing care and asset evaluation businesses, among others. As of March 31, 2011, the Company had 121 subsidiaries and 28 associated companies.

It’s not a small company.  The market cap is $11 billion.  This one seems complex — looks like fun. :)

Run the random selector again, and I get this:

  1. Gladstone Commercial Corporati
  2. Alliant Techsystems Inc.
  3. Cemex SAB de CV (ADR)
  4. 3D Systems Corporation
  5. Canandaigua National Corporati
  6. Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company
  7. PHI Inc.
  8. Royal Bank of Canada (USA)
  9. Edison International
  10. Rayonier Inc.

I know something about 7 out of 10. Numbers 1, 4, and 5 are a mystery to me, and respectively, they are a REIT, a 3D printer company, and a small bank holding company.  I would probably choose #4 for the analysis, because it is more fun for me to analyze a nonfinancial company.  Maybe I should choose differently because I understand financials better than many.  Advice is requested.

I filter out companies with less than $10 million of market cap, and CEFs & ETFs.  Now, I’m not sure how much time it would take me to write these out.  If it’s too much, I won’t do it.  But if I did do it, how much interest would you have?

Now, the natural inclination is for those with some interest to write me, and those with no interest to be silent.  I’d really like to hear from those with no interest.  Regardless, let me know in the comments section.  Thanks.

Disclaimer


David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures.


Also, though David runs Aleph Investments, LLC, this blog is not a part of that business. This blog exists to educate investors, and give something back. It is not intended as advertisement for Aleph Investments; David is not soliciting business through it. When David, or a client of David's has an interest in a security mentioned, full disclosure will be given, as has been past practice for all that David does on the web. Disclosure is the breakfast of champions.


Additionally, David may occasionally write about accounting, actuarial, insurance, and tax topics, but nothing written here, at RealMoney, or anywhere else is meant to be formal "advice" in those areas. Consult a reputable professional in those areas to get personal, tailored advice that meets the specialized needs that David can have no knowledge of.

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