Day: January 27, 2012

Recent Tweets

Recent Tweets

  • Stinks RT @s_m_i: RT @hedgefundinvest: RT @financialpost: Twitter to censor content in some countries http://t.co/zhnzV1Qo Jan 27, 2012
  • When the Reps win, wants 2b FedChair RT @pdacosta: Fed activism harms US growth, former Fed board governor Warsh says http://t.co/Tht5YyHi Jan 27, 2012
  • I’m different. I gained my net worth little by little through investing, and have kept it. My wife is glad she married me, and not my friend Jan 27, 2012
  • that I made to him in March 2009, with stock conversion rights. Many entrepreneurs r this way; they are not geared to preserving wealth. $$ Jan 27, 2012
  • An example: I have a friend who is presently very wealthy. He has nearly gone broke four times in the last decade. Pays me 13% on a loan + Jan 27, 2012
  • Angry about inequality? Don?t blame the rich. http://t.co/CV0GE1Gg Being rich is more fluid than most think. Rise fast, fall fast 4 many $$ Jan 27, 2012
  • Apple’s Dirt-Cheap Stock and the Fiduciary Theory of the Firm http://t.co/DtV2kK7P Me: Risk of tech obsolesence & mkt saturation -> low PE Jan 27, 2012
  • @Nonrelatedsense That’s funny. I didn’t see that because my browser blocks pop-ups. Jan 27, 2012
  • The chase for yield is on http://t.co/ISJ6MmLx High yield market looks a little frothy now. 73% of all HY CEFs trade at a premium to NAV. $$ Jan 27, 2012
  • Risk Bites Back: Lessons Learned From The Harvard Endowment http://t.co/Ch4s7jbP Similar to my article: http://t.co/Ycu95PCU Guard liquidity Jan 27, 2012
  • At minimum, desirable asset classes must be chosen and given weights. Then adjustment strategy; rebalance vs momentum. These invlv forecasts Jan 27, 2012
  • Tactical Management and Flawed Forecasting http://t.co/2VWePjbf All asset allocation implicitly involves a forecast. Jan 27, 2012
  • US Sovereign Debt Tipping Point Scenarios, Symposium by George Mason University http://t.co/QDFe1BJP 5 scenarios, but I can think of more $$ Jan 27, 2012
  • Tin Gains as Prospect of Low Fed Rates Boosts Speculation of Higher Demand http://t.co/zYYQXHVM I think the correlation is rather tenuous Jan 27, 2012
  • The GOP Goes MAD http://t.co/F7CoZQBl The candidates go thermonuclear, but the party itself may get hit. Lotta mudslinging going on $$ Jan 26, 2012
  • @groditi Yes, and Vale tried to strike some deal w/the Chinese to lessen the pain, and the Chinese stiffed them Jan 26, 2012
  • New Jersey Pensions Earn 1.7% in 2011 http://t.co/8vHP7Ok7 Add in the effects of low interest rates & funding levels fall considerably $$ Jan 26, 2012
  • One Third of New Yorkers Can?t Retire http://t.co/o8VFsw2v This is not news; a lot of people did not plan well, compounded w/no interest Jan 26, 2012
  • Merkel Masters Markets With Euro Austerity Mollifying Investors http://t.co/DSrJaAFZ She seems to be getting her way, bit by bit $$ Jan 26, 2012
  • Gingrich Attacks Romney Over Swiss Account http://t.co/AXzEC9ij Populism is a dangerous thing to swallow; read the warning label first $$ Jan 26, 2012
  • The squeeze on dollar funding in the Eurozone continues http://t.co/BZxSdJOc Will probably continue the demand for USD swap lines by ECB $$ Jan 26, 2012
  • US Banks Face Pressure on Margins From Fed Policy http://t.co/yzXGroUm Flat front end of yield curve steadily crushes interest margins $$ Jan 26, 2012
  • No Slower Steaming as Container Lines Run Like Clippers http://t.co/N9G7Ltgu This one made me pause. The shipping glut has funny effects Jan 26, 2012
  • Deteriorating employment situation in France http://t.co/EuTX0Go0 A clear sign of deteriorating economic conditions in the E-Zone as a whole Jan 26, 2012
  • Uralkali Ready to Cut Potash Output to Shield Price http://t.co/yqPjHQEZ Potash producers cutting production globally; can’t b good 4 Agri Jan 26, 2012
  • ?Stop-Newt? Republicans Confront New Base http://t.co/UZEdELQr This ain’t your Father’s Republican Party. Less of a party more of a fracas Jan 26, 2012
  • The Real Margaret Thatcher Story http://t.co/Ul6dyr3N “Lesson: governments cannot permanently live beyond their means had been learned.” Jan 26, 2012
  • More Drones, Fewer Troops http://t.co/D94fBRsm This doesn’t look smart to me, & makes America look like more of a empire than it is. $$ Jan 26, 2012
  • @The_Analyst After Great Depression the Flubs were established by the Flub Act of 1932 – provide funds 2 “building and loan” institutions $$ Jan 26, 2012
  • Egypt Bans LaHood, Other Americans From Leaving http://t.co/SVz5DBAn Military alleges foreign nationals are sowing dissent among masses Jan 26, 2012
  • Banks Hoarding ECB Cash to Double Company Defaults http://t.co/TPPvb33z European companies needing liquidity are not getting it from banks Jan 26, 2012
  • Ron Paul, the Fed and the Need for a Stable Dollar http://t.co/fwTrW2B3 Fed policy hurts savers aids government. Policy stability needed Jan 26, 2012
  • 2 bright ladies who know bonds RT @cabaum1: I’ll be opining on Fed folderol w/ my pal @Kathleen_Hays on WBBR’s Hays Advantage @12:45pm today Jan 26, 2012
  • @munilass It’s been fun 4 us. I hope u have an even better time of it. Jan 26, 2012
  • @munilass My wife says that u forget the pain w/the joy of the child. We also have 5 adopted kids; youngest turns 10 soon. Life changes fast Jan 26, 2012
  • @munilass My sympathies. Having a baby is wonderous, though I always pitied my wife during her 3 deliveries. Hope it goes well for u & baby. Jan 26, 2012
  • @SoberLook Thanks. Appreciate your blog. Jan 26, 2012
  • @interfluidity Thanks. Many thanks. Jan 26, 2012
  • @interfluidity Thanks, I appreciate it. I always wonder at myself when I get too hard. Jan 26, 2012
  • @interfluidity Thanks. I am not trying to beat up on Bernanke, as much as trying to point out the inconsistencies involved in his policies. Jan 26, 2012
  • @PlanMaestro Not sure, I am imitating @HistorySquared, who I appreciate. Aside from that, a number of readers asked for it. $$ Jan 26, 2012
On Junk Bonds

On Junk Bonds

If someone were to ask me my opinion on Junk Bonds at present, fool that he would be to ask me because I know real experts elsewhere, I would say this: They are good for a speculative trade, but dumb money has arrived.? Be ready to sell when the momentum fails.

High yield ETFs sell at decent premiums which leads to the creation of more units.? High yield closed-end funds — 73% trade at a premium.? You could issue a new high yield CEF, and come out at a lower premium than the current average.? I think I smell smoke.

Hmm….? If I owned junk bonds I would hold, and wait for momentum failure.? Buying now seems risky to me.? Most of the risk stems from global conditions.? We don’t know what will happen in the Eurozone. The rest of the risk stems from speculation.

I am a fan of junk bonds when nobody likes them, but there are too many fans now, and for bad reasons, most of which boil down to “I am old and I need income.? The fed has eliminated good choices for income, but I need income anyway, so get me yield.”

I had a conversation with a friend of mine in her upper 70s today where she asked “why are you suggesting I sell my funds that provide the most income?”? I said that I did not trust junk bonds at present and would look to lighten up, besides, the fund she owned has underperformed over the last 10 years.? If she really wanted income from junk bonds, I would look for a new fund for her.? So I am looking for a new HY fund, with an arm twisted behind my back.? It’s not the right idea, but she won’t listen.? (She’s not paying me.? I help my friends as best I can.)

The illusion of yield drives many older investors; they need income, and the delusional Fed thinks that low yields will yield prosperity.? It may make some people take more risk, but it will not yield prosperity.? There will be a lot of impoverished old people at the end of this, and they will be angry — at themselves, their advisors,? and the powers that be.

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This is not to say say that junk spreads are low; they are moderate to high at present.? But the spread relationship is manipulated by the Fed at present, making spreads seem high.? No market is truly free, but the Treasury market is affected by the Fed to a high degree.? The high quality bond market follows Treasuries closely.? Junk bonds don’t.? Junk bonds follow a hybrid of what Treasuries and common stocks are doing.? With stocks doing well, junk bonds run as well.

But we are still in an environment where more things can go wrong than right.? Until the US government figures out how to finance itself, we are in dangerous territory.? Given present political conditions, I don’t see how that works out; everything looks like a stalemate at present.

So be wary, and don’t overcommit to risk assets.? I would be neutral on risk assets at presemt, but ready to be bearish if there are problems in Europe or China.

 

 

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